Eglinton East LRT | Metrolinx

[syn]

I think that that they built most of the Crosstown, they'll know how much it'll cost. They are pretty much building another tunnel section of the crosstown on Eg West without a MSF. The tunneling cost should be similar. They have less stations and no interchange stations to worry about. The only thing new would be a bigger bridge over the Humber. The only questionable cost is the gas line under Eg West.

For the SSE, it's similar with just 3 stations. The only trouble portion is the Kennedy connection.

Virtually ever project in recent memory has seen cost increases. Combined with the fact that virtually all Ford projects have been under-priced, and I think it's safe to say the current estimates will increase.

 

[Voltz]

There were a number of reasons the price tag increased. From memory:

• The SSE necessitated a longer tunnel
• The MSF was supposed to be bundled into the SELRT, but will now be standalone
• The length of the project itself increased
• More engineering design firmed up the cost

I'm sure there are random other civil works thrown into this, for good measure.

EDIT:

1. Link to city report.
2. Northern Light's comment on the above

A big reason for the increase was also the decision to put it underground for about a km from before Lawrence to north of Kingston and Morningside, with an underground station, justified by deciding to extend the line to Malvern and run full service with three car trains, to make up for the SLRT being cancelled.

This underground section is just not needed, there will not be any near that level of ridership going to Malvern, and the line would follow the predominant flow of vehicle traffic, not getting in each others way.

 

[KhalilHeron]

A big reason for the increase was also the decision to put it underground for about a km from before Lawrence to north of Kingston and Morningside, with an underground station, justified by deciding to extend the line to Malvern and run full service with three car trains, to make up for the SLRT being cancelled.

This underground section is just not needed, there will not be any near that level of ridership going to Malvern, and the line would follow the predominant flow of vehicle traffic, not getting in each others way.

I don't agree with the station being put underground because of the Malvern extension, though as someone who lives right next to Kingston, Lawrence and Morningside, I know both Kingston and Morningside and especially Kingston and Lawrence have pretty damn high traffic volumes, and crazy long traffic light sequences, that I doubt they'd change much if the lrt ran at grade, so going underground to avoid the heavy traffic makes sense. The area is also quite busy, with lots of apartment and commercial space around it, so the ridership just from people around the station would be higher than most stops, It would also become the closes and most convenient "rapid Transit" station for a lot of people in Guildwood, West Hill, Port Union, and West Rouge, and would be quite busty with all of these people now using tat one station to get to the rest of the city. It will likely be one of the busiest stops on the EELRT (with traffic going west not east) and I think that justifies an underground station to avoid the nightmare of arterials there.

 

[TRONto]

I don't agree with the station being put underground because of the Malvern extension, though as someone who lives right next to Kingston, Lawrence and Morningside, I know both Kingston and Morningside and especially Kingston and Lawrence have pretty damn high traffic volumes, and crazy long traffic light sequences, that I doubt they'd change much if the lrt ran at grade, so going underground to avoid the heavy traffic makes sense. The area is also quite busy, with lots of apartment and commercial space around it, so the ridership just from people around the station would be higher than most stops, It would also become the closes and most convenient "rapid Transit" station for a lot of people in Guildwood, West Hill, Port Union, and West Rouge, and would be quite busty with all of these people now using tat one station to get to the rest of the city. It will likely be one of the busiest stops on the EELRT (with traffic going west not east) and I think that justifies an underground station to avoid the nightmare of arterials there.

That's what I was thinking for this tunnel. I remember looking at the options for this intersection and the tunnel is what made the most sense. The public was shown and I believe voted on the different options for this intersection.

I feel like a significant portion of the price upgrade might be coming from an assumption of $100m/km to now ~$250m/km (as Afransen mentioned for Hurontario) and then adding the extension gets you closer to 4b. 15km at $250m/km gets you $3.75b. Add in the new tunnels, bridges and the MSF and you get 4b.

In 2007, for the 13km Transit City version: "It was expected to cost approximately $1.26 billion including vehicles, property, escalation and an apportioned cost of the Maintenance and Storage facilities." That's less than 100m/km.

