GO Transit Electrification | Metrolinx

[mdrejhon]

On the theoretical concept of REM construction intentionally creating more future tunnel work (ALTO) under Mont Royal.

(SNC Lavalin being both REM and ALTO makes a lot more sense, egged on by CDPQ)

D'oh, maybe pulled a potential "masterclass in masterplanning" fast one on us, didn't they? Maybe they weren't that smart, but the smart ones think several chess moves ahead, and pretend they didn't. We're none for the wiser, but at least to a good upside -- on this one -- hopefully. So I'll give them that brownie "benefit of doubt" point.

Aaaaaand.... I'd actually hope the above was covertly one of the reasons.

It means they were smart, and it means they're smart enough to make ALTO happen. It's a calculated engineered Montreal buy-in.

It also, for the sake of on-topicness (via long winded chaos theory path), ALTO could potentially eventually force GO Electrification happen due to catenary commonalty agreements in a couple decades, if the big M hasn't paved electrification ahead of them.

With all the supertankers worth of plausible deniability, it's long non-scandal water under the bridge - REM's (practically) done, most of Montreal loves REM, ALTO needs tunnels, VIA needs solution. Buy in! It'd be a non-scandal that ends well instead of badly: Canada could be finally getting a high speed train, and Toronto might end up getting a catenary domino for GO Electrification as a backup plan to the big M dragging feet beforehand.

Through my lifetime to my fifties today, I have participated in election campaigns of household member, and my dad diplomat working in Canada Embassy¹ has taught me a lot too. (We Ontarians are breathing clean air, swimming in Blue Flag status Erie waters, and fishing in Lake Erie, because of my dad's involvement in the Acid Rain Accord). Fun thing, as a paperboy, I personally delivered the Ottawa Citizen Newspaper announcing the subsequent domino falls (Clean Air Act). Overalls, all this adjacent exposure, I've witnessed in my lifetime, enough to see these things happen in backrooms. There's smart ones and the dumb ones.

This notion is plausibly a 50-50 wash, one would hope in this specific case it is the smart upside, not dumb downside. What if there were information one or two of the stakeholders (<wit>see dee you qoo ... yoo hoo</wit>) already knew. Given they pulled off a REM, I'm praying.

I sense "pretend projects" (SmartTrack yoo hoo) and I know "stack the card deck" projects when I see them.

ALTO is a "stack the card deck" project, favouring the House. Yes, I rah-rah'd the big M a decade ago. M's "armlengthing" did the job of cancel-proofing a lot of projects and getting the **** out of the Transit Dark Ages (1995-2015, book ended by Eglinton Subway cancellation and the opening of UP Pearson). But, yes, I'm ultimately disappionted at the big M nowadays, despite winning the Commuter Train Champion Trophy of North America. But with the M inefficiencies, ALTO is the trojan horse.

These kinds of masterplanning chess moves are how politicians win: Something gets done with buy-in.

¹Citation: My dad George Rejhon (alive, 92 today) as diplomat, Canada Embassy


I've watched the game of chess long enough. Watching the game of good politics masterplanning requires learning grandmaster chess (like learning American Football rules or the nuances of hockey).

Magnus Carlsen (the chess champ, y'know) sometimes plays dumb or bored teenager, then suddenly does a masterclass of a chess move.

Never, never, never underestimate those politicians/stakeholders who play dumb. Likewise, never underestimate the smartest Internet commentators. Some are genuinely dumb but not all of them, they think several chess moves ahead.

(sigh)

I wish politics wasn't a game, but your opponent forces it to be a game (mishmash of poker and chess and more).

Masterplanning Chess Olympics

I pay my Gen-X (voting) ticket to become a spectator, and often pay attention metaphorically near front row seats in a grand politics arena. Totally preferring to be on the sidelines as a spectator who pay the (voting) admission ticket, I still root for the winning chess moves that gives the population the "good stuff" like ALTO, it will be addicting by 2040-2050s.

The jaded spectator seated next to me, symbolically attending the Politics Masterplanning Olympics, is just merely looking down to their smartphone's Almighty Algorithm echo chambers.

