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How to get Canada's oil to export markets?

Admiral Beez

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*cross-posted to Justin Trudeau's Canada thread*

Just in time for Kinder-Morgan shareholders to approve swindling Canada out of 4.5B dollars.......... The Federal Court of Appeals has quashed the approval of Trans Mountain, delaying it indefinitely.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...ottawas-approval-of-trans-mountain-expansion/

I am beyond exasperated by the nationalization of a loss, where profit would have been private.

The precedent this sets, unless overturned by the SCC will likely stifle any new pipelines for the foreseeable future, certainly any that would involve a shipping component.

I stated how this all could have been avoided while pleasing the folks in AB....sigh.
Notwithstanding clause, dig on.

Ottawa’s position is that the pipeline is of strategic importance to the nation. Either the government or the court is going to have to step aside on this one.
 

Jasmine18

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Trudeau fucked up on NAFTA, and his carbon tax is pretty much dead, yet his supporters say he is doing great.
 

Admiral Beez

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Johnny Au

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Why are we using so much profanity on UT recently?

Urban Toronto Rules Of Conduct
https://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/urban-toronto-rules-of-conduct.7113/

- No sexist, racist or offensive language of any kind will be allowed.
- Make sure your posts contribute something meaningful to the thread.
I came to UrbanToronto to read about various issues that affect Toronto and related without the toxicity of white lowercase sixth-letters of the alphabet on blue squares, cyan right-facing canaries, or white noseless extraterrestrials with red eyes and a single antenna on the head (those three are often cited on this website though).

To the mods: it would be great to install a swear filter (that can be optionally toggled on or off).
 
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BurlOak

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I came to UrbanToronto to read about various issues that affect Toronto and related without the toxicity of white lowercase sixth-letters of the alphabet on blue squares, cyan right-facing canaries, or white noseless extraterrestrials with red eyes and a single antenna on the head (those three are often cited on this website).

To the mods, it would be great to install a swear filter (that can be optionally toggled on or off).
I would be for not allowing swearing - but perhaps it's difficult to define.

After all, our PM has uttered both S**t and F**k in the House of Commons. It's easy to assume that the younger generation sees nothing wrong with this type of language.
 

kEiThZ

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There's a long term issue that Trudeau hasn't yet come to terms with. And that the Conservatives are all but clueless about. Ditto the average Canadian that I talk to.

The devaluing of oil.

The Europeans are moving to ban all new sales of gas and diesel vehicles by 2040. With several cities moving to ban them by 2030. With some rather lofty target goals for the sales of electric vehicles over there by 2030. Half of all sales will be EVs by then. Smaller countries like Israel or Iceland where range isn't as much of an issue are going for full bans by 2030. And larger countries like India and China are moving on ban by 2040 to 2050. The news of last weeks IPCC conclusion is driving immediate policy consequences:

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/automoti...-2030-after-dire-un-climate-report/1516845066

Those seem like far out dates until you consider how futures markets work. At the minute you figure out that oil is a useless commodity, futures will start trading lower. The oil sands being an expensive production zone will suffer first. With investment drying up almost overnight. We could start seeing some of this as early as 2023-2025, whenever that "tipping point" is reached. You have mainstream business analysts now looking at this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

Nobody in Canada. Politicians or citizens, seems to understand this. And that's because most people are terrible at understanding non-linear trends. And the implications are just massive for us. We're a country that's piddling in productivity (gdp/hr on par with Italy) with an over-reliance on energy and other resource exports and real estate. What are we going to do if oil exports collapse suddenly?

ps. A simple exercise to see if you understand non-linear trends. You have a coffee cup and it has one drop of water in it. Every second the amount of water doubles and it will be filled to the brim at 1 min. At what time will the cup be half full?

Ans: 59s. And at 50s, it will be 1/1024th full.

The implication here is that people won't really understand how quickly a commodity can devalue until it basically happens. Also, useful to show people how adding CO2 works. People don't seem to get the implications today, because the cup looks 1/1024th full.
 

lenaitch

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There's a long term issue that Trudeau hasn't yet come to terms with. And that the Conservatives are all but clueless about. Ditto the average Canadian that I talk to.

The devaluing of oil.

The Europeans are moving to ban all new sales of gas and diesel vehicles by 2040. With several cities moving to ban them by 2030. With some rather lofty target goals for the sales of electric vehicles over there by 2030. Half of all sales will be EVs by then. Smaller countries like Israel or Iceland where range isn't as much of an issue are going for full bans by 2030. And larger countries like India and China are moving on ban by 2040 to 2050. The news of last weeks IPCC conclusion is driving immediate policy consequences:

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/automoti...-2030-after-dire-un-climate-report/1516845066

Those seem like far out dates until you consider how futures markets work. At the minute you figure out that oil is a useless commodity, futures will start trading lower. The oil sands being an expensive production zone will suffer first. With investment drying up almost overnight. We could start seeing some of this as early as 2023-2025, whenever that "tipping point" is reached. You have mainstream business analysts now looking at this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

Nobody in Canada. Politicians or citizens, seems to understand this. And that's because most people are terrible at understanding non-linear trends. And the implications are just massive for us. We're a country that's piddling in productivity (gdp/hr on par with Italy) with an over-reliance on energy and other resource exports and real estate. What are we going to do if oil exports collapse suddenly?

ps. A simple exercise to see if you understand non-linear trends. You have a coffee cup and it has one drop of water in it. Every second the amount of water doubles and it will be filled to the brim at 1 min. At what time will the cup be half full?

