those are some killer commute times. the 5:19am departure from Niagara will arrive at Union at 7:50am.. that is a 2.5 hour travel time.
I feel like a sizable chunk of commuters are either heading to St Catherines, or Hamilton, Burlington, or Oakville, similar to Kitchener Line Commuters originating at Kitchener GO. Speaking of which...
Really, GO should implement local/express service on the Kitchener Line, and run all trains to Kitchener express between Union and Bramalea, and run locals to Bramalea and/or Mount Pleasant. Though that probably won't happen until the Bramalea Station work is finally complete, and GO may want that fourth track in the Weston Sub first. GO also needs to fix Georgetown Station so its through trains don't have to crawl in and out of the yard there - it takes less time for VIA to make its way through.
I'd rather see a higher speed regional rail service (not necessary Glen Murray's HSR fantasy) that can make the trip in 90 minutes, using a fleet suited for medium distance travel, including wifi and comfortable seating.
While I see a huge value in running express trains on the Kitchener line, not all trains should be express because there are still people who need to get off at Weston (Airport), Bloor (people work near there), etc. When 2WAD is running (8 trains morning peak), I actually would suggest running 1-2 trains local to Georgetown, and then express stopping at Brampton, Weston/Pearson Airport, and Union instead of stopping at the Brampton stations, or even one train that just runs express from Georgetown to Union (Assuming there are passing tracks)
Warning: long rambling. Skip to the end if you don't want to read not important stuff
Kitchener line services could theoretically could see trip times decrease to an hour with electrification (at least part way), express services, and track modifications Express services. The current express service takes something like 1 hr and 48 minutes, and it would be 1hr and 40 minutes if not for unnecessary wait times at a few stations (Obviously they're there for operational purposes, but still). Replacing the Schantz Station bridge can decrease that trip time by 5 minutes (currently, the train has to slow down to like 10 mph when crossing that thing), improvements through Guelph can shave off up to 10 minutes (and these are underway), removing the unnecessary wait times at Georgetown would save another five, and just like that, without any drastic improvements, we're already at 1hr and 28 minutes. With electrification through Brampton, another 20% of the 45 minutes traveling through there can be shaved off (9 minutes), track improvements between Kitchener and Guelph can shave off another 5 minutes, and running express services further (no stop to Georgetown with the exception of Brampton) would save another 15 minutes. This leaves us at around 59 minutes of travel time. Of course these estimations aren't scientific, and the actual ridership of the trains can be put into question, but 59 minutes for a train from Kitchener to Toronto is extremely competitive, especially when compared to driving. I wouldn't be surprised if Kitchener saw ridership increase by 1000 passengers per day (particularly at the future Breslau station) and Guelph by 500, and to use this one train alone. Given existing numbers (Kitchener express trains usually see between 200-400 passengers, with an additional 200 passengers getting on in Guelph and 50 in Acton), this one train could see in excess of 2000 passengers not including those getting on in Brampton. Given that Brampton users would be enticed by nonstop service, I can safely see this working with full trains.
And all these improvements can occur without the need for 110-125mph class 6+ track.