Me, I'm watching the field and know the masterplanning chess rules. We need more masterplanning chess grandmasters like R.C. Harris. His winning chess moves were our vaunted 1918 Prince Edward Viaduct that Bloor-Danforth Subway runs over -- and also of our beautiful Waterworks Mahal. We have North America's finest tap water a century later.

I prefer ALTO addition than Almighty Algorithm addiction. Railroad induced demand. I know enough that the stacked ALTO deck has now become almost polymarket bettable now. I already see what's happening a few chess moves ahead. But don't yet bet 2029 shovels yet in the metaphorical ALTO betting category.

 

[ssiguy2]

Solid state. Current lithium ion batteries have good enough performance characteristics. Solid state will be nice when it is mature, but it's not there yet.

I disagree on both counts.

First, current batteries do not have very good performance. Yes, you get the zero emissions, quieter and smoother rides just like catenary but their acceleration rates are much slower. Their actual performance of BEMU are only slightly better than current DMU and not comparable to true rapid transit systems like GO could become. Also, battery trains are less energy efficient than catenary because they have to haul around all the extra weight of the batteries obviously requiring more power. BEMU will, at least in my lifetime, never have the performance of catenary due to the weight issue but solid state batteries reduce that performance and energy efficiency gap by a quantum level.

Second, the technology for solid state batteries is ALREADY there. The race to get solid state onto the market is directly due to the limitations of lithium ion. Lithium is a mature and proven technology but that's the problem with them.........they are about as good as they are going to get due to their natural limitations. They are much like ICE cars, the amount of advancement in ICE technology has been very limited in the last 30 years compared with technological advances in general. There will, of course, continue to be incremental improvements but they simply can't do a whole lot better with the technology.

This is why they have been able to compared solid state and lithium........they are already proven technologies and, by every metric, solid state are superior and in some ways exponentially so.. It is not a hypotheitical technology but one that is already in production. The problem has been the price and lack of scale but that is changing at truly lightening speed. So much so that, as the article stated, price parity is expected in just 4 years compared to solid state being 8X more expensive today. China has new gigafactory plant opening later this year EXCLUSIVELY for solid state batteries and is viable because the supply chain is coming online and as I stated the new VW plant in St.Thomas will begin solid state mass production in 2029. You don't start mass production of an untested and unproven technology.

 

[mdrejhon]

BEMU will, at least in my lifetime, never have the performance of catenary due to the weight issue but solid state batteries reduce that performance and energy efficiency gap by a quantum level.

Instead of BEMU, I envision hybrid solutions. Existing hybrid diesel-electric locomotives was invented in 1925, more than a century ago. Some minor tweaks to the design of a modern locomotives allow attachment of a battery, even from a different car.

A much smaller safe (lithium iron phosphate) battery running on an existing diesel-electric locomotive can assist in getting across catenary free sections, like switching tracks near Aldershot, or past triangular junctions, while avoiding stringing catenary over CP/CN lines. Rail-rail overpasses takes decade to come sometimes, this could be "sooner" solutions. Catenary can hover above only Metrolinx track parallel to freight tracks, solving various mudane Kitchener and Niagara corridor issues of much smaller gaps that might more easily unlock electrification. It naturally would also allows layover-yard track switching opportunities without emissions too.

Assuming minor upgrades to a diesel-electric locomotive workflow to enable plug-in external electric power modes (battery wagons, battery modules, small backup batteries built into the consists, or any external electric power fed into the loco).

Basically an "Upgraded Next Generation Head End Power" system. 12 small lithium iron UPS batteries in the whole train can still slowly push a 2030s-era minor-upgraded diesel-electric locomotive over short distances (railyards, catenary gaps in freight corridors). Doesn't need many kilometers. Backup power for the coach times 12 = enough temporary loco tow power to taxi gaps.

Minor incremental progression that could happen first, fairly cheaply, and rather quickly, as a stopgap. It's a fine parallel battlefront for GO Electrification with "plain UPS convenience" and "minor mods to existing diesel electric tech" commonalties. Especially in the time windows I now envision electrification to happen.

