High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

[MisterF]

If there are HSR lines that are actually profitable (truly profitable) then that must mean there are other impediments that prevent the private sector from just doing it on their own (like rules and regulations)....capitalism, like nature, abhors a vacuum....if there was a profitable service not being offered and there were no rules and regs preventing it then someone would have built it.

In fact, with western (including Canadian) governments always looking for new sources of revenue.....if HSR was truly profitable then I can't see government not jumping at the chance. I suspect they are not truly profitable.

Governments are jumping at the chance, HSR is being built all over the world. As for Canada, it doesn't take much browsing on UT to figure out that governments don't always make decisions that make sense.

Can I conclude that you're equally skeptical of intercity freeways? They don't make money and private companies aren't exactly lining up to build them. As CDL alluded to, private companies can't expropriate land. That alone kills any hope of them building HSR (or highways) on their own. Further, it's more than just who's willing to build the infrastructure. It's the policies that support it. HSR networks aren't built in isolation, they come with regional rail feeder networks, changes in how land is used, etc. Private companies can't control any of that.

HSR should not be built until we have a proper regional rail network, frequent VIA service for inter-city trips. Before building luxury and expensive HSR we need a train culture such that it is seamless to travel by train. Right now that only applies to the big cities. In the smaller towns, the train stations are not front and centre and do not have good transit connections. Look at any European city and their train station is the focal point of the town with a large square and becomes a large gathering place. Our train stations are usually near highways or surrounded by parking lots.

It's similar to the subway vs. LRT discussion. There won't be much demand in HSR without the train culture first. For example, if we can build dedicated track for VIA, we could get the Toronto-Montreal trip down to 3.5 hrs without HSR. That would be a lot cheaper and allow us to serve a lot more people.

The regional rail network is happening, it's what Metrolinx is working towards and a big part of the Liberal platform in the last election. That momentum has been building for the last decade and HSR is a continuation of that. It's really not out of nowhere if you look at the way regional transportation planning has been heading.

Delaying HSR wouldn't do anything for regional rail. The same trends that result in HSR make better regional rail more likely as well, and the same trends that would cancel HSR would also cut GO and VIA service. Saying X shouldn't happen before Y only hurts the chances of Y ever happening at all.

 

[mdrejhon]

That momentum has been building for the last decade and HSR is a continuation of that.

Regardless of the color of the feds, HSR construction probably will begin by the 2030s.
Could happen sooner, if all levels of government align.

The GO RER to Kitchener as an eventual goal (not for first phase, but eventually), that would electricify about halfway to London with grade-separated dedicated ROW. Bona-fide, this is suitable for a "HSR lite" -- Even a simple express electrified GOTrain could feel like HSR-lite, could go 200kph+ on some segments of the existing ROW (with improved high speed trackage), with room to speedup to true HSR 300kph+ with a straighter ROW once the cost is justified for an express 300kph+ train. Although I prefer HSR to Ottawa (my hometown), I clearly see the London HSR route is more obvious "starter HSR" than the Ottawa HSR route because of the GO RER initatives.

 

[crs1026]

To be blunt, your findings are wrong. Even the most profitable HSR lines (or highways or airports for that matter) don't tend to get built until the government takes the lead.

The ugly cycle that no one can break is that infrastructure is viewed as high risk, so investors expect government to mitigate the risk, and government proves too eager to assist. Union Pearson being one example, electricity supply in Ontario being another.

So, even if there were investors out there today who saw HSR in Canada as a good place to put their money, they would drag their heels until they thought they had mined government for all available support.

The business case may be positive on paper, but no one is *desperate* (yet) to get it going, and it's too far down the political agenda to incent politicians to get behind it.

- Paul

 

[TOareaFan]

Can I conclude that you're equally skeptical of intercity freeways? They don't make money and private companies aren't exactly lining up to build them.

Not sure why you are asking that question but since you did I will answer....no I don't think intercity freeways make money (although some likely could)....but, then again, no one here was saying they were so it was not the discussion at hand.

 

[diminutive]

Indeed, high-speed rail could potentially connect Toronto Pearson, Toronto Union Station, Ottawa Macdonald–Cartier, Ottawa Tremblay, Montréal–Pierre Elliott Trudeau, and Montreal Gare Centrale. It has ridiculous potential to make money.

