Outside of improving the existing line to Hamilton/Toronto, what other lines do you suggest serve Niagara Falls? Niagara Falls to Welland? I do think that there could be a market for a Welland line following the canal and serving Port Colbourne, Welland, Thorold, and St Catherines. Though I don't think that would be in the purvue of GO transit, it would probably be it's own type of service.
Similarly London might have potential for a GO style regional rail but IMO is outside the GTA, and like Welland might be better served with a different kind of service from current GO trains.
I think we have to be realistic and pragmatic about how far the network extends beyond the backbone GO line, and how we grow ridership and first-last mile services. If you ask me which ones belong in a 2050 plan, I would say "all of them". If you ask me to put down money on which ones actually get built, I would be far less expansive. It has to be an incremental process.
The reality is that in the broader areas, we still have an effective and useful solution that gets enough people to the GO station: the automobile. Only when parking lots are full, and parking garages are no longer cost effective, will people abandon that modality (I would certainly be offering free transfers, charging for parking, and not overbuilding garage space, but it's a balance). And then we still have a cheap and effective upgraded service for a few years: the bus.
The obvious first step is to begin adding frequent and convenient bus services feeding the GO stations. I am hopeful that some of the mini-bus on-demand trials will be successful and create a rapid upsurge in demand, to the point of every suburb soon demanding one. As to the cross routes suggested (Hamilton-Brantford, Hamilton-Kitchener, Guelph-Hamilton etc) it's nice to dream about some reincarnation of the interurbans, or some LRT variant.... but the immediate need is good 15-minute bus service on all of these.... and then let demand and frustration with the road congestion create demand for higher-order solutions. We can draw those lines on a map, but selling them and raising funding is a different proposition.
I don't see any route in the Niagara area that can offer the ridership potential to build new corridors just yet. Extending peak GO service beyond Hamilton Center towards Welland is an interesting idea, especially if combined with express to Toronto. But adding that capacity to the freight line is in itself is costly and requires an interface with CPKC that will take time to sell and cultivate.
London is crying to be the hub for regional bus lines. Again, I see no need to jump to building rail - but building a much more intensive feeder system into VIA stations in Stratford, Woodstock, Brantford, Ingersoll, Chatham would definitely move the needle on the business case for better rail service on both the Brantford and Kitchener lines. Until 2050, it will be a challenge just to upgrade those main lines to provide more frequent regional service on top of the freight capacity required.
The 2075 plan will be really cool - but it may take that long.
- Paul