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GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

Bojaxs said:
Am I the only one who thinks all this Smart Track, RER, Electrification stuff is all just a pipe dream? I don't think the politicians are very serious about electrifying the system either.
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Am I the only one who thinks any big transit progress is just a pipe dream?

I'm holding out on autonomous cars making public transit in the suburbs unnecessary...mainly because it behooves private industry to get the technology to market so they can sell more cars...it can also use the existing infrastructure with added network capabilities.

TL;DR I have more faith in the advent of autonomous cars than Toronto's Transit future
 
BMO said:
Am I the only one who thinks any big transit progress is just a pipe dream?
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Lots of progress is already happening in Ontario; there's a transit boom currently buffered in the pipeline, after a long dearth.
- 7 different LRTs (3 already under construction)
- York subway extension
- New streetcars (albiet delayed), and Leslie Barns to go with it
- Ongoing GO upgrades
- Union revitalization (complete 2017, with large mall)
- GO electrification (now all but assured after Oct 19)

Not even counting SmartTrack (which I just view as an 'enhancement' of GO RER), Scarborough subway, DRL, etc, all of which may very well be extant by 2030-2040s.

Concrete ties are not needed on electric railroads, though it's useful in a migration to high speed trains. Freight trains go under catenary in Europe, so I'm not sure where you got those from. Existing "#NewGOride" cabs and bilevels are also compatible with electric locomotives. Specific routes with high-density infill stationsl, would get EMUs for faster acceleration, such as the GO RER Kitchener-Stoufville routing (the SmartTrack routing).

Electric trains can provide 20% faster GO service WITHOUT needing to raise existing railroad speed limits. Also, I've been on a diesel bilevel GO train that zoomed to Burlington GO station in only 30 minutes after Union. This was only possible in express mode. But with fast deceleration-acceleration of electric trains, it's easier to achieve.

BMO said:
TL;DR I have more faith in the advent of autonomous cars than Toronto's Transit future
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Category level 4 driverless cars (legally allowed to chauffer kids and drunks, solo) will be great when it finally arrives (~2040-ish), but is not mutually exclusive of transit. We will probably have a couple of decades of Level 3 before cars are finally allowed to drive empty between ride hails, for example. Consider regulatory and legal hurdles (e.g. taxi protests). It's going to take a generation.

Car lanes can only move 2000 cars per hour, tailgating less than 2 seconds (there are only 3,600 seconds in 1 hour). A single GO train has that many seats. I haven't counted the standees yet.

Driverless cars will be great connectors to mass transit. Imagine the son of a "dial-a-bus" (like GO 1973 service, or uberPOOL) picking people up quickly in surrounding areas and quickly shuttling them to the nearest fast rapid transit station. Either or both at the originating and destination of mass transit.
 
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mdrejhon said:
Lots of progress is already happening in Ontario
- 7 different LRTs (3 already under construction)
- York subway extension
- New streetcars (albiet delayed)
- Ongoing GO upgrades
- Union revitalization (complete 2017, with large mall)

Category level 4 driverless cars (legally allowed to chauffer kids and drunks, solo) will be great when it finally arrives (~2040-ish), but is not mutually exclusive of transit. We will probably have a couple of decades of Level 3 before cars are finally allowed to drive empty between ride hails, for example. Consider regulatory and legal hurdles (e.g. taxi protests). It's going to take a generation.

Car lanes can only move 2000 cars per hour, tailgating less than 2 seconds (there are only 3,600 seconds in 1 hour). A single GO train has that many seats.

Driverless cars will be great connectors to mass transit. Imagine the son of a "dial-a-bus" (like GO 1973 service, or uberPOOL) picking people up quickly in surrounding areas and quickly shuttling them to the nearest fast rapid transit station. Either or both at the originating and destination of mass transit.
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I think the best benefit of autonomous cars will be the better efficiency of the road network with fewer accidents, and the ability of those roads to carry a greater capacity of vehicles. But even besides that I think autonomous cars will represent a reliable time for travelling. Even if i take an autonomous car and it takes me 40 minutes to get to work, at least I know that it'll take me 40 minutes 90% of the time. Today, whether you drive, or take transit you never know what surprise your commute has in store for you.

Even so, autonomous vehicles represent a great way to funnel people into public transit like GO stations, etc which will still serve a very prominent role in urban centres.
 
Exactly....

One exception: Autonomous cars won't be as predictable time during rush hour.

Road capacity is less predictable than public transit capacity.