Why does everyone seem to think that connecting the airports would be some kind of boon to HSR?

The global evidence is quite unambiguous that HSR's entire travel time advantage is in providing more convenient access large urban cores. The fastest and cheapest way to travel between Pearson and Trudeau will almost always be flying.

Nobody will take a train from downtown Ottawa or Montreal to fly out of Pearson, so there's not much of a market there.

Maybe there would be some market for an intermediary city like Kingston to Pearson (or Ottawa) but that's hardly a huge market, especially if the trains just run direct between Ottawa and Toronto (which is more or less the point of HSR).

Governments are jumping at the chance, HSR is being built all over the world. As for Canada, it doesn't take much browsing on UT to figure out that governments don't always make decisions that make sense.

There have been decades of HSR studies in Canada and the absolute most generous results they tend to produce are EXTREMELY narrow profits on the Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto route, guaranteed losses on anything beyond that and huge project risk.

You don't have to be some kind of political guru to understand why politicians here don't want to touch HSR with a 10 foot pole. Nobody's ever going to sign up for a project which costs tens of billions of dollars, will almost definitely be heavily delayed and over budget, will require massive expropriations, kill any non-TO/OTT/MTL Via service and almost exclusively benefit wealthy business passengers. On the flip side, it's completely obvious why nearly half of all global HSR construction is going in China, where that type of stuff is just political gold.

Most Canadians don't even have convenient access to frequent bus service. Many people in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal don't even have quality transit access. Blowing billions of dollars on a route so that some business people can avoid taking the train in from Pearson is totally nonsensical.

 

[crs1026]

Why does everyone seem to think that connecting the airports would be some kind of boon to HSR?

Well, because when I fly to Paris, the ability to get on a TGV at the airport and end up in Avignon (half the country away) without a transfer downtown is why I fly into Paris at all. BTW the trains through TGV-CDG originate in one region, and terminate in another. The airport is simply a mid-run stop, allowing people to cross France without going into, or changing trains in, central Paris. So that routing is good for ground travellers too. A direct Pearson-Kingston route across the top of Toronto is not unthinkable (but it would be expensive to build).

You may be correct that it would not compete directly with Dorval-Pearson, but many people take shuttle vans to Pearson from places in Southwestern Ontario to access flights to Western Canada. Or the Maritimes. Or the Caribbean. That business could be captured.

- Paul

 

[diminutive]

Well, because when I fly to Paris, the ability to get on a TGV at the airport and end up in Avignon (half the country away) without a transfer downtown is why I fly into Paris at all.

You're extrapolating from a trip you take on a (presumably) semi-regular basis. France isn't representative, it's overly centralized around Paris. I don't even think Nice or Marseille have year-round trans-Atlantic flights, which is ridiculous given the population of South Eastern France.

I don't see why we should be encouraging air travellers to switch modes hundreds of kms away from their final destination... That's just not efficient at all.

BTW the trains through TGV-CDG originate in one region, and terminate in another. The airport is simply a mid-run stop, allowing people to cross France without going into, or changing trains in, central Paris. So that routing is good for ground travellers too. A direct Pearson-Kingston route across the top of Toronto is not unthinkable (but it would be expensive to build).

A direct Pearson-Kingston route is completely unthinkable! Pearson apparently has 49 departures to Kingston per week, mostly on Beechcrafts. Even assuming 100% capacity that's less than 1000 passengers/week, or less than a single HSR train. It's also assuming that a notional Toronto-Ottawa HSR wouldn't be better off just skipping Kingston in the first place and shaving 50km off the route (significant cost savings).

You may be correct that it would not compete directly with Dorval-Pearson, but many people take shuttle vans to Pearson from places in Southwestern Ontario to access flights to Western Canada. Or the Maritimes. Or the Caribbean. That business could be captured.

You said yourself, shuttle vans. These aren't massive pools of customers, and it's not even logical that HSR would capture those travellers. Shuttle vans can operate more frequently to more dispersed locations than a HSR which, by definition, has extremely limited stops.

 

[ssiguy2]

I've never been a fan of HSR projects unless the ridership is already there.

Politicians love it as it makes for great ribbon cutting, industry loves it for the contracts, and Greenies love it because it makes them feel all warm and fussy but they rarely make sense.