 

[Voltz]

I don't agree with the station being put underground because of the Malvern extension, though as someone who lives right next to Kingston, Lawrence and Morningside, I know both Kingston and Morningside and especially Kingston and Lawrence have pretty damn high traffic volumes, and crazy long traffic light sequences, that I doubt they'd change much if the lrt ran at grade, so going underground to avoid the heavy traffic makes sense. The area is also quite busy, with lots of apartment and commercial space around it, so the ridership just from people around the station would be higher than most stops, It would also become the closes and most convenient "rapid Transit" station for a lot of people in Guildwood, West Hill, Port Union, and West Rouge, and would be quite busty with all of these people now using tat one station to get to the rest of the city. It will likely be one of the busiest stops on the EELRT (with traffic going west not east) and I think that justifies an underground station to avoid the nightmare of arterials there.

I know the area is busy, but the substantial cost increase will just make the line even less likely to get built, and most of the traffic runs parallel to the line, which won't have an effect, and I think you are overestimating the riders who will be transferring here,

 

[KhalilHeron]

I know the area is busy, but the substantial cost increase will just make the line even less likely to get built, and most of the traffic runs parallel to the line, which won't have an effect, and I think you are overestimating the riders who will be transferring here,

I'm not saying it'll be anywhere near the ridership of ur average subway station, but it'll certainly be more than most stations along the route (eelrt route not line 5 as a whole). Also, I'd say about half of the traffic at Kingston and Morningside runs through along Kingston, but mind you it turns onto Morningside there so that's not parallel, and it seems to be pretty even at Lawrence and Kingston. I'm not saying the station absolutely needs to be buried here, but with its increased ridership, and heavily trafficked intersections right next to each other I feel it's a worthy investment for increased efficiency. The area is also seeing some minor redevelopment now with provisions for a lot more in the near future, so setting up a small transit hub to serve the neighbourhood as best as possible is probably good future-proofing.

 

[M II A II R II K]

But this extension is not included in todays transit funding map.

 

[superelevation]

Streetcars coming to Scarborough after all...using tax money from a subway fund implemented by the notorious streetcar hating former mayor. The irony is delicious.

Poor Rob must be turning over in his grave.

Streetcars crawling through Scarborough at the same speed as a bus does not sound delicious to me. Scarbrough is low density and sprawling - this is where speed matters most, but yknow LRT is the best. . .

Funny that it cost $4.2b to build this LRT and $4.7b to build the Eg west "subway". Yes Eg west is only 60% as long. A new MSF is probably consuming a chuck of it which was originally allocated to the Sheppard East LRT.

Not super surprising, surface LRT projects have been perhaps even more egregiously expensive than our subways, look at the prices other countries pay for tramways, they are often 50% or less what we pay. $250 million/km is subway cost in many places.

I think it's safe to assume both the EWLRT and SSE (and OL for that matter) will end up costing a lot more than currently quoted.

Maybe, but they shouldn't

 

[nfitz]

Hurontario cost $250M/km, not seeing why EELRT would be cheaper. No incremental MSF?

It includes an MSF. Although they are still debating location. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up at Conlins after all.

A lot of the savings, would be because I'd assume the city would build it with their traditional model of designing it 100%, and then tendering construction. Which reduces the timeframe and huge cost of having multiple bidders doing a 60% design in a co-operation with Metrolinx, IO, and TTC. And then all the extra profit and risk priced into the final amount. Not to mention the 30-years of maintenance (and in the case of the Ontario line - operation). At the same time though, the risk of cost increases is on the TTC/city. At the same time, the winning consortium always seems to find ways to put unanticipated costs onto the government - which we've seen on the Crosstown.

 

[Steve X]

Let's get the facts straight. According to the recent Audit, the construction cost of the Hurontario LRT is budgeted for $1.76B for 18km. Working out to be $97.8M/km. That was supposedly over budget.

Between April and May 2019, Metrolinx received two qualifying bids for the project. Despite the reduction in project scope, the final bids still came in higher than the initial Treasury Board-approved budget of $5 billion. The Ministry returned to the Treasury Board to seek a budget increase. In August 2019, the Treasury Board approved a total final project budget of $5.6 billion, based on the winning bid. This was an increase of 12% or $600 million more than the $5 billion originally approved. We also noted that the construction cost in this final approved budget was increased to $1.76 billion. This was 26% or $360-million higher than the $1.4 billion committed by the province in 2015 for the original scope.