Ans: 59s. And at 50s, it will be 1/1024th full.

The implication here is that people won't really understand how quickly a commodity can devalue until it basically happens. Also, useful to show people how adding CO2 works. People don't seem to get the implications today, because the cup looks 1/1024th full.
Interesting analysis, KieithZ. I'm one of that citizenry that has not thought about this very much. A question that comes to mind is where will all of the required electrical energy come from? Fossil generation is assumedly out; wind and solar are inconsistent unless massively networked, nuclear is, outside of its high up-front cost, relatively efficient but socially insecure, and hydro has been pretty much maxed out short of huge, new disruptive developments likely in third world countries.
Interesting that place like Iceland are moving towards all-electric vehicles. For a good part of their year, loads such as heaters and defroster will seriously limit their range. Admittedly, they generally don't have far to drive and are sitting on top of untapped geothermal reserves.

One large consumer of fossil fuel is commercial international transportation. Is there some kind of view that there is realistic expectation of electrification of freight trains or ocean-going ships within this the time frame discussed above, or some other power source? Or is it speculated that the global movement of goods will come to an end?
 

kEiThZ

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Interesting analysis, KieithZ. I'm one of that citizenry that has not thought about this very much. A question that comes to mind is where will all of the required electrical energy come from? Fossil generation is assumedly out; wind and solar are inconsistent unless massively networked, nuclear is, outside of its high up-front cost, relatively efficient but socially insecure, and hydro has been pretty much maxed out short of huge, new disruptive developments likely in third world countries.
Interesting that place like Iceland are moving towards all-electric vehicles. For a good part of their year, loads such as heaters and defroster will seriously limit their range. Admittedly, they generally don't have far to drive and are sitting on top of untapped geothermal reserves.

One large consumer of fossil fuel is commercial international transportation. Is there some kind of view that there is realistic expectation of electrification of freight trains or ocean-going ships within this the time frame discussed above, or some other power source? Or is it speculated that the global movement of goods will come to an end?
Uggh. Posts like these drive me up the wall. It’s strawmanning. Nowhere did I say that all oil and gas use would cease immediately. Nowhere did I say global shipping would stop.

What will happen is that commodities traders will see that EV sales are ramping up exponentially (adoption curve for all new tech) and start devaluing oil. That’s painful for say the Saudis who spend a few dollars per barrel to get it out of the ground. It’s fatal for Canada where we spend tens of dollars to get it out of the ground.

Oil and gas will still be consumed. But instead of that consumption going up every year, it’ll start going down annually with that trend starting as early as 2030. And all it takes is a firmly established change in the change in demand for traders to get the message. That we don’t see this or are planning for it, is extremely foolish on our part. Even the Saudis are trying to sell off parts of Aramco to get enough to transition before oil devalues. And they have cheaper and higher quality oil than us.

Ps. As for where all the electricity will come from? That’s a whole other discussion that utilities are having, on how to adapt. An EV draws about the same power as an air conditioner. So it’s like adapting for the onset of AC. On the flip side, refineries use up a lot of electricity. Freeing that up would actually partially compensate substantially for increased residential power demand (caused by EVs).
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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There's a long term issue that Trudeau hasn't yet come to terms with. And that the Conservatives are all but clueless about. Ditto the average Canadian that I talk to.
Even if Trudeau and his brain trust believes it - he can't say it, much less act like it will be fact without Alberta and Saskatchewan going through the roof (not to mention a chunk of the Maritimes for which this is the best thing coming since Cod.)

50% of current oil use is intended for road transportation, roughly two-thirds if you include all forms of transportation - do the math accordingly.

AoD
 

Northern Light

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Uggh. Posts like these drive me up the wall. It’s strawmanning. Nowhere did I say that all oil and gas use would cease immediately. Nowhere did I say global shipping would stop.

What will happen is that commodities traders will see that EV sales are ramping up exponentially (adoption curve for all new tech) and start devaluing oil. That’s painful for say the Saudis who spend a few dollars per barrel to get it out of the ground. It’s fatal for Canada where we spend tens of dollars to get it out of the ground.

Oil and gas will still be consumed. But instead of that consumption going up every year, it’ll start going down annually with that trend starting as early as 2030. And all it takes is a firmly established change in the change in demand for traders to get the message. That we don’t see this or are planning for it, is extremely foolish on our part. Even the Saudis are trying to sell off parts of Aramco to get enough to transition before oil devalues. And they have cheaper and higher quality oil than us.

Ps. As for where all the electricity will come from? That’s a whole other discussion that utilities are having, on how to adapt. An EV draws about the same power as an air conditioner. So it’s like adapting for the onset of AC. On the flip side, refineries use up a lot of electricity. Freeing that up would actually partially compensate substantially for increased residential power demand (caused by EVs).
I think your posts on this are excellent @kEiThZ to be fair to @lenaitch though, I don't think he was strawmanning so much as asking a sincere question, though that last line was a tad o'er the top.
 

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