When you look at value for the dollar, HSR is a definite loser. Did you spend $10 billion to serve 20,000 tourists and business people each day or to serve millions of average people in their commute everyday by veering those funds over to mass/rapid transit expansion?

HSR helps relatively few, makes less than zero impact on GHG emissions, is very expensive, and diverts massive amounts of infrastructure funding from far more worthwhile projects. HSR is too much money for too little return and seems to be getting headway for no other reason than "everyone else has one" and not for valid transportation needs. It's transportation designed by politicians for politicians much like the Toronto UPX...........a huge waste of money geared strictly for business and tourists and but won't make a damn bit of difference to the millions of Ontarians who are paying for it.

I am all for improving current corridor with better track, trains, signal and ROW upgrades etc which can make a big difference in speed and reliability of current corridors as well as getting rid of the milk runs and concentrate solely on the larger cities. That would be money far better spent. Yes, spend money on some bypasses [ie Brantford}, get rid of all stops between Hamilton and London, faster trains, etc etc but a whole new route to London from Toronto {whether by Kit or Ham} is not only not needed but really won't be any faster than if they started to run the current service better.

 

[mdrejhon]

I've never been a fan of HSR projects unless the ridership is already there.

I'd say that would occur during ~2030s -- when we already have upgraded/electrified right of way (ROW) on half of the HSR route already (Toronto-Kitchener) then the cost increment of a "HSR lite" may not be big anymore. Then might even justify the full 350kph true HSR ROW shortly afterwards, especially if trains become full very early.

In that case, a simple electricified single-decker GO RER trainset may already qualify as a "HSR Lite" (>200kph in straight express runs) -- so it is possible a series of "speed-ups" occurs over the next two to three decades. When trains are faster at reasonable prices during peak than driving empty freeways at 4am, that will bring in a lot more ridership, even from places like Kitchener.

(As a point of reference, I once commuted from Riverdale area Toronto (east of downtown) all the way to Waterloo (near Waterloo University), just before the morning peak, and was able to make the drive in 1h15min door to door, assuming I left early morning and beat the rushhour slowdown.

However, if fast "HSR lite" GO RER express trains can make the Kitchener-Toronto trip faster than a "best case drive" such as approximately 45mins, that makes KW another bedroom community for Toronto, and dramatically increases ridership, fills the trains, and warrants electricification all the way to London (as well as gradual track upgrades for faster trains to raise the speed limit gradually).

The process of all the gradual upgrades, I see could happen by the decade of 2030s, if they've fast-track the GO RER plans over the next ten years (including SmartTrack, a GO RER in disguise).

Merits of UP Express aside, I hope the ROW improvements that UP Express "promised" (e.g. electricification) helps the whole GO RER / SmartTrack initiatives long-term, if they keep engineering smart over the next ten years to cost-effectively combine ROW improvements over the segments of corridor-of-most-multiservice-potential like Kitchener line and Lakeshore lines (SmartTrack+UPX+RER+HSR).

 

[ehlow]

Riverdale to UWaterloo in 1 hour 15 min? Wow. I can only imagine that in completely ideal highway conditions (4 in the morning or something).

If 45 min HSR happened + Waterloo LRT, I wonder if a sizeable amount of students would live in Toronto and commute to school in KW.

 

[mdrejhon]

Riverdale to UWaterloo in 1 hour 15 min? Wow. I can only imagine that in completely ideal highway conditions (4 in the morning or something).

Not UW but an office park adjacent to UW. Also, it is season dependant, and it was before they narrowed the Gardiner for the renovations. In the late fall I could achieve 1h15min at roughly ~5:45am departure, which meant I sometimes slowed down briefly to 60-80kph for brief sections, but was full speed the rest of the way. When weather warmed up, it prolonged to 1h30min but I rarely went longer than 1h30min unless there was an accident blockage or extremely bad weather. I consider 1h15min the benchmark.

If 45 min HSR happened + Waterloo LRT, I wonder if a sizeable amount of students would live in Toronto and commute to school in KW.

45min might be achievable using express trains on the existing routing (if fully owned by Metrolinx), without needing a dedicated ROW and without needing a true HSR trainset. Time will tell. Definitely track capacity is an issue, but Metrolinx is buying up the Kitchener ROW and will be expanding capacity dramatically over the years. Not sure if that will require four-trackng on the whole run, or only during many sections (stations, etc).