Source: https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/annualreports/arreports/en20/20VFM_06metrolinxgov.pdf#page=42

A fun fact is ML actually over estimated the Finch West LRT and the project came in cheaper at $1.17B for 11km construction cost. That works out to be $106.3M/km.

For whatever reason the Hamilton LRT had a much higher estimated construction cost of $2.094B for 14km or $149.6M/km. Maybe it had something to do with being on different one way streets?? Of course the stated the $5.5B figure to kill the project.

So that roughly puts the construction cost at $100M/km not $250M/km. Subway cost is still over $300M/km.

Eglinton West "subway" has an early estimated cost of $3.473B construction cost for 9.2km or $377.5M/km without a MSF.
Source: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regiona...benefitscases/2020-02-28_ECWE_IBC.PDF#page=14

The LRT cost is clearly overballed to mess around with the public. The subway is probably underestimated. The crosstown comes in around $400M/km (2015$). It was $5.3B construction cost for 19km in 2015. It does have more stations per km however and includes a massive MSF.

 

[TRONto]

Let's get the facts straight. According to the recent Audit, the construction cost of the Hurontario LRT is budgeted for $1.76B for 18km. Working out to be $97.8M/km. That was supposedly over budget.


Source: https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/annualreports/arreports/en20/20VFM_06metrolinxgov.pdf#page=42

A fun fact is ML actually over estimated the Finch West LRT and the project came in cheaper at $1.17B for 11km construction cost. That works out to be $106.3M/km.

For whatever reason the Hamilton LRT had a much higher estimated construction cost of $2.094B for 14km or $149.6M/km. Maybe it had something to do with being on different one way streets?? Of course the stated the $5.5B figure to kill the project.

So that roughly puts the construction cost at $100M/km not $250M/km. Subway cost is still over $300M/km.

Eglinton West "subway" has an early estimated cost of $3.473B construction cost for 9.2km or $377.5M/km without a MSF.
Source: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regiona...benefitscases/2020-02-28_ECWE_IBC.PDF#page=14

The LRT cost is clearly overballed to mess around with the public. The subway is probably underestimated. The crosstown comes in around $400M/km (2015$). It was $5.3B construction cost for 19km in 2015. It does have more stations per km however and includes a massive MSF.

Needed those numbers. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[allengeorge]

Let's get the facts straight. According to the recent Audit, the construction cost of the Hurontario LRT is budgeted for $1.76B for 18km. Working out to be $97.8M/km. That was supposedly over budget.

This is something I'm repeatedly confused about: construction cost numbers seem to be all over the place and there seems to be no standard for them. Why is that?

 

[afransen]

Let's get the facts straight. According to the recent Audit, the construction cost of the Hurontario LRT is budgeted for $1.76B for 18km. Working out to be $97.8M/km. That was supposedly over budget.

Where does the other $150M/km go? The bandied about cost of HuLRT is around $5B.

 

[TRONto]

Where does the other $150M/km go? The bandied about cost of HuLRT is around $5B.

From the report:
"The original Treasury Board-approved budget in August 2016 was $5 billion, which included capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, financing costs and other non-construction costs over a 30-year period. The initial budget was for the 20-kilometre line with 22 stops using a P3 contract. We noted that the construction cost in this $5-billion budget was $1.37 billion."

"In August 2019, the Treasury Board approved a total final project budget of $5.6 billion, based on the winning bid. This was an increase of 12% or $600 million more than the $5 billion originally approved. We also noted that the construction cost in this final approved budget was increased to $1.76 billion."

The other $150m/km would be filed under >>> capital costs (non-direct), operating and maintenance costs, financing costs and other non-construction costs over a 30-year period

 

[Steve X]

Where does the other $150M/km go? The bandied about cost of HuLRT is around $5B.

The 30 year lifecycle costs and operation cost do not fall under cost per kilometers. Ontario is being special by including these cost into the price tag. No one really knows the real operation cost 30 years down the road. Nor will they pay the entire $5B when the line opens. The price tags between projects aren't even comparable since the Finch West LRT doesn't include driver cost while the HuLRT does. Since that is a TTC problem and thus ignored.

That's like buying a car and saying that a Honda Civic cost $100k. Which includes the car itself, the 10 years of gas that you planned to use, the oil changes, maintenance cost and parts replacement needed beyond 5 years old.