We seem to just keep buying more GO trains instead of creating turnback capacity so each trainset does double duty. RER will change that eventually. I wonder what the planned lifespan of the bilevels are. The oldest cars in the fleet will be 40 years old soon. That's impressive, but they won't last forever.
- Paul
I predict up to 60 years for individual coaches, and 100 years for the model (still being manufactured today). Not necessarily with GO.
For GO, I see bilevels used well into the 2030s, and very probably 2040s+.
Alongside an expanding-fleet of EMUs, too. We still have lots of electrification longshots:
- Niagara
- Hamilton
- Richmond Hill
- Kitchener-Waterloo
Nearly all coaches manufactured in 1978 are still in use today! Almost none has been retired at all. They are in demand by other North American commuter railroads, any retired coach is promptly snapped up and refurbished. I see no reason why the newer coaches could last elsewhere in North America till the 2060s or even 2070s. (I'd even bet my mortgage on it)
In fact, GO's oldest bilevel (formerly #2001), manufactured in ~1977, is still in service in Utah's FrontRunner commuter train service! (GO sold some coaches to them during the GO cutbacks, IIRC). In fact, I am almost completely unable to find a single specimen of a permanently retired Bombardier BiLevel that's not because of some accident or catastrophic damage.
They are
still being manufactured in the factory today for Metrolinx (particularly the new cabs, but
also coaches). There are also recently manufactured non-cab coaches only a few years old, too.
The oldest coaches presumably would be sold off first, but there are many coaches manufactured just this year (the new cabs). Also, despite electrification GO plans to refurbish the coaches with new seating at something like 2 coaches a month, and they said it would take more than 15 years to finish installing the new interiors/seats into their oldest coaches. That places GO's last planned refurbishment of a Bombardier Bilevel into the early half of 2030s, whereupon it can easily last into the 2040s or 2050s if necessary.
After a good EMU deployment, they may eventually sell some bilevel consists but not all of them... Niagara (
www.niagarago.ca is going to come by the end of the decade) is probably not going to be electrified for decades. Neither will Richmond Hill, and it will not be till at least mid 2030s before Hamilton gets electrified.
Worse comes to worse, I can easily see the new cabs and the newer coaches being used till the 2050s on many North American commuter railways. They are a durable model unto itself, like the
Hercules C-130 (1954, still made today), the Boeing 737 (1966, still made today) and are still being manufactured for GO as we speak.
Honestly, I really don't expect to see BiLevels disappear from GO's network in my lifetime. Maybe 80%-90%+ replaced, but not a complete disappearance.
(
source)
Coach numbered 2056.
August 29, 1978 at the Ex... This coach is
still carrying commuters this morning. I saw this coach less than a month ago! Now consider there are also some coaches and cabs manufactured recently, too, from orders made before the $13.5bn electrification decision. Those could very easily last to the 2050s or 2060s, if GO wished.
Certainly an individual coach probably won't be used for 100 years, but as a brand/model line, the newest ones rolling out of the factory this year, is now well equipped to reach the brand's 100th anniversary still-in-service somewhere.
It is possible, given the recently refurbished 1970s models (the ones with new seats installed) expected to last well into the late 2020s -- a delta of 50+ years -- then resold for continued service elsewhere.
I would thusly be not be too surprised if one of the world's commuter railroads currently using them (Utah, Florida, California, Vancouver, etc) will still be using a refurbished version of the oldest Metrolinx-resold circa-2016 new-cabs by year 2078 -- with an electric locomotive at the opposite end of the consist -- for the 100th anniversary of the first BiLevel's manufacture -- a very similar delta of 60 years after the manufacture of the first model.