The Lakeshore West line moves as many people in 1 hour using a mere 8 trains (the 8 trains timetabled 4:45pm-5:45pm), as the entire width of 401 combined for a full hour.

That is, number of cars passing an imaginary line across all 401 lanes, during one hour -- the total is less than these 8 LSW GO trains. And we know how slow the 401 becomes during rush hour. So as we densify with condos, there will be no way to avoid public transit even in the autonomous car world.

And we know our downtown roads aren't getting wider, as we get a never-ending condo boom continuing. Density is increasing without wider roads. It will never be pleasant or predictable to commute in any form of car, driverless or otherwise, during rush hour as a downtown dweller, through many downtown intersections.

Fortunately, they aren't mutually exclusive. I expect Phase 1 GO electricification to complete (even with a full decade delay to 2035!) before car Level 4 autonomy is legalized in Ontario. That said, I agree Level 3 autonomy (person with driving license still required to be seated in car, ready to take over) will probably occur before GO electrification.

Capacity, capacity will also affect driverless cars. They'll still gridlock, even after accounting for efficiency improvements like no need for curbside parking (since they can valet themselves out of the way), etc.

Even with the first introduction of the Level 4 cars, it probably will take at least a decade or two (that brings us to ~2065) before ownership is 100%. This is needed before cars are legally legislated to valet themselves out of the way -- to free up downtown Toronto road capacity -- i.e. the ability to permanently remove streetside parking 24/7 from downtown Toronto. But what good would that do during peak hour anyway; there's no curbside parking allowed during peak hour anyway. Touché. We'll have Kitchener high speed trains by then.

Level 4 isn't going to be approved until they can safely drive your kid in the middle of a snowstorm with 25% damage to car sensors; with redundancy enough to recover when the kid is robo-chauffered solo, and ice shatters a few sensors by accident, car smart enough to recover and drive itself to self-servicing before sensor damage exceeds legal limits. Today's Google Car isn't even able to drive reliably in a rainstorm yet.

We're going to be stuck at Level 3 autonomy (glorified version of Tesla autopilot, with legal laptop/texting being allowed provided you can intervene within 10 seconds) for a long time yet.

Level 3 (monitored)....We'll see it real damn soon, and finally legally text/work (within law).
But it is a big leap to let the car go empty solo in a snowstorm. (not including the Jacquard Loom moment by taxi drivers)
Level 4 (self-valeting)....We won't see it for a long time here in Ontario. (2040s+ is my guess)

Driverless cars are exciting, but the sequence of events (level 3-level 4-insurance-regulatory-market penetration-road restructuring-etc) isn't going to affect the speed your car commute very much in your lifetime -- without the help of transit connectors to speed things up and relieve congestion.

Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping my family's next vehicle is at least a Level 3 autonomous.
Actually: we'd be pleased with Level 4 self-valeting zipcars/hertz/avis/taxi/ubers (no difference when they do the same thing)!
 
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mdrejhon said:
Level 4 isn't going to be approved until they can safely drive your kid in the middle of a snowstorm with 25% damage to car sensors; with redundancy enough to recover when the kid is robo-chauffered solo, and ice shatters a few sensors by accident, car smart enough to recover and drive itself to self-servicing before sensor damage exceeds legal limits. Today's Google Car isn't even able to drive reliably in a rainstorm yet.

We're going to be stuck at Level 3 autonomy (glorified version of Tesla autopilot, with legal laptop/texting being allowed provided you can intervene within 10 seconds) for a long time yet.

....

Driverless cars are exciting, but the sequence of events (level 3-level 4-insurance-regulatory-market penetration-road restructuring-etc) isn't going to affect the speed your car commute very much in your lifetime -- without the help of transit connectors to speed things up and relieve congestion.

Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping my family's next vehicle is at least a Level 3 autonomous.
Actually: we'd be pleased with Level 4 self-valeting zipcars/hertz/avis/taxi/ubers (no difference when they do the same thing)!
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The catch is that it seems like the biggest hurdles are technology and policy. It's much easier to change policy than it is to come up with $ billions of dollars. As with technology everyday we get surprises. I wouldn't be surprised if the technology is 20 years away today, but only 5 years away in 5 years.

Good points though, safe to say transit will still be needed, but it's an interesting thought about how some of the biggest issues that plague our existing transit system can be filled by upcoming technology. Thanks for the insights!
 
A bit off topic....but I know very little about self driving/autonomous cars......how does their software deal with my wife telling them we would be there by now if it had just taken the route she "suggested"? Have they worked on that yet?
 
