GO Transit Electrification | Metrolinx

[dowlingm]

The notion that ALTO is what delivers electrification in the USRC is similar to VIA post-HFR, and I hope it's entirely wrong, because there is every chance that ALTO won't go anywhere, but until it demonstrates either explicit progress or explicit failure, governments and agencies can sit and wait to see if "private sector free money" will produce capacity and capability investment that the public sector could have been delivering in the first half of the 2020s.

 

[Undead]

I think we just need to acknowledge that Ford & Co just don't care about GO Electrification, to them the current diesel service gets the job done. I would also pose a possible conspiracy here, and that is there is a conflict between his car-centric nature and his developer buddies... let me explain. The Ontario Line at its core is simply a tool for land development (as seen by the closure of the Science Centre and the redevelopment of Ontario Place and the Exhibition Grounds). While on the surface there is nothing wrong with this as many subway lines around the world and even parts of our own streetcar network were built to spur land development, it needs to be understood that the OL is not some brilliant idea of transit planning but instead a way to make Doug's developer friends some money. It just so happens that in this instance the needs of the city align with the money to be made in the land development sphere.

So how does this correlate to GO RER? Well GO happens to own a lot of very valuable land, its parking lots and these lots are ripe for redevelopment. However Doug is easily the most car-centric Premier we have had since at least the late 1920's and he will not harm suburban car owners who drive to their local GO Station to ride the train into Downtown. What this means in practise is those massive parking lots are locked up and not going anywhere so Doug's developer buddies have no need to "convince" Doug to move this project along. I guarentee you if Doug wasn't so stuck in the 1950's car mentality and opened those parking lots up to redevelopment this project would be flying along like the OL is. Doug Ford is a crook plain and simple but he also knows who his voting base is so those parking lots are off-limits which means the backroom deals will need to come from other places (see Ontario Place, the Science Centre, Exhibition, and now the MTCC).

There's been a few TOC/TOD/whatever proposed in GO parking lots.

 

[dowlingm]

https://www.thetrillium.ca/news/municipalities-transit-and-infrastructure/metrolinx-blocked-key-tasks-then-fired-partners-for-missing-deadlines-report-12133777

it's an interesting piece but written from the contractor's point of view. I know there is a predisposition on this board and likely elsewhere to think Metrolinx can do no right, and thus anyone who sues them or otherwise criticises them is right. One wonders if DB had given any thought at all to how previous MX P3s had worked out before signing up - in particular about the need to have government relations ready to go that the first sign of trouble.

 

[mdrejhon]

The notion that ALTO is what delivers electrification in the USRC is similar to VIA post-HFR, and I hope it's entirely wrong, because there is every chance that ALTO won't go anywhere, but until it demonstrates either explicit progress or explicit failure, governments and agencies can sit and wait to see if "private sector free money" will produce capacity and capability investment that the public sector could have been delivering in the first half of the 2020s.

It is a fair early catenary canary warning to a cautionary tale; but we shall not pre-emptively jinx the notion. REM showed us. I'm still jealous of Montreal.

 

[BrenWilson]

it's an interesting piece but written from the contractor's point of view. I know there is a predisposition on this board and likely elsewhere to think Metrolinx can do no right, and thus anyone who sues them or otherwise criticises them is right. One wonders if DB had given any thought at all to how previous MX P3s had worked out before signing up - in particular about the need to have government relations ready to go that the first sign of trouble.

I'd be wary of just going by DB's reports. Mx is certainly capable of the types of delay and indecision that DB claim but I've seen a lot of hilarious claims come out of constructors on Mx projects, it's in their best interest to blame Mx so they can make claims later.

 

[dowlingm]

Where is the rest of the media on this? The Trillium is doing excellent journalism on Toronto transit.

Andy Takagi (not going to @ him even though he is on here) has been doing great work lately.

 

[dowlingm]

It is a fair early canary warning to a cautionary tale; but we shall not pre-emptively jinx the notion. REM showed us. I'm still jealous of Montreal.

I mean REM showed us but not in the way I think you mean - promises by private operators to provide upgraded infrastructure which they say at time of assumption will be shared with public operators will not necessarily be followed through on. (VIA being shut out of Mont Royal tunnel)

 

[ssiguy2]

JSF-1..........................I very much appreciate your insights into my question on the previous page but it still means quite odd to me.

I agree Ford never met a freeway he didn't like, is as crooked as a dog's hind leg, and will do anything for his developer buddies but again you would think that would make electrification even more important to him. The value of the parking lands would increase exponentially if they went from just commuter lots to true rapid transit stations that GO has the ability to become. Also, increased GO service will disproportionately help 905 commuters the most which is where Ford has most of his support. It would be an easy political win.

Added to this catenary/battery trains are much cheaper to run without the huge diesel costs which are going nowhere but up. The savings there would be vastly more than just paying extra drivers. This would also result in catenary/battery trains actually paying for themselves over the mid to long term. ML is also going to have to start buying new locos soon anyway as they reach the end of their life cycle and buying new diesel trains will be a political lose.

