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High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

I have lost the thread on what service pattern is being promised to Kitchener. I know that the Premier mentioned 15-minute GO service, but whether that's all day or peak I'm not sure. And now, if the new Minister says that HSR is on, and sharing the same tracks, is that over and above or is that a change to the 15-minute service?

It's the same confusion as ST/RER.... how many trains total? And how to keep express trains from overtaking stopping trains?

As a sanity check, here's how the promised 48 minute HSR plays out in timing.

Screen Shot 2018-03-08 at 9.46.11 AM.png


- Paul
 

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Not directly related to HSR but...
CN is booting Genesee & Wyoming’s Goderich-Exeter Railway off the lines it leases in November. That includes its Kitchener-London portion of the CN-owned Guelph Subdivision. Neither CN or Genesee Wyoming will comment on this publicly, but it’s in the works.
Source is the last comment here.
 
Two rumours I've heard on this subject:
1) VIA wants to buy the Kitchener-London stretch of track from CN
2) CN wants to run double stacks along this corridor to reduce congestion on their southern line

1) Sounds quite plausible. CN's desire to remove G+W from the equation is pretty much a grapevine consensus at this point. However, CN will want to retain the freight traffic from the line, where VIA might not care if it dies on the vine. It makes sense that CN would want to regain control so that they can drive a deal with VIA that preserves the freight opportunity, but G+W might still be a partner since VIA won't want to actually run the freight side of the operation.
2) Does not sound plausible. The only double stack trains through London today are 148/149, which run Chicago-Halifax via Brantford. They seldom encounter congestion - in fact, everything is kept out of their way. CN has said they plan to add a second pair of intermodal trains when the South Halton terminal opens, but there is plenty of capacity for those also.

What may be more plausible is CN routing more trains Toronto-Chicago-Winnipeg instead of over the Northern Ontario line. There is definitely congestion up there. It happens ad-hoc already.

Would that impact VIA? Possibly, at least to the extent that CN might be reluctant to add more London-Brantford-Toronto trains to the current schedule. But overall there is oodles of capacity available on that line.

- Paul
 
^ Re 2), well, that could make HSR challenging...

I'm not so sure. With GO owning Kitchener-Silver, CN has little ability to force its traffic onto this route. (Unless, as I fear, the sale to GO had some conditions..... I'm hearing hints that CN's retained rights over the lines previously sold to ML may be even stronger than what we have observed so far).

But, if CN does intend to take the western end back from GEXR, and is making noises about running that line for freight first, it might explain why GO is so interested in a new HSR line which bypasses Stratford and St Mary's.

If CN really is an impediment, a Tory government in Ontario might not have the same motivation to play nice with Ottawa and sweep all these things under the rug. Ottawa might still not help out, but at least the Tories would have the fortitude to call out CN and Ottawa over all this. Especially if the big guy from Etobicoke gets in.

- Paul
 
(Unless, as I fear, the sale to GO had some conditions..... I'm hearing hints that CN's retained rights over the lines previously sold to ML may be even stronger than what we have observed so far).
I was just wondering on exactly that point, thus my digging on the VIA CTC installation, their basis for doing so, and what protection they have on their investment in doing so, even with ML. I know two years ago they were claiming they'd like to add two more runs, but the slots weren't available. Thus the Google hit back to the past in this string, prior post.

And then ML added two more inbound from Kitchener.

There appears to be some missing factors to make this all add up, and a 'rider' by CN on that line might just be it. Or a good part of it.
 
How time flies.
And how some things never change. There's some good points made in those posts. And I'm not so sure that 'serious planning' has progressed that far. The same massive impediments then appear to remain now, save for GEXR' lease coming to an end. VIA and ML were both waiting for that...*ostensibly*...to release slots. I'm skeptical, because this isn't adding up any differently if CN do have a rider on GEXR's priority on the line.

There's a lot of variables possible with what we know...and don't know.
 
The fact they're now expediting the EA for the Kitchener leg of the high speed train -- indicates they seriously want to combine many of the GO RER + HSR upgrades for at least the Freight Bypass requirement parts (and probably Brampton upgrades).

Since HSR has to go over this shared section, it makes total sense to expedite all the assessments necessary to make the right decisions for the shared corridor's long term future.

GO RER electrification and HSR electrification in the shared sections (e.g. Kitchener-Guelph, and Mt Pleasant to Union) will likely use exactly the same cat above, and exactly the same track below.

(cats, being the catenary kind, not the meow kind)

Get the corridor upgrades done right, done once, all at the same time, and by the end of the 2020s. While Metrolinx talks up hydrail, that's probably only destined for feeder lines (Bolton, Niagara, etc).

Hell, we might actually even have a real high speed train by my predicted time (2030s), too!
 
I keep wondering why this project wasn't broken into 3 phases:

Phase 1: Toronto-Kitchener
Phase 2: Kitchener-London
Phase 3: London-Windsor

They could roll Phase 1 into GO RER for the Kitchener Line.

Because it's not about actually building. It's about vote-buying.
 

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