High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

[SaugeenJunction]

Could be interesting- would there be overlap between GO and VIA service?

Or could GO act as the local, slower system (serving Guelph, Waterloo, etc.) while VIA serves as the express (direct to Waterloo and beyond)? Lots of opportunities there, which probably makes the lack of progress all the more painful.

When I was in Switzerland this summer, I was impressed at how so many trains coupled/uncoupled at various stations, allowing for multiple “train trips” in one train schedule slot.

Imagine a VIA HFR train leaving Windsor or London on dedicated tracks, arriving at Kitchener, and coupling to the back of a Union-bound Express GO train. Two different trains, two different services, one time slot.

I understand this requires master timing, something that Switzerland has perfected, and that this scenario relies on no delays from CN for VIA (thus the dedicated tracks). One can only dream...

 

[WislaHD]

I'm just wondering, is anyone supportive of HSR in Ontario actually thought it through?

There are not any cities with sizeable population in the region besides Toronto. Where are the users of HSR supposed to come from?

Lets take the London-Toronto route.

London - 521,756
Kitchener - 527,765
Guelph - 159,988
Toronto - 6,346,088

Total Population: 7,555,597
Total Distance: 342 km

However, Toronto CMA makes up a whopping 84% of the corridor's population.


Now, let's take a look at the newest high speed rail route in the world, in Morocco.

(From Wikipedia)

There are stations at Tangiers, Kenitra, Rabat and Casablanca. Let's take a look at their populations.

Tangiers: 947,952
Kenitra: 431,282
Rabat: 2,120,192
Casablanca: 3,359,818

Total Population: 6,859,244
Total Distance: 307km

So on the surface, it is a very comparable route. Tangiers to Casablance as a corridor is a similar population and distance to London to Toronto.

HOWEVER, the largest city in the corridor, Casablanca, only makes up 49% of the corridor's population. Compared to Toronto's 84%.

The population is distributed much more throughout the corridor, thus making it viable for High Speed Rail, unlike in the London-Toronto corridor.

This is just one of many obvious reasons IMO why HSR is not viable in southern Ontario.

 

[Urban Sky]

This is just one of many obvious reasons IMO why HSR is not viable in southern Ontario.

At least not now and as the first HSR segment of a national network. Just a reminder of how Germany's InterCity service looked like before they entered the HSR age:

In terms of frequencies and travel times, HSR did not make that much of a difference:

Maybe the most significant change was maybe that Frankfurt-Mannheim-Stuttgart-Munich became the fastest (and therefore: preferred) route between Frankfurt and Munich:

Ironically, since the opening of the HSR link between Ingolstadt and Nürnberg in 2006, the fastest route between Frankfurt and Munich is via Würzburg (not Stuttgart) again...

 

[Urban Sky]

I'm not sure what you are seeing in that post, but, the images here all look like:

View attachment 153801

Thank you for letting me know. No idea what went wrong, but should be fixed now...

 

[dowlingm]

When I was in Switzerland this summer, I was impressed at how so many trains coupled/uncoupled at various stations, allowing for multiple “train trips” in one train schedule slot.

Imagine a VIA HFR train leaving Windsor or London on dedicated tracks, arriving at Kitchener, and coupling to the back of a Union-bound Express GO train. Two different trains, two different services, one time slot.

I understand this requires master timing, something that Switzerland has perfected, and that this scenario relies on no delays from CN for VIA (thus the dedicated tracks). One can only dream...

A few observations:
1. VIA already operates J-trains (joined services which divide). So not completely alien to VIA operations. I think but don't know for sure that the Jonquiere/Senneterre trains join at Hervey Junction as well as separate.
2. Did any of the trains you saw in SWI consist of two trains *operated by different companies*? Because I would think the legal issues with such an operation as described below would be insuperable unless, at a minimum, VIA was operating the GO express on contract to Metrolinx.
3. VIA OTP arriving in Kitchener would have to be superior to avoid driving customers off the route BUT if they padded the schedule enough to do it, the consequent hit to journey time for the arriving consist might in turn be annoying to customers (since southern Ontario travel is not likely to be as leisurely/assume delays inevitable as for northern Quebec service.

 

[dowlingm]

I'm just wondering, is anyone supportive of HSR in Ontario actually thought it through?

There are not any cities with sizeable population in the region besides Toronto. Where are the users of HSR supposed to come from?

Lets take the London-Toronto route.

London - 521,756
Kitchener - 527,765
Guelph - 159,988
Toronto - 6,346,088

Total Population: 7,555,597
Total Distance: 342 km

However, Toronto CMA makes up a whopping 84% of the corridor's population.

I think the assumption on Ontario's part is that HSR would push growth towards London and Kitchener in particular, nudging them towards 1 million.