Buying electric trains would also be a win outside the GTAH. Ford is probably the most Toronto-centric Premier the province has had post-war. He is a real political animal and his support, despite what Liberal Torontonians like to espouse, is in the 905 which is why Toronto gets a disproportionate amount of gov't spending. A large scale purchase of electric trains would lead to large contracts for TB/Kingston if Alstom or entice Siemens to build a new plant. If battery that would also be beneficial to the new battery plants in Windsor & St.Thomas. It would also be a boon to Hamilton steel workers. The billion bucks he just dropped for the WLRT would build an entire fleet of new electric trains and pay for the catenary/recharging infrastructure.

 

[cplchanb]

I don't think this type of extreme rhetoric is going to help your cause.

And yet they all seem content with screwing an entire generation of riders with their bait and switch tactics. This missed opportunity has set us back over 10 years, which is essentially a generation.

 

[ssiguy2]

The real game changer for battery trains is the introduction of solid state batteries. www.ufinebattery.com did a great article comparing the difference between them and the standard lithium ion ones used today but in language that doesn't require an engineering degree. Solid state are superior by every metric. Compared to lithium, they are 9X safer, 2.3X more energy intensive, recharge 3X faster, last 1.7X longer, and weigh 30% less while being smaller. They, unlike lithium, can handle any extreme temperature condition.

Battery and catenary trains are exactly the same and completely interchangeable offering much smoother, quieter, emissions-free travel while not having the diesel fuel expense. There is however, one very clear advantage catenary has over battery and that is acceleration. Battery trains often don't have near the acceleration and usually have top-speed of the same train about 20% less. They are somewhat faster than diesel but not markedly so. This has nothing to do with the engines or train design and everything to do with the monstrous dead weight of carrying around the batteries.

Solid state batteries offer a quantum leap in negating the BEMU drawback of battery weight and hence performance. By weighing 30% less, requiring less than half the number of batteries for the same amount of power generation and even fewer batteries on top of that because they can recharge so fast, battery weight could easily be reduced by 75 to 85% depending on things like distance and station stopping. Still not catenary speed because it still represents some dead weight but the difference in performance would shrink very significantly and could truly be considered rapid transit. The performance difference will continue to shrink as batteries and regenerative breaking technology continue to advance. Being vastly safer, means usage in tunnels or enclosed areas {ie Union} is not an issue.

The problem is that solid state batteries currently cost about 8X more than lithium due to lack of scale but that is changing at a monumental rate. Already mass production is starting this year and in just 4 years, price parity is expected. Interestingly, the new VW gigafactory in St.Thomas will begin mass solid state battery production by about 2029.

 

[afransen]

I'm really unconvinced that solid state is necessary. Cars are a more demanding application, I think batteries are a smaller % of vehicle mass in trains.

 

[ssiguy2]

^ Curious as to why you think solid state batteries are unnecessary or is it just battery trains in general? I'm not trying to be argumentative nor disrespecting your views but just wondering why you think so.

 

[urbanclient]

^ Curious as to why you think solid state batteries are unnecessary or is it just battery trains in general? I'm not trying to be argumentative nor disrespecting your views but just wondering why you think so.

I'll hop in here, because I'm sensing a pattern. I know you really love battery electric trains.

I don't see them as being a proven tech, since they're not widely used in the countries traditionally seen as leaders in rail. Dual mode or otherwise. I also have no faith that Metrolinx will properly implement battery trains. This is an organization that turned a $23 million, 2 km bike trail into something upwards of $170 million: i.e. more than $85 million per km....and counting!

Many countries build high speed rail at a lower cost per km.

West Toronto Rail Path Extension Nears $200 Million as Start of Construction Delayed Again | UrbanToronto

Mired in its twentieth year of planning, progress on the southern extension of the West Toronto Railpath (WTR) remains stalled. Stretching from Dupont Street in the north to Dundas Street in the south, the former rail line has long been planned to continue southeast to King Street, but so far...

urbantoronto.ca

Everything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Look at what's happened recently with UP Express needing emergency repairs in March, more or less being chronically unsafe since 2015. GO derailment and near-derailment. 2/3 cases were covered up. Don't forget the GO Expansion debacle, delays of up to 2 decades or more.

 

[mdrejhon]

I mean REM showed us but not in the way I think you mean - promises by private operators to provide upgraded infrastructure which they say at time of assumption will be shared with public operators will not necessarily be followed through on. (VIA being shut out of Mont Royal tunnel)

Touché. Ironically, the same members of REM might help VIA into downtown Montreal, undoing that mess.

Given the ALTO train might need a separate tunnel, and that might also have collaborations with the VIA corridor trains too. Maybe that's why they shoo'd VIA out of the REM corridor, cuz they knew ALTO was coming and needed reasons for ALTO to happen.

D'oh, maybe pulled a potential "masterclass in masterplanning" fast one on us, didn't they? Maybe they weren't that smart, but the smart ones think several chess moves ahead, and pretend they didn't. We're none for the wiser, but at least to a good upside -- on this one -- hopefully. So I'll give them that brownie "benefit of doubt" point.

More tunnel lanes that are not car lanes! Induced demand, but railroads.

Full circle, eh.

 

[afransen]

^ Curious as to why you think solid state batteries are unnecessary or is it just battery trains in general? I'm not trying to be argumentative nor disrespecting your views but just wondering why you think so.

Solid state. Current lithium ion batteries have good enough performance characteristics. Solid state will be nice when it is mature, but it's not there yet.