LOL You opened a bag of potato chips here. Some of us can't resist.
In the spirit of raiding the Hallowe'en candy, I found myself asking the fantasy question, and could not resist musing:
"What is the de minimus alteration to the CP Galt Sub that can be done quickly and cheaply and would enable a significant improvement in GO service to Milton"
The minimum change worth discussing is hourly service with the same 'no counterpeak" premise as Kitchener is currently constrained by. (Counterpeak on a two line heavy freight railroad is an unrealistic ask, IMHO, so not worth debating).
So here's my amateur sideline analysis and fantasy plan.
First, the existing track arrangement does (on paper) enable two way hourly service, assuming trains pass between Erindale and Mississauga and again east of Dupont on the ML owned segment. To do this, cp would have to release one track from Milton to Erindale, two tracks from Erindale to Mississauga (that stretch has three) and one track from Mississauga to Dixie. East of Dixie, there is a third track so CP retains two.
I assumed that the twice-hourly crossover from the north track at Royal York to the southmost track at Scarlett Road is operationally benign, in the same way that CN is able to accommodate hourly 2WAD between Peel and Brampton. There is adequate trackage west of Royal York and east of Scarlett so CP can hold any freights that cross paths with hourly GO.
The challenge (and what likely makes CPKC so resistant) is.... with GO taking sole posession of that one track dawn to midnight, CP has only a single track from Dixie to Milton West with no passing points. That's a stretch of roughly 20 miles, which is too long a gap given the (modest) number of freights run at present. Compounding the problem is the level crossings west of Milton West.... in fact, CP would have to hold eastbound freights on the grade up to Guelph Junction so that they don't block the crossings..... and stopping and holding on the grade is not safe.
So the solution has to be to add trackage east of Milton and west of Dixie to give CP the ability to run trains in both directions simultaneously. (The fact that CP does not do so in the current rush hour peak periods can't be used to argue they can do so beyond the curfew times). The nice part is that much of CP's main lines are indeed single track with passing tracks 9-10 miles apart. So, in the zone from Milton East to Dixie, a single 3-mile passing site would leave only two 8.5ish mile gaps, which is no worse than either west of Guelph Jct or north of Bolton or east of Agincourt.
And the challenge there is, where to find a place to site a passing zone without blocking crossings. (one has to assume that meets may not happen perfectly, and one train may have to stop and wait for more than the legal 5-minute limit on blocking crossings). The number of remaining crossings at grade on this line is why it is so unrealistic to think that CP can run hourly service by just dispatching differently and trying to interleave freight and passenger trains on the existing tracks. And the cost of grade separation is one part of why ML gets sticker shock on this line.
My fantasy ask of CP
1) Signalise the service track between Milton GO and the Milton GO yard, so it can be used as the dedicated GO track, giving CP a passing track east from Milton West
2) New junction just west of Fifth Line that routes GO trains on and off the main, giving CP a 2.3 mile passing segment east of Milton West and letting eastbound freights advance to about mp 29.7 before holding
3) New third track from just east of 10th Line to Britannia Road - gives a roughly 3.5 mile passing space free of level crossings and not requiring new major bridgework that is roughly spaced halfway between Dixie and Milton West. From Google Earth, the land appears to be favourable, there are no level crossings, and the only major civil work required would be three small bridges over creeks. (Assuming no utility shifts or impact on sewers etc)
4) I also considered a new third track west of 9th line. That one would be a bit short, CPKC might not feel it would be adequate. But if built it would only need two smaller bridges over creeks, so not an unrealistic capital spend.
As a sidewalk observer, I would think that is all that CPKC really needs to keep its trains moving. Others can propose alternative layouts - the challenges will be in how expensive and time consuming they would be, especially since just about any other additions will demand grade separations and/or major bridges. My point is simply, there is absolutely no room to move beyond the hourly premise without spending a lot of money. Even my single track ask of CPKC may be laughed out of the Boardroom.
Again, my personal view is that such a scheme will take 3 years to design and build, and will only bring demands for 30 minute or better service and counterpeak service. So jumping to do this as a stopgap will only delay doing the bigger and more detailed negotiation and design to get to true 2WAD with more attractive headways.
And again, suggesting bihourly service or three or four runs staggered across the day does not offer enough marketability and people moved to be worth the effort.
Hence, in the end, I continue to argue: swallow hard, understand there will be a wait, and then get this designed and built with a full solution in mind from the start.
- Paul
PS apologies for the substandard artwork. Purple - new track proposed. Blue - needed bridging, Black - Constraining level crossings. Green - GO Red - CPKC
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