GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Another day of empty promises from Metrolinx and the MOT. Nothing about track was mentioned today.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Work may be progressing slower than many of us want, but there's more activity happening at the moment, although they have slowed-down-and-accelerated in spurts:
-- They finished the bridge over Desjardins canal in December 2017 (track yet to activate)
-- Portal was recently installed for new signals near there
-- I actually saw track laid just several weeks ago, the second track at West Harbour
-- The study for the bridge widenings (e.g. Birch)
-- The Centennial Parkway bridge (5 tracks wide) finally opened less than a year ago
-- Groundbreaking of Confederation GO. I see some work starting up there now
-- Groundbreaking of Grimsby GO
-- I visited a Niagara GO PIC a few months ago which illustrated to me some of the complexities that slows them down, but there's no languishing -- just continuous red-tape-cutting and obstacle-breaking with slow forward progress.

Also, Hamilton LRT progressing on schedule at the moment:
-- https://www.thespec.com/news-story/...moving-people-out-of-the-way-of-construction/
The expropriations (apparently quietly and gently done with consideration of resident needs) and relocations are almost complete now. Vacant houses & stores where the buildings are about to be demolished to make way for the upcoming LRT stations in too-narrow sections of the corridor.

There may have be overpromising certain timelines earlier (earlier not knowing the obstacles) but currently my impression is that work remains on schedule under the currently-planned Niagara GO timelines. Yes, we all wish West Harbour GO was utilized more extensively more quickly. That said, the current estimates being given for Hamilton-Niagara seems to have stabilized to fairly accurate looking timelines.

Still taking too long. Laying track under an accelerated schedule takes no more then 100 days. Hamilton should have had all day service already.

 

[Leo_Chan]

Just a video on the progress of the platform extension of Oriole GO Station. Still sad it only goes up to Esther Shiner Blvd and not moved up to Sheppard.

 

[ADRM]

The sad part is that even with all the commitments and plans in the world it all goes up in flames if Doug gets the win. Has he said anything definitive on RER?

He hasn't said anything definitive on anything, and I wouldn't expect him to.

 

[robmausser]

Just a video on the progress of the platform extension of Oriole GO Station. Still sad it only goes up to Esther Shiner Blvd and not moved up to Sheppard.

It makes it close enough to Leslie Subway station though to make an underground tunnel or covered walkway possible.

 

[Leo_Chan]

It makes it close enough to Leslie Subway station though to make an underground tunnel or covered walkway possible.

Or have a walkway from the subway parking to along the rail corridor, then across a pedestrian bridge.

 

[BMO]

The sad part is that even with all the commitments and plans in the world it all goes up in flames if Doug gets the win. Has he said anything definitive on RER?

Why does everyone say this? Has he even said that he would cut funding to Metrolinx or eliminate GO RER? Seems like an easy win for him to keep it considering all the conservative ridings that the GO system touches.

 

[Leo_Chan]

Why does everyone say this? Has he even said that he would cut funding to Metrolinx or eliminate GO RER? Seems like an easy win for him to keep it considering all the conservative ridings that the GO system touches.

He hasn't said anything about transit, so people are only thinking about the extremes.

 

[hw621]

Why does everyone say this? Has he even said that he would cut funding to Metrolinx or eliminate GO RER? Seems like an easy win for him to keep it considering all the conservative ridings that the GO system touches.

I believe the fear stems from his (or people's) anti-transit perceptions and the last Conservative government (aka, Mike Harris)...

 

[rbt]

Why does everyone say this? Has he even said that he would cut funding to Metrolinx or eliminate GO RER? Seems like an easy win for him to keep it considering all the conservative ridings that the GO system touches.

It's going to be really hard to fund GO capital/operations + balance books + implement a tax cut + no layoffs. Really hard. GO is one of the few flexible (no contractual requirements enforced by 3rd parties) budgets he can actually "find efficiencies" within. That tax cut will also put a serious crimp on borrowing capabilities.

Also, history. One of the things to appear in Rob's first (and only) self-created budget was transit cuts. Not just the LRT lines; but bus services to to same people he was claiming to be supporting with the Scarborough extension. Doug had a hand in everything Rob did.

Doug will praise RER while simultaneously defunding GO operations including their capital support departments (engineering, project management, legal, etc.). It won't be cancelled but it may be deferred by 4 years.

