GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

Guelph is very de-centralized. At least in Kitchener, the GO station (at least after it's ultimately moved to King) connect with the LRT that does quickly connect to many employment nodes and both universities.

That is true. Over the long term, it makes sense to build a multi-modal transit terminal at the intersection of King/Victoria and replace the old Charles street terminal, allowing for LRT, local GRT busses, and GO transit to integrate their services, sort of like a mini Union station.

KW is also very decentralized, but it's in an exciting state of transition and downtown-uptown is increasingly becoming a place where companies (even high-tech!) want to locate their offices, even if the suburbs still rule. It could very well become the third downtown of the Greater Golden Horseshoe region (I don't see it surpassing Downtown Hamilton anytime soon, even if there is more growth/gentrification).

 

[TOareaFan]

Criticism #2 - The GO train will take 1hr 48min to run from Kitchener to Union Station. Since it clearly won't be competitive with automotive travel, there is little incentive for those 3000 commuters to switch from car to rail.

Now, if the rail was electrified for higher speeds and an express route operated, skipping Georgetown and points all the way to Union Station, we'd be talking about a system that could lure commuters out of their cars. As for now, my fear is that the current proposal could risk becoming a white elephant, when it shouldn't if it was planned right.

Just wondering, will the 50%, or so, Cambrige (just using your estimate) commuters double back for this service or does this electrified express service have to rely on the other 1,500 users to cover the cost......forget that question cause it does not matter......no one can/should expect electrified express service for a total market of 1,500 - 3,000 potential users.

 

[unimaginative2]

Obviously it's not just a market of 1,500-3,000. First of all, decent service would create new trips. Secondly, the point that he's making is that trips between KW and Toronto aren't limited to AM/PM peak commuters. There are many thousands more people who travel off-peak, whether they're students or leisure travellers.

 

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

Just wondering, will the 50%, or so, Cambrige (just using your estimate) commuters double back for this service or does this electrified express service have to rely on the other 1,500 users to cover the cost......forget that question cause it does not matter......no one can/should expect electrified express service for a total market of 1,500 - 3,000 potential users.

Well, if it ran at times other than weekday rush hours, it would likely have a lot more than 1500-3000 potential users, which was another point I made.

There is also the possibility that the larger number of people working in Halton/Peel could transfer from GO to local transit to get to their jobs. But because of the disconnect between land use and transit in those regions, I think the GO train would mostly appeal to downtown commuters.

 

[TOareaFan]

Obviously it's not just a market of 1,500-3,000. First of all, decent service would create new trips. Secondly, the point that he's making is that trips between KW and Toronto aren't limited to AM/PM peak commuters. There are many thousands more people who travel off-peak, whether they're students or leisure travellers.

A statement that you can make about many places much further inside Toronto's commuter shed that only have peak commuter service. KW is (and should be) way down the list for places to get such off-peak service.

As for my post, I was responding directly to his point about needing electrified, express, service to attract those 3,000 (or some portion of them) out of their cars....if that is the expense we need to go to to achieve that...let them drive!

 

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

Obviously it's not just a market of 1,500-3,000. First of all, decent service would create new trips. Secondly, the point that he's making is that trips between KW and Toronto aren't limited to AM/PM peak commuters. There are many thousands more people who travel off-peak, whether they're students or leisure travellers.

Just speaking as a long time resident of Waterloo Region, I can tell you that some of the major destinations in the GTA for us are Pearson Airport and (seasonally) Wonderland. This would, however, need to be accomodated by an improved GO bus network, not train.

And you're definitely right about the decent service creating new trips. Not only would you be able to capture most of the existing commuters, but more Torontonians would likely consider KW-Guelph as feasible places to live in if there was reliable GO service to Union station that took only 45min - 1hr15min.

High speed rail would likely turn KW-Guelph into a full out bedroom community, and make commuting look feasible from London. Whether that's a desirable thing is another matter, but at least they would be taking the train instead of the 401.

 

[EnviroTO]

Unfortunately until the GEXR and VIA dispute on access is resolved the travel times will not improve. Due to the lack of a signalling system to direct trains through the track between Kitchener and Georgetown, lack of a second mainline, level crossings, and some track allignments that slow allowable speed these trains are going to be stuck with a travel time that isn't very competitive. VIA would like to address some of the biggest obstacles to speed but is in arbitration with GEXR which operates the line to come to an agreement that investment will not be made. With VIA's planned upgrades between Georgetown and London, the Georgetown South improvements between the airport and Union, and the new track over the Credit River they should be able to get the trip time down to an hour.