TOareaFan said:
A bit off topic....but I know very little about self driving/autonomous cars......how does their software deal with my wife telling them we would be there by now if it had just taken the route she "suggested"? Have they worked on that yet?
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full autonomous (or as mdrejhon says, Level 4) would allow the user to pick and choose a route just like a GPS, you can make adjustments while on route. The theory is that all the cars would be part of the Internet of Things , a giant network that could be for a city, region or even a province/ country that would allow every single car to be in constant contact with the network to dynamically have the vehicles pick the best route and having each car choose their routes based on how many cars are planning to go on a particular road so theoretically you wouldn't get 5000 people going down the same sidestreet because they have the same GPS device, the cars would be smart enough to know that 2000 people already have routes taking them down that road so it would know to adjust and use another road.

Autonomous cars are as much about the automatic nature of them as they are about finally allowing the entire network to efficiently divert traffic depending on performance indicators of the system like travel times, average speed, capacity usage of roadways, etc.

TL;DR the hope is your wife will never feel a need to suggest her way was better
 
Levels of autonomy for self-driving cars.
Source: NHTSA.gov

Level 0 -- your old manual gearshift
Level 1 -- simple cruise control
Level 2 -- combo, such as cruse control, adaptive braking and automated lanekeep
Level 3 -- you must monitor and takeover if car demands you to (alarm/shaker). Can legally text/work.
Level 4 -- permitted to drive empty; self-valetting, can drive your kid or drunk person. You can even sleep!

The latter level 4 is required for empty Ubers/Avis/Hertz/Zipcars/Taxis to go between rides, or self-park themselves somewhere (e.g. parking garage) when not in use. Basically, full complete automation with enough intelligence, on unfamiliar roads, in the worst weather, with some damaged sensors, fully safely. Trusting your car to drive your children for you, by itself!

The new Tesla Autopilot, the most advanced now available in consumer hands, is somewhere between Level 2 and Level 3 in capability.

Level 4 is required before a car can drive somebody who doesn't have a driver's license. Or solo car occupant legally sleeping in the car during a long, overnight drive. Or driving somebody who's drunk. Etc.
 
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To steer things back on topic,
  • transit-oriented development is arriving to Aldershot GO
  • parking lot massively overflowed a few times recently at Aldershot GO, forcing people to park streetside.
  • large parking expansion under way
Both N and S parking lot massively overflowed, some even parked on the grass.

I guess a decade, and then we also see some stores/shops and a parking garage, for the 15-min GO RER days. Lots of potential development land, hopefully not only for townhomes; including other walkable amenities. I guess we will see.

aldershot1.jpg

Transit oriented development...........at Aldershot GO??

aldershot2.jpg

Over 2,000 cars squeezed into two parking lots designed for 1,689 cars. Overflow on streetside, on grass, etc.

aldershot3.jpg

Panorama of development opportunity

aldershot4.jpg

Panorama of upcoming further parking expansion towards the east (it looks so level, it could be a foundation for a future Aldershot GO parking garage, maybe they're protecting for that)

The latter photo is the GO construction; the continued perpetual parking lot expansions occuring at Aldershot GO. Since early 2014, there's been something like 200-ish additional spaces (as seen by the newer asphalt). I now can see it: Aldershot in 2030s might no longer be as suburban as today, given the concept of a condo+parking garage in the 15-min RER era. Burlington fields are in high demand, still.
 

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TOareaFan said:
A bit off topic....but I know very little about self driving/autonomous cars......how does their software deal with my wife telling them we would be there by now if it had just taken the route she "suggested"? Have they worked on that yet?
Click to expand...

Even if there is no interface, you can tell her to stand infront of the car at the intersections and pretend to be a police officer. As you can see from the below video (kinda long) Google's car understands hand signals.

Some of the unexpected situations they encounted are quite hilarious if you care to watch.

https://www.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_car_sees_the_road?language=en
 
DonValleyRainbow said:
Where do these riders come from? Waterdown? Ancaster/Dundas? Burlington?
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All over west and central Hamilton, Dundas, Ancaster, Waterdown and west Burlington; I wouldn't even be surprised if a few came in from Brant County. Aldershot has "free" parking, the easiest highway access of all Lakeshore West stations, and all-day train service, which Hamilton GO Centre or West Harbour don't enjoy. Burlington station is more convenient for central Burlington, as well as East Hamilton/Stoney Creek and those in Niagara who'd rather drive than transfer from the bus.
 
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