Future of Commuting - Forbes

[PukeGreen]

Since the invention of the chariot, humans have progressed toward personal transportation

This "progress" is in the eye of the beholder. If farmland covered in parking lots, box stores, drunk driving, climate change, road rage, smog, extreme commuting, drive-throughs and social isolation can be considered progress... then sure, I guess.

Chocolate cake is a tasty treat now and then, but if you ate 25 slices a day and nothing else, you'd get sick. Likewise, cars have their place as a means of transportation but we've abused them to the extreme and we are ruining our world -- and our economies -- in the process. The point is not to eliminate all personal cars; it's to reduce their use to when they're really needed, and provide other alternatives like public transportation, bike lanes, and walkable communities when those things make more sense. Then we can have our cake and eat it too.

 

[Hipster Duck]

I've read "Sprawl" and my biggest critique of that book isn't the idea of championing auto-centrism, it's that Bruegemann ultimately belives that progress, throughout human history, is linear, and that Americans are sort of the torchbearers of the flame of human civilization. He looks at sprawl from a world historical perspective, asserting that Hadrian moved the Roman aristocracy outside of Rome's walls therefore the rush of affluent American professionals to exurbia is a further manifestation of those universal human ideals.

He also has the tendency, like Wendell Cox, to hide behind density statistics (itself problematic, because density doesn't tell you anything about a city's makeup, travel patterns, etc.), and not distinguish between metropolitan regions and built-up areas. Thus, Phoenix and Las Vegas are "denser" than Paris, even though the Ile de France definition of metropolitan Paris is probably over 50% farmland and those desert sprawlers have a very defined hard edge to their physical boundaries, beyond which is a uninhabitable desert.

 

[Archivist]

For those truly wanting to be conversant in energy issues, I find dogmatic articles like that from Forbes to be fairly unhelpful. I think it is safe to say that while energy issues are acheiving greater prominence in the media, the reporting remains superficial and not well informed.

For those interested, here is a really great, though dry, article on the Ten Principles of Net Energy from a website called "The Encyclopedia of Earth". It's a dispassionate, well footnoted examination of the concept of "Energy return on Investment", which is a key concept to understand if you are trying to evaluate claims that are made about high arctic oil, shale oil, ethanol, etc. One of the things that is alarming about the depletion of the world's purest and largest sources of oil is that oil is such an amazing source of energy for it's weight and volume.

 

[Glen]

For those interested, here is a really great, though dry, article on the Ten Principles of Net Energy from a website called "The Encyclopedia of Earth". It's a dispassionate, well footnoted examination of the concept of "Energy return on Investment", which is a key concept to understand if you are trying to evaluate claims that are made about high arctic oil, shale oil, ethanol, etc. One of the things that is alarming about the depletion of the world's purest and largest sources of oil is that oil is such an amazing source of energy for it's weight and volume.

Missing from that article is the majority of oils value is related to the fact that it is in effect portable energy. Even the EROI of oil is 1 there remains a net value because this fact.

 

[Dichotomy]

Much can be done with the auto, even in its present form. Clearly the SUV craze (in its present form at least) is going to have to abate, but it is possible to build economical, fun cars that get 5 l/100 or better. Oil can be stretched. $30 a barrel oil is gone. Probably even $50 a barrel oil is gone, but at $100+ there is plenty of oil, and inflation will eat into the 'real' cost of oil eventually.
Think about the advantage of a vehicle like the upcoming Chevrolet Volt: with a reported range of 70km on a single charge, for most drivers they will be able to run completely on electric. Using Smart Meter technology (which a lot of newer homes and condos have), the vehicle will can be recharged over night when rates are lower and when nuclear plants have excess power. Another aspect being spoken of with these types of electric vehicles is the fact that they may be used to run people's homes in times of emergency (like in '03 when we had no power for 24 hours!), as the on-board generator could feed back into the power grid of the house - perhaps not cost effectively, but as an emergency it would be useful.
I've heard about strides in the use of ceramics for future engine blocks and their leap of efficiency. Another 'innovation' is the way many cities are decentralizing - having multiple downtowns to allow traffic to move in different directions, rather than in the same direction at the same time of day. (I know this is true because the Gardiner is pretty much jammed in both directions at 8:30 a.m and 4:30 a.m. when I most use it!)