GO isn't even implementing the improvements they had budgeted in the EA for Opening Day ($125M) on this project so obviously this is a bit of a rush job to stay on schedule but not delivering the improvements envisioned to make the route a reasonable success.

 

[EnviroTO]

Wow. I was just re-reading the press release. They are only spending $18M on this initial setup. Compared to the EA "Day One" plan (which was a fraction of the future ultimate plan) that is less than 1/5th the amount required to bring the line up to snuff. This service is obviously going to be asphalt pads, bus shelters, and a siding to plug GO trains in at night. They are really going cheap on this launch.

 

[rbt]

Wow. I was just re-reading the press release. They are only spending $18M on this initial setup. Compared to the EA "Day One" plan (which was a fraction of the future ultimate plan) that is less than 1/5th the amount required to bring the line up to snuff. This service is obviously going to be asphalt pads, bus shelters, and a siding to plug GO trains in at night. They are really going cheap on this launch.

For the expected ridership, that is probably for the best. I kinda see this as being a trial service which if it works well will be rapidly improved (after the Georgetown corridor is finished).

 

[EnviroTO]

The problem with that is that a trial of a service that takes twice as long as driving isn't representative of the demand for the real service.

 

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

^ Precisely.

Not to mention that they don't even run the trains at the most important times (i.e. shuttling the students between the cities on weekends). Honestly, the difference in traffic on a Friday is noticeable on the highways, let alone just the Greyhound.

What methodologies does GO use to determine its demand? It seems to me like they're out of touch with the needs of Kitchener - Toronto travel.

 

[nfitz]

What methodologies does GO use to determine its demand? It seems to me like they're out of touch with the needs of Kitchener - Toronto travel.

The method is that there is an election coming, and the KW ridings are swing ridings.

In East Toronto where they've been promising increased off-peak GO service since the mid-1970s that never get's delivered, they are safe Liberal ridings - even though the demand and ridership for that would be higher.

 

[Urban_Enthusiast86]

The method is that there is an election coming, and the KW ridings are swing ridings.

In East Toronto where they've been promising increased off-peak GO service since the mid-1970s that never get's delivered, they are safe Liberal ridings - even though the demand and ridership for that would be higher.

That's a pretty terrible methodology, but I'd believe it still. Welcome to the world of politics.

Although, if the province was trying that hard to win us over, they likely wouldn't have cheaped out of their previous commitments to LRT. With the 235 million dollar shortfall, that's become a major local election wedge issue, with lots of misinformation being spun and a lot of the so-called "libertarian" (because roads apparently cost nothing) arguments you hear south of the border coming out of the woodwork. Fortunately, most of the regional council members who were in support of LRT were re-elected, so there is hope.

 

[Orion VIII]

The main thing is that this has finally been announced to the public and that commitment will hold the provincial government to funding GO Transit to do it. I know for a fact that station construction and improvements for the extension were in the budget for 2012/13, with a layover facility in Baden. While the target date for the start of operation is the end of 2011, the minimal cost indicates that the ball will finally be rolling in the direction of full completion. In the grand scheme of things, a station building and "nice" platform are not really necessary in order to start up a service that GO knows will be popular. A ticket agent in a trailer or even a bus driver selling tickets out of a bus can and probably will suffice at the beginning of service, allowing the service to begin earlier while full construction is carried out.

I would no longer worry about VIA-GEXR arbitration. Once the West Toronto grade separation is done and there is capacity for more trains on the Weston Sub, money is sure to be thrown like crazy at double tracking the Guelph Sub and installing CTC. Look at the double and triple tracking of the Oakville and Halton Subs: Many sections of additional track added in those projects were deemed by veteran CN RTCs as being unnecessary for the increased service, however they were still built because the money was there for them, funding that would be lost if said sections were not completed.

 

[TOareaFan]

] In the grand scheme of things, a station building and "nice" platform are not really necessary in order to start up a service that GO knows will be popular. A ticket agent in a trailer or even a bus driver selling tickets out of a bus can and probably will suffice at the beginning of service, allowing the service to begin earlier while full construction is carried out.

Do they really know that it will be popular or is this a test to see if there are riders? An earlier poster suggested there were 3,000 daily commuters to the 416 from this region.....another suggested that this trial service was two trains a day that would make no stops east of Guelph (ie. direct to Union from Guelph)...assuming 12 car sets (GO's standard) that means that even if they capture 100% of those potential customers.....the trains would not be close to full! While there are people standing all the way to work on their existing routes.

I think this is a test before spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a service for which there may not be a need/market.