However, that requires a co-ordinated development effort AND a receptiveness on behalf of the local population to have that growth, especially if the cohort arriving is seen as "disproportionately" (i.e. to any extent at all) composed of immigrants/ESL/social assistance/retirees, rather than late 20s graduates who will fill clean/tech jobs the province also provides, who will work for significantly less than what they earned in Toronto, work at times which least stress the transit system and its municipal subsidy, and who will have babies at a rate comfortable for the local schools to accommodate without a rash of portables, and for daycares to cope with without perceived parking carnage.

 

[Urban Sky]

A few observations:
1. VIA already operates J-trains (joined services which divide). So not completely alien to VIA operations. I think but don't know for sure that the Jonquiere/Senneterre trains join at Hervey Junction as well as separate.
2. Did any of the trains you saw in SWI consist of two trains *operated by different companies*? Because I would think the legal issues with such an operation as described below would be insuperable unless, at a minimum, VIA was operating the GO express on contract to Metrolinx.
3. VIA OTP arriving in Kitchener would have to be superior to avoid driving customers off the route BUT if they padded the schedule enough to do it, the consequent hit to journey time for the arriving consist might in turn be annoying to customers (since southern Ontario travel is not likely to be as leisurely/assume delays inevitable as for northern Quebec service.

1. VIA currently operates trains 50/60 and 52/62 (between Toronto and the yard just before Brockville) and trains 601/603, 600/604 and 602/606 (between Montreal and Hervey and v.v.) as jayed trains and has done the same between Montreal and Matapedia before the Chaleur was suspended.
2. Having trains involved from two companies is indeed problematic as one company's delays affect the customers of the other. Note that VIA does not offer (and as far as I'm aware has not offered any since the 80s) any J-trains in the Corridor (i.e. where customers are highly delay-sensitive) where two trains join (rather than split) en-route. However, if you built the missing link and any level of government allowed its public railroad to take over the currently CN-owned portion of the Guelph subdivision and potentially the Northern track into London rail station, then you would have a corridor where dispatching is entirely in the hands of passenger operators...
3. Exactly, and I don't understand the wisdom of having "a VIA HFR train leaving Windsor or London on dedicated tracks, arriving at Kitchener, and coupling to the back of a Union-bound Express GO train", as the latter's journey would be completely redundant by the HFR train (If you just want higher capacity, you would probably add/cut the additional trainset in London rather than Kitchener, provided you bother extending the express trains west of London at all).

Nevertheless, I'm currently writing my Master Thesis about the influence of passenger rail timetable strategies on rail capacity and I will gladly post some timetable drafts (my case study is the Kitchener Corridor with a branch line from Guelph to Cambridge for exactly the kind of J-trains we are discussing here) if anyone is interested...

 

[WislaHD]

I think the assumption on Ontario's part is that HSR would push growth towards London and Kitchener in particular, nudging them towards 1 million.

So, my question is why exactly do we believe that HSR would be the catalyst to push growth in London and Kitchener to over 1 million?

In Kitchener's case, I also have to ask, what would HSR achieve for the city that integration with GO-RER won't accomplish?

 

[steveintoronto]

In Kitchener's case, I also have to ask, what would HSR achieve for the city that integration with GO-RER won't accomplish?

There's a case to made to buttress your point with the present GO service to K/W off-peak, and that's the GO #30 bus, an express from Bramalea to Kitchener's main bus station, and then up the road to the GO train station. It also makes an on-road stop near the Sport's Centre.

The bus runs end-to-end in a shorter time than the GO train does during peak time one-way operation (In in the morning, out in the evening) and yet at times the bus is almost empty I'm told (I've only used it just after peak, and it's been half full all three times)...which leads one to question: "How great is the demand for AD2W commuter service, let alone HSR along that route?

In all fairness to the train's journey time for the points mentioned (Bramalea to K/W) it does make multiple station stops, and I and others would much rather ride the train than a bus, but I seriously question the busy model being touted.

Make no mistake, I fully believe AD2W train service is necessary on the K/W run, but unless shorter trainsets are used outside of peak, losses are going to be significant. Even peak loading from Brampton west is less than half capacity. Once RER begins to the Brampton area (Oh Lordy, Lordy, Lordy, if ever at this rate) AD2W GO diesel DD could use shorter trains that terminate at the beginning/end of RER outside of peak, and run-through as express to Union during peak.

I just can't see the business case being demonstrated for anything more than that at this time, save for HFR running through to London.

 

[WislaHD]

There's a case to made to buttress your point with the present GO service to K/W off-peak, and that's the GO #30 bus, an express from Bramalea to Kitchener's main bus station, and then up the road to the GO train station. It also makes an on-road stop near the Sport's Centre.

The bus runs end-to-end in a shorter time than the GO train does during peak time one-way operation (In in the morning, out in the evening) and yet at times the bus is almost empty I'm told (I've only used it just after peak, and it's been half full all three times)...which leads one to question: "How great is the demand for AD2W commuter service, let alone HSR along that route?

