so with yesterday's announcement, what type of movement should we expect on the milton and kitchener lines?
This may be pessimistic, but...
Last provincial election was 2025, so no rush to the polls in Ontario. Mississauga/Halton went solidly blue, so even the promise of moving on Milton GO would be sufficient to power a couple years of empty talk until something tangible begins in time for the next election. Lots of bragging points available before 2029 on the already in progress projects.
The concern with the Kitchener Line is a) the Kitchener terminal is not being rushed, and not much point in increasing service until it is completed and b) all the recent announcements have talked only about an agreement with CN "to acquire land" - a good first step, but not an announcement of a construction contract or launch..
Guelph, Kitchener, Hamilton, London, and Niagara all would be gains for the Tories but not necessarily likely based on other factors or even necessary given the seats already held. Possibly there would be fear of the 905 going red, so perhaps those areas would get promises.
And then there is the problem of cash flow. Bills have not yet arrived for the biggest ticket items on any of Ford's biggest subway/LRT projects. Just how much added money are we expecting while these are consuming capital? Good to see the Waterfront LRT join the funding stream, but that pushes out other things - the right prioritisation decision, IMHO, but an obstacle for announcing more.
There may be a short term need to find work for the construction sector in light of the current slowdown, but if the other stimuli eg development charge deferrals actually work, there will be a rebound in that sector and that will compete with new transit projects. Announcing new transit projects may trigger design work, but shovels in the ground won't happen overnight so not really impacting on currently idle construction resources. Whereas there are many designed and approved building projects deferred but that could launch immediately if the economics are fixed.
So in all I'm admittedly pessimistic that there will be expedited action on any new announcement. Just more promises. I truly hope to be proven wrong, but it is what it is.
PS - the biggest crunch that everyone is focussed on is Highway 401 congestion especially Milton to Kitchener and Dixie to 400. Kitchener and Milton GO would directly impact that, but if I were to predict anything being accelerated, it would be 10-laneing the 401 west of Milton. Sorry to be gloomy but there you have it.
- Paul