I did my time on the TTC and admittedly the cost of a car can be daunting, but the freedom it affords is unparalleled. I can take my bicycle to the Bruce Trail in Collingwood. How could the TTC or Go Bus accomplish that?
Are there 'costs' involved. Certainly. But as with the refrigerator and lawn mower, these are modern conveniences that have ramifications beyond their uses. Ever since the wheel was invented, there has been a balance between cost and benefit. Society is constantly re evaluating the 'worth' technology brings to our lives. Like on this Board.

On a side note, I read recently that as a percentage of GDP, energy use has dropped from somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% to less than 35%, which speaks to the level of efficiency with how we utilize energy. That includes an unprecedented increase in the use of the automobile.

 

[Hydrogen]

For this reason, I find it hard to agree with this statement: In the long run the powering of cars will not be the major issue; the increasing quantity of cars will be. We are many years away from increasing our nuclear capacity, and the government would need to do a pretty big about-face to expand coal capacity. I think the powering of cars could become an issue.

And actually, I should point out that the singular focus on cars and how we will power them is not the greatest issue with energy scarcity. Trucks, for instance, have become essential to the movement of goods, for basically everything, and no one is talking about electric trucks at any point, ever. This is why truckers have been protesting all over the globe lately - though what they think governments are able to do is beyond me. So, anything that is moved by truck is likely to get more expensive, and there is nothing else that is going to fuel trucks in the near or far future. Planes, ditto, which is why a couple dozen airlines have failed lately, routes are being chopped, and more airline failures are almost certainly around the corner. The constant focus on personal cars is, in my view, missing some of the greater potential for problems that may arise.

Presently, cars and trucks use oil in order to operate. While the price of oil has gone up (and down) there is no near-term shortage of the product. There are, however, a number of restrictions in place with respect to accessing proven reserves.

When it comes to energy, there should always be - as you know - distinctions made between generating electricity and producing fuel for transportation. My long run comment was making reference to a period of decades. I don't think any switch from gasoline to electric power for cars will be an over night event, but it has a greater likelihood of happening because the electricity infrastructure is in place and electric vehicles are already established. We don't need completely new technologies, but improvements in efficiency for existing technologies.

Yes, trucks and aircraft face different problems in terms of replacement for conventional fuels, but if consumption in oil drops off for cars, then there is less immediate pressure in terms of price and availability of fuel for these modes of transportation. For the time being, improvements in aircraft technology, such as more efficient engines and use of light weight materials in aircraft construction, will help improve efficiency with respect to fuel. Deregulation, airport and tax costs, and an extremely competitive market environment have also contributed to certain airlines going under.

Part of the slow pace of putting up new electrical production is regulatory. Also, the placement of any new electrical generation facilities can be greatly affected by local politics. These things could be streamlined if there is the will to do so.

 

[Glen]

Solar Energy Breakthrough!
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html
http://www.forbes.com/energy/2008/07/30/nocera-solar-power-biz-energy-cz_jf_0731solar.html
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/...d=2JLKEZDUPJZA0QSNDLSCKHA?articleID=209900956

Nocera's discovery--a cheap and easy way to store energy that he thinks will be used to change solar power into a mainstream energy source--will be published in the journal Science on Friday. "This is the nirvana of what we've been talking about for years," said Nocera, the Henry Dreyfus Professor of Energy at MIT. "Solar power has always been a limited, far-off solution. Now we can seriously think about solar power as unlimited--and soon."

James Barber, a biochemistry professor at Imperial College London who studies artificial photosynthesis but was not involved in this research, called the discovery by Nocera and Kanan a "giant leap" toward generating clean, carbon-free energy on a massive scale.

"This is a major discovery with enormous implications for the future prosperity of humankind," he said. "The importance of their discovery cannot be overstated."

