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Hamilton LRT (Metrolinx/City of Hamilton, Revived)

afransen

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innsertnamehere

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$5B for a 13km LRT? That's insanity. For $400M per km we should be getting Vancouver SkyTrain-type service. If you can't build at-grade non dedicated ROW LRT for ~$100M/km we probably shouldn't bother and instead built real rapid transit.

Except it’s $3 billion and only like $1.5 of that is actual construction costs. A good chunk is design and land purchasing.
 

NoahB

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$5B for a 13km LRT? That's insanity. For $400M per km we should be getting Vancouver SkyTrain-type service. If you can't build at-grade non dedicated ROW LRT for ~$100M/km we probably shouldn't bother and instead built real rapid transit.


The 5B is mostly debunked. The true estimated cost is about 3.7B. All these numbers include 30 years or so of maintenance and private sector financing costs. The estimated capital (construction) cost is closer to 2.1B at this moment if I remember correctly. This is still unreasonably high. But for some reason, Toronto construction prices are extremely high. This is a far cry to how much it cost to build the Canada Line, which is a true grade seperated subway/metro line.
 

mdrejhon

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$5B for a 13km LRT? That's insanity. For $400M per km we should be getting Vancouver SkyTrain-type service. If you can't build at-grade non dedicated ROW LRT for ~$100M/km we probably shouldn't bother and instead built real rapid transit.

Worth reposting my earlier post for some numbers demystifying:

___________

The team (in large part assisted by Ryan McGreal) have been doing a great job at hamiltonlightrail.ca and tweeting from @HamOntLightTrail

...leaked documents show cost overrun is only 2%

A highly recommended follow.



With the leaked documents on the internally-already-approved ~$3.7 billion (versus the actual non-inflated cost 30-year estimates closer to approximately $3.8 billion, not inflated 30-year $5.5 billion)
New leaked cost estimates show Hamilton LRT is only 2% over budget.

Hamilton LRT $1B is capital/construction only

The Liberal announced $1B is only the capital & construction cost only (proof on ontario.ca). If one reads that link to 2015 Liberal announcement, it only said capital.

Hamilton LRT $3.7B includes operating & maintenance for 30-years
While the $3.65B (already approved by Ontario Treasury before Ford cancelled) includes 30-year operating & maintenance. And it was leaked that Ontario Teasury Board had already internally approved the entire 30-year cost (approximately $3.7 billion).

Hurontario LRT $4.6B including O&M for 30-year -- Similar Situation, Approved Without Scandal
Hurontario LRT got announced at $1.6B capital (scaled back to $1.4B after shortening to exclude Brampton Downtown leg, see Page 123 of Ontario Budget 2018), the already approved 30-year cost of Hurontario is $4.6 billion for 30-year total (Proof on ontario.ca Website !!! and UrbanToronto wrote about this too). But this was not scandalized because $1.4B is capital ("DB" in DBFOM only), while $4.6B includes operating and maintenance (DBFOM for 30-years).

The sheningians that Ford did to blackmail the Hamilton LRT in public cost perception, is pretty despicable. Even a lot of his Conservative Allies are mad at Ford for the LRT cancellation -- especially LIUNA and others. Mayor Fred -- as much as some of us are unhappy with him on other matters -- I'm glad he released no-longer-confidential Hamilton LRT documents. Even though a couple of bidders pulled out, I bet some intentional demoralizing of the bidders was done by behind-the-scene sheninigians (that's what I hear in the grapevine).

One of the LRT bidders (including LIUNA) is doing their own audit on the inflated numbers; LIUNA (formerly Ford ally) disagrees with Ford's inflated $5.5B number.

As a taxpayer, you should be mad they are playing Monopoly Money on your hard-earned dollars -- by cheating at mathematics to blackmail the taxpaying public in thinking the Hamilton LRT is massively cost-overrun -- distorting the variable in costing the "DB"(construction) versus "DBFOM"(30-year).

DBFOM total is only 2% over budget.

The bigger scandal is that Ford was unfair with Hurontario-versus-Hamilton.

References:
  1. Link to ontario.ca (2015): Hurontario LRT $1.6B capital announcement ("DB" in DBFOM)
  2. Link to ontario.ca (2019): Hurontario LRT $4.6B approved 30-year cost including operations/maint (full DBFOM)
    -- These announcements are several years apart. Hurontario was also waiting for O&M cost confirmation!
    .
  3. Link to ontario.ca (2015): Hamilton LRT $1B capital announcement ("DB" in DBFOM)
  4. Leaked actual #s (2019): Hamilton LRT $3.7B approved 30-year cost including operations/maint (full DBFOM)
  5. False inflated #s: Hamilton LRT $5.5B fake numbers is NOWHERE on ontario.ca.
    -- It was only "released" on twitter & news media
    -- The formerly-confidential docs is now released by Mayor Fred onto hamilton.ca
    -- Plausible legal-court deniability, my bleep.
    .
  6. Ontario Treasury Approved Cost $3.66B versus Metrolinx Cost Estimate $3.75B
    "already-approved total 30-year budget of $3.66 billion"
    "30-year cost for Hamilton's LRT was $3.75 billion, or just $87 million over its approved budget"
    Only 2% cost overrun on DBFOM total !!! !!! !!!
 

TheTigerMaster

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At press conference moments ago, Premier Ford pledges "one way or the other we’re going to get the (Hamilton) LRT built." His government cancelled the project a year ago. Ford blames Liberal Leader and former transpo minister Steven Del Duca for being "dishonest" about costs.

Source:
 

TheTigerMaster

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Northern Light

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mdrejhon

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Please allow me to demonstrate the classic flip flop.

<throws sandals in the air>

....When the LRT is predictably resurrected in a few years, we’ll be wondering why we’ve dithered for 15 years over it. Not as bad as some Toronto transit lines though, unless you include the 1980s SkyTrain style proposal that was first offered to Hamilton before Vancouver, where Hamilton turned it down.
 

Jonny5

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Uh oh.


Lysyk’s report confirmed that “the Ministry of Transportation was aware as early as December 2016 that the estimated costs for the project were significantly higher than its public commitment of $1 billion,” and the fact the total cost would be greater wasn’t publicly communicated until 2019.

As previously reported by the Star, the report confirmed that in March 2018 the Ontario Liberal government quietly approved a budget of about $3.7 billion for the Hamilton LRT, a figure that included $1 billion for construction plus the other project requirements. The auditor determined that figure was likely low.

Lysyk acknowledged Monday she couldn’t say whether by publicly citing the $1 billion construction cost, the previous government had treated the price tag for the Hamilton LRT differently than other projects.

For instance, the $5.3 billion estimate commonly cited under both the current and former government for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT also only refers to construction costs. (The total bill for Eglinton will come to more than $12 billion, according to a the province’s approved budget).
 
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