 

[raptor]

It's going to be really hard to fund GO capital/operations + balance books + implement a tax cut + no layoffs. Really hard. GO is one of the few flexible (no contractual requirements enforced by 3rd parties) budgets he can actually "find efficiencies" within.

Also, history. One of the things to appear in Rob's first (and only really) budget was transit cuts. Not just the LRT lines; but bus services to to same people he was claiming to be supporting with the Scarborough extension.

RER won't be cancelled, just deferred by 4 to 8 years (see Sheppard LRT for what it looks like; thanks McGuinty).

Can you add a disclaimer that this is your opinion? You make it sound like it's been set in stone already.
To date, there have been 0 mentions from the Ford camp on transit. As much as I despise him, I'm hopeful my fears are for nothing.

 

[crs1026]

Here's the reason to be worried about RER. It is not Doug, it is the dynamics of the capital spend at this point in time.

Note that the heaviest capital spending is ahead of us. By the end of FY 2018, however, ML will in theory have spent $4B on RER (actually, I suspect they haven't got out of the gate as fast as the BCA lays out.... but lots of money is being spent.)

Any incoming government will look at this fiscal year's spend, plus the last couple of years, and ask the question, "What have we gotten for this money?"

The honest, objective answer is: "Not much. Prettier stations, lots of parking garages, acres and acres of engineering drawings, and studies. But little added capacity and only minimal additions to the service profile. Ridership hasn't gone up that much (yet).

The next question will be, "Well, how do we get this investment to pay off?"

The answer to that is, "Spend another $15B" and "Then wait until 2023 when we think revenue will begin to rise"

Any sensible politician, of any stripe, will not fall for that kind of rope-a-dope play.

ML's mistake has been to back end load the key spending. And then implement a two year delay by moving to the AFP model. And be scrupulous about not favouring one line over another.

Had they picked one line, and intensively upgraded it, that line might be done today, and it might encourage voters to demand fast action on the other lines.

With the Ontario deficit where it is, any sensible incoming Finance Minister will say, "OK, I support RER, but you get only $1.5B per year for as long as it takes." Just look at what capping RER capex at $1.5B annually does to the intended in service dates.

Don't be afraid of Ford, be afraid of Wynne. Have you read the social spending she is promising at the moment? Free daycare for preschoolers is the latest promise. I'm not for or against that, I'm just saying that with Ontario's borrowing effectively capped, the only option she has to fund daycare is to remove $2.3B from somewhere else. Such as RER.

Horvath is making similar promises. Her ability to borrow will be just as constrained - in fact the street might be extra leery of a more left leaning government when they come to borrow. She will have to move money from somewhere.

Ford will undoubtedly steer the ship back towards a balanced budget. He hasn't made any comments about transit - yet - but the big hump in the RER capex shown above is borrowed money. Figure it out.

- Paul

 

[felix123]

Can you add a disclaimer that this is your opinion? You make it sound like it's been set in stone already.
To date, there have been 0 mentions from the Ford camp on transit. As much as I despise him, I'm hopeful my fears are for nothing.

I understand your desire for completely factual statements, as many on this forum are nervous about a Doug Ford win and how (we collectively, strongly assume) that that will be a disaster for public works infrastructure in the province, particularly for transit.
However, the PC party, the Ford family, and Doug Ford himself have not shown any interest in actually building transit and together have actively cancelled the Eglinton subway and most of the Transit City projects, and defunded bus service including in Scarborough. In place, they waved an untenable carrot (the Scarborough Subway Extension) in front of their constituents that would be too expensive to actually have to deliver. Yep, the Liberals didn't help much on that one, but we got the crosstown under them - a direct reaction to what Mike Harris did with the subway.

Go Transit operates in the suburbs, but not all suburbanites are conservatives. Do you really think Doug Ford and his neocon ilk are amenable to anything besides the car (and airplane)? In essence, what I'm saying is that we know who Doug Ford is already and are making predictions about what he'll do based on everything he's done before, and even if he stated some cursory support for Go Transit prior to the election, we would be better off looking at history than believing his claims.

 

[Neutrino]

I remember someone in this forum saying that $13.5 billion (or $21.3 billion, take your pick) is a vast sum to spend for a relatively small number of new riders. I believe the exact phrase was something like "the GO RER spend will make SSE look like a good investment." Can anyone speak to this? What kind of ridership is GO RER expected to have?

 

[raptor]

PT-2017-CRHS-317 - PT-2017-CRHS-317: Construction of Lincolnville Layover Expansion