 

[ssiguy2]

^^^^ I agree, a hybrid option is also doable. I mentioned these a couple months ago and they are known as EDMU trains.........electric diesel multiple units.

EDMUs are very much like a standard hybrid car. They are ICE vehicles at their core but have batteries that can run part of the way and when the fuel is needed, they run on that while also recharging the batteries. This means the batteries never run out of power and do not need recharging infrastructure. This is a big plus for ML as they excel at doing nothing.

They can basically be used in 2 different ways.........distance or speed. Distance would be like your Aldershot example, where they run on batteries for as long as they can and then switch to diesel. The problem with this is that when your battery runs dry, the trains revert back to diesel level performance. You can have the situation where de/acceleration is good at the first few stations and lousy the further you go out. They also result in more emissions and particulate matter near certain stations than others.

Using them by speed is the superior choice. The trains run on diesel and recharge the batteries while doing do but, for example, when the train speed drops below 70km/hr {ie when it's coming into or exiting a station} it is 100% battery. This means the performance is at electric power rates and is the same at each station and the emissions are further reduced as most emissions are caused when de/accelerating just like cars and planes. It means the passengers while disembarking/boarding the trains at the station also don't take in their fumes.

As I stated earlier this would be good for ML because it doesn't require them to do anything except get someone else to implement the changes on the train which is actually relatively easy and affordable. and can pay for itself thru reduced diesel consumption. The issue is that this would still be very much a short-term solution. These are not emissions free vehicles and if Toronto wants to meet it's 2050 climate goals, EDMU will not do it. Also, many of GO's current diesel locos are coming to the end of it's lifecycle and adding batteries will not change that. Added to this, these are still ICE vehicles so you do not enjoy the reduced maintenance costs of fully electric vehicles.

They are a proven technology and used around the world but, if ML decides to go ahead with them {after the obligatory 5 year Royal Commission} they must recognize that this is not a long-term solution.

 

[Allandale25]

Another rendering showing the OCS Infrastructure. Posted in the Ontario Line thread.

Ontario Line 3 | Metrolinx

I have no predictions. But I'd hope that by the end of 2030, there won't be big visible construction and cranes everywhere. Last I asked about Osgoode, the space is supposed to be handed back to the Law Society in 2028 to restore the garden. If the tunnel goes through Osgoode in 2027, that...

urbantoronto.ca

 

[just east of the creek]

Re the above conversations re electrical, battery, ICE locomotives. So
possibly the ML ‘strategy’ of prolonging the decision making ( which is really a historical standard Canadian political practice) as long as possible, with all the attendant studies, consultations, commissions, policy reviews….works in their (our?) favour? Allowing further time for these technologies to continue to develop, or in the case of solid state, enter the market place as a working proven solution.

 

[just east of the creek]

Personally I am waiting on a Case or MF to adapt an SSB power unit in an affordable (???) mid size farm tractor. Maybe about the same time as they appear in locomotives.

Here is a good article from a farming perspective of non ICE power units.

Why Tractors Make a Surprisingly Good Fit for Next-Gen Batteries

IDTechEx Research Article: Electrification is tough. It has taken around 15 years to convince car owners that battery power is a viable alternative to their fossil fuel comfort blanket. In the construction, agriculture, and mining industries, electrification is an even steeper uphill battle. In...

www.idtechex.com

 

[ssiguy2]

Another advantage of EDMU is that there is no "learning curve" .

When you all of a sudden drive a EV, it does require some getting use to such as breaking difference, totally new controls etc and I'm sure for electric trains it's more complex. It would probably take a small course/training for current loco drivers to master it. Driving a hybrid car requires absolutely no getting and ditto for a train because they are still just ICE vehicles. Most people would never know the whether they are driving a regular ICE or hybrid one except for the faster acceleration. This means current conductors could just continue on as normal. This is a big deal for ML because even a one month course for them would throw the organization into nervous breakdown and would require years of extra study.

Again, whether battery, catenary, or EDMU the issue is that it still requires ML to actually make a decision on how to meet their GO service goals and the problem is that they still have absolutely no idea what those goals are. How can one get to their destination when they have no idea where that destination is?