In all fairness to the train's journey time for the points mentioned (Bramalea to K/W) it does make multiple station stops, and I and others would much rather ride the train than a bus, but I seriously question the busy model being touted.

Make no mistake, I fully believe AD2W train service is necessary on the K/W run, but unless shorter trainsets are used outside of peak, losses are going to be significant. Even peak loading from Brampton west is less than half capacity. Once RER begins to the Brampton area (Oh Lordy, Lordy, Lordy, if ever at this rate) AD2W GO diesel DD could use shorter trains that terminate at the beginning/end of RER outside of peak, and run-through as express to Union during peak.

I just can't see the business case being demonstrated for anything more than that at this time, save for HFR running through to London.

I'm firmly in the "build it and they will come" camp for AD2W commuter service between Kitchener and Toronto.

But that is because the fundamentals works for it. People would be willing to pay the GO fare for reliable, frequent ADW2 GO-RER service, and we know this because people pay that currently along the Lakeshore lines.

HSR on the other hand is marginal speed improvements over GO-RER for Kitchener, would be less frequent of a service, would only be able to serve one single destination (Union), and here is the kicker, will have a fare cost waaay higher than GO.

 

[steveintoronto]

But that is because the fundamentals works for it.

Absolutely. But even it didn't totally 'pay its way' it's a required bond of region building to underwrite development and productivity. It has to happen.

You don't need cherry topped cake to survive, but you do need basic carbohydrates. The present rail corridor to K/W must be improved to HFR+ standard, for both VIA and GO. That travel time can be reduced at least half an hour K/W to Union. That the bus does it faster between Bramalea and Kitchener including a circuitous route immediately cues alarm over wasted time and potential.

 

[TOareaFan]

I'm firmly in the "build it and they will come" camp for AD2W commuter service between Kitchener and Toronto.

But that is because the fundamentals works for it. People would be willing to pay the GO fare for reliable, frequent ADW2 GO-RER service, and we know this because people pay that currently along the Lakeshore lines.

HSR on the other hand is marginal speed improvements over GO-RER for Kitchener, would be less frequent of a service, would only be able to serve one single destination (Union), and here is the kicker, will have a fare cost waaay higher than GO.

And, unlike HSR, GO ReR will actually serve the (by then) 750k people living in Brampton

 

[kEiThZ]

I'm just wondering, is anyone supportive of HSR in Ontario actually thought it through?

Yes.

And the goal here is economic. Not necessarily to improve transport. Though it would provide an alternative to highway expansion.

If we're to support KWC and London, at some point they will have to be plugged into the GTA's economy with travel times that are reasonable. The alternative is watching growth concentrate in the GTA, congestion and traffic get worse, while watching other communities fall behind economically and the GTA end up funding more and more of Southwestern Ontario.

Transport infrastructure isn't just meant to move passengers and goods. Sometimes, its built to facilitate growth, connectivity, etc.

And heck, it'll make a great corridor for smooth AD2W service.

 

[kEiThZ]

So, my question is why exactly do we believe that HSR would be the catalyst to push growth in London and Kitchener to over 1 million?

In Kitchener's case, I also have to ask, what would HSR achieve for the city that integration with GO-RER won't accomplish?

Would make KWC-Union highly commutable. Making it possible to integrate tech in KWC and Toronto and finance, legal and marketing services in Toronto much more tightly. Would make Pearson accessible to KWC, within 30 minutes, eliminating a major deficit for KWC.

 

[WislaHD]

Yes.

And the goal here is economic. Not necessarily to improve transport. Though it would provide an alternative to highway expansion.

If we're to support KWC and London, at some point they will have to be plugged into the GTA's economy with travel times that are reasonable. The alternative is watching growth concentrate in the GTA, congestion and traffic get worse, while watching other communities fall behind economically and the GTA end up funding more and more of Southwestern Ontario.

Transport infrastructure isn't just meant to move passengers and goods. Sometimes, its built to facilitate growth, connectivity, etc.

So is the prestige of having a white elephant HSR line in southern Ontario that would cost well over a dozen billion dollars (a very low estimate) to construct, and would run massive deficits in light of low ridership, going to lead to substantial economic growth in the region?

I feel like all those goals you speak of could be accomplished by directing the money that HSR would cost towards expanding GO-RER, improving urban transit, and building subways in Toronto.

And also, if those objectives are our stated goals, then in Kitchener, HSR will be duplicating the efforts of the planned GO-RER upgrades that we have already sunk billions of dollars on.

As for London, I am still not sure why so much attention has been afforded to London in regards to these lofty goals of promoting population growth there, when we have Hamilton right next door, which unlike London, is commuting distance to Toronto, is connected to our urban region and economy, and has excellent urban fabric downtown to potentially support the addition of a million people (should we really desire to). HSR would do nothing for Hamilton.