 

[TOareaFan]

As interesting as being able to get to Waterloo in 1 hour and 15 minutes to 1 hour and 30 minutes at 5:45 a.m. is.....it really is not particularly relevant for building transit when most people are looking to make the journey.

Despite advancements in flex hours, etc., the majority of people still work a day that is +/- 9 - 5 (it may be 8- 4 or 10 - 6 but in that range) and the work day is still pretty much geared to that.

So, during those times of days....1 hour and 15 minutes to 1 hour and 30 minutes is, funnily enough, the length of time it takes me to drive from my house in Brampton (5 minutes from the 410) to my office at King and University. I typically aim to start my day at 9:30 and am typically leaving the office between 7 and 7:30.

1 hour and 15 minutes is what I call "a good day"....anything north of 1:30 (and it happens with increasing frequency) is what I call a "bad day".

Pretty sure that is a shorter trip than to Waterloo.

Today, for example, was 1 hour and 20.

 

[nfitz]

Riverdale to UWaterloo in 1 hour 15 min? Wow. I can only imagine that in completely ideal highway conditions (4 in the morning or something).

Not that bad. I do a similar drive frequently (monthly more recently. Twice a week 5 years ago). Until the Gardiner got really messed up recently, you could achieve this leaving at 7 AM, most days, particularly after they finished the Highway 8 widening in Kitchener. Now you have to leave at 6:45 or so. At 4 AM, you can do it in about 60 minutes. Yes, I drive at about 120 to 125. But so do most cars at that time.

 

[reaperexpress]

45min might be achievable using express trains on the existing routing (if fully owned by Metrolinx), without needing a dedicated ROW and without needing a true HSR trainset. Time will tell. Definitely track capacity is an issue, but Metrolinx is buying up the Kitchener ROW and will be expanding capacity dramatically over the years. Not sure if that will require four-trackng on the whole run, or only during many sections (stations, etc).

My guess is that west of Georgetown two or three tracks should pretty much do it for us. How many trains do we realistically expect to run? Off-peak I'd figure around 3 tph (1 VIA, 2 GO Regional) given that the bulk of service would likely be the 4 tph local to Mount Pleasant. During peak periods, I'd guess maybe up to 8 tph (4 GO Express, 2 GO Regional and 2 VIA), which is within the capacity of two tracks as long as the services have roughly the same average speed.

In my ideal world, they would build a new 200-250 km/h HSR line from Georgetown to Guelph serving the 2 GO Regional and up to 2 VIA trains per hour, with peak-hour peak-direction express trains running on the existing single-track line to serve Acton.

 

[lead82]

Governments are jumping at the chance, HSR is being built all over the world. As for Canada, it doesn't take much browsing on UT to figure out that governments don't always make decisions that make sense.

Can I conclude that you're equally skeptical of intercity freeways? They don't make money and private companies aren't exactly lining up to build them. As CDL alluded to, private companies can't expropriate land. That alone kills any hope of them building HSR (or highways) on their own. Further, it's more than just who's willing to build the infrastructure. It's the policies that support it.


HSR networks aren't built in isolation, they come with regional rail feeder networks, changes in how land is used, etc. Private companies can't control any of that.


The regional rail network is happening, it's what Metrolinx is working towards and a big part of the Liberal platform in the last election. That momentum has been building for the last decade and HSR is a continuation of that. It's really not out of nowhere if you look at the way regional transportation planning has been heading.

Delaying HSR wouldn't do anything for regional rail. The same trends that result in HSR make better regional rail more likely as well, and the same trends that would cancel HSR would also cut GO and VIA service. Saying X shouldn't happen before Y only hurts the chances of Y ever happening at all.

GO RER has not been built yet and until it is it makes no sense to siphon money into fancy HSR. We need the money to build the base network to connect as many towns and cities by frequent rail service. Then HSR makes sense to build. Until VIA has jam packed trains running hourly between Toronto and Ottawa/Montreal, there is no market for HSR that would justify its cost. This is why no government will build it. I will be surprised if the Liberals actually implement the RER for GO. Until the trains are running I would not hold your breath. The Liberals have sadly been underwhelming on transit. Big on accnouncements but implementation keeps getting delayed and trimmed down. Transit City went from 4 lines funded to 1 line under construction and the other 3 are on hold or money being wasted for a Scarborough Subway. Now we have Smart Track to siphon money away.