 

[toraerach]

Solar Energy Breakthrough!
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html
http://www.forbes.com/energy/2008/07/30/nocera-solar-power-biz-energy-cz_jf_0731solar.html
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/...d=2JLKEZDUPJZA0QSNDLSCKHA?articleID=209900956

The thing about renewable energy sources that differentiates it from gasoline/coal/etc. is that each area has its own assets that make one form of transportation possible while disallowing other forms. For example, in some parts of Europe bordering the Mediterranean parking meters run off of solar energy. They have enough sunshine to make this workable. Do we in this area get enough? I have no idea. Anyone know? Is solar power worthwhile here?

 

[afransen]

It still relies on PV, which is not yet cheap or plentiful, and fuel cells, which are also not cheap. It sounds like this has the potential to be a useful tool, but the claim that this will mark the obsolescence of industrial power generation is foolish. Anything so capital intensive can generally be done better by a utility than relatively capital-poor consumers.

No magic bullet... just another piece of the eventual solution.

 

[afransen]

The thing about renewable energy sources that differentiates it from gasoline/coal/etc. is that each area has its own assets that make one form of transportation possible while disallowing other forms. For example, in some parts of Europe bordering the Mediterranean parking meters run off of solar energy. They have enough sunshine to make this workable. Do we in this area get enough? I have no idea. Anyone know? Is solar power worthwhile here?

We could certainly run parking meters off of solar. Haven't you seen those huge LED roadside signs with the PV panels on them? It just a matter of a big enough battery and a big enough cell to guarantee a certain % (whether 95%, 99.9%, or 99.9999999%) of uptime.

 

[Long Island Mike]

How do we change our North American oil-dependent lifestyles?

Everyone: Good article concerning one man's opinion on commuting and sprawl - and our oil-dependent ways of life.

What will it take to drastically change our gasoline and diesel fuel consumption? Eight dollar or higher per gallon gas in the US and maybe three dollar per liter in Canada perhaps? I feel that the recent price spike is a warning of sorts-mostly driven by unregulated market speculation. In recent weeks oil has dropped more than $20 US in price so perhaps the price bubble has finally burst.

The thing that I am looking out for is possibility of any oil supply disruption due to a Gulf Coast USA hurricane as a good example sending oil prices higher as well as the distinct possibility of a conflict between Iran and Israel-if those Middle East supply lines are cut off completely and/or blocked oil could skyrocket again in price-one pundit mentioned perhaps $200 a barrel US or higher.

I have felt that our oil dependency here in North America may come back to hurt us someday-those days are now here I feel. We all use oil for so many of our needs-a good example here in the Northeastern USA is home heating oil-I am one of those people who heat my house with it also-and people are really worried that the high price will make it unaffordable for some-I recall that NYS is trying to enact a safety net for low-income people who will be hit very hard by high home heating oil prices.

For more then 60 years both the US and Canada have benefitted from growth fueled by and requiring cheap oil-perhaps those times are finally over. As for living in cities I feel that if oil prices do rise that cities-especially those with good local transit systems like NYC and Toronto will benefit-but those two cities have some of North America's highest priced real estate due to the fact that they are world-class financial capitols. Will cities like these become more affordable or become just enclaves for the wealthy as they look to be today?
Will lesser cities that have been maligned like Detroit become desireable again as places to live and benefit from the middle class returning to it?

In closing I hope that North America will benefit from a balanced transport system-not one slanted to benefit one mode over others like it is today.
We must find ways to curb our oil dependency-it will help us all in North America in the long run. Comments and observations by Long Island Mike

 

[TOinTO]

For example, in some parts of Europe bordering the Mediterranean parking meters run off of solar energy. They have enough sunshine to make this workable. Do we in this area get enough? I have no idea. Anyone know? Is solar power worthwhile here?

Haven't you noticed the solar panel hats on top of our meters? I don't think they provide all of the power, but they may be part of the reason the those stupid meters die in snowstorms.

 

[toraerach]

Haven't you noticed the solar panel hats on top of our meters? I don't think they provide all of the power, but they may be part of the reason the those stupid meters die in snowstorms.

I didn't notice til today actually. Guess I never really paid that much attention .

The point is that some things work in some places but not others. Who wants a solar car if they're stuck at home all winter?