Del Duca Transit Plan

[steveintoronto]

I wonder if the John-Tory-as-Liberal-leader idea would work out.

It always seems to work out that after some Ford spiciness (and consequent indigestion), Torontonians came to appreciate the blandness of a slice of milquetoast.

He's not my choice, but he is for many, a majority of those polled to run for the OntLibs! As much as he's not my kinda leader, he is a competent and well composed choice.

If the Libs could talk him into joining, he'd be a sure dunk winner. He also has the demeanour to carry a coalition if need be.

 

[Neutrino]

That being said, everyone predicting a major fall for Ford is projecting their own desires onto the situation. They overestimate Ford's lack of appeal. He does enjoy a fair bit of support; plus distaste for the liberals runs very deep as Paul pointed out. And incumbent's advantage. I think we can expect a PC minority next election.

 

[steveintoronto]

That being said, everyone predicting a major fall for Ford is projecting their own desires onto the situation. They overestimate Ford's lack of appeal. He does enjoy a fair bit of support; plus distaste for the liberals runs very deep as Paul pointed out. And incumbent's advantage. I think we can expect a PC minority next election.

Have you seen the polls?

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Three-quarters of Ontarians think Doug Ford on 'wrong track,' poll ...

https://www.thestar.com › Politics › Provincial Politics
3 days ago - Three out of four Ontarians think Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives are on the “wrong track” due in part to unpopular budget cuts ...
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21 hours ago - Support for the Progressive Conservatives has “collapsed,” according to a new poll, while Ontario Premier Doug Ford is now less popular than Kathleen Wynne at the end of her time as Premier. ... In contrast, the PC’s won a majority government during the June 2018 election with 40.5 ...
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4 hours ago - Doug Ford Is Less Popular Than Kathleen Wynne Was When She Lost Power, PollSuggests. The premier's PC party would come in third place ...
New poll shows Doug Ford's support is falling - iHeartRadio

www.iheartradio.ca/.../news/new-poll-shows-doug-ford-s-support-is-falling-1.856011...
A new poll conducted by Campaign Research has found the Ford Conservatives are falling in popularity.
[...]

Google search results for "Doug Ford polls"

 

[Neutrino]

Google the shy Tory phenomenon. Plus the polls didn't accurately predict Trump's election. And we can cite Trump here because there are notable parallels between the two situations.

 

[steveintoronto]

Polls are not infallible, in fact they're less reliable than they ever have been. But if the weather forecast is for a hurricane or tornado the next day...I'd say give it the benefit of doubt.

Trump's polls are abysmal:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Trump won't get re-elected. Neither will Ford.

Plus the polls didn't accurately predict Trump's election.

They did! For the popular vote. The electoral college skewered the application of those votes though.

 

[Neutrino]

Trump will almost certainly be re-elected. I don't have the reference on hand, but if I recall correctly, incumbent presidents almost always win. Incumbent's advantage is even stronger in the U.S. and a strong economy always helps the sitting president get re-elected. Plus, most Dem candidates are woeful and do not connect well with the electorate. Or at least, the ones they need to win over in purple states.

 

[lenaitch]

Incumbency is huge in the US system, notwithstanding his less than stellar numbers. There's always time to declare war on somebody - that usually works.
I think the Democrat candidates need to be pared down a bit before the pundits can parse the tea leaves on their chances. It seems eating your own young has become part of their system.

 

[Hopkins123]

That being said, everyone predicting a major fall for Ford is projecting their own desires onto the situation. They overestimate Ford's lack of appeal. He does enjoy a fair bit of support; plus distaste for the liberals runs very deep as Paul pointed out. And incumbent's advantage. I think we can expect a PC minority next election.

Finally, a voice of reason. Ford is likely far more popular than these "polls" seem to be reflecting and that's not going to change any time soon. This just seems to be the rumblings of a vocal and mobilized minority thinking that they speak for everyone. Liberals must be scared shitless that outside of the cities of Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay proper they have almost no support throughout the entire province. We mustn't forget how we got to this point, 15 long arduous years of Liberals' lying, cheating and stealing from Peter to give to Tom.

I encourage Del Duca to run though. Maybe with him we can turn that caravan into a two-seat bicycle!

 

[steveintoronto]

This just seems to be the rumblings of a vocal and mobilized minority thinking that they speak for everyone.

I suggest you examine the polls. You can think what you want, that's your right, and 'the only poll that really counts is an election' but anyone thinking Ford is popular lives in a dream, and the polls reflect that.

Here's the latest poll to show Ford's dismal standing:

May 23, 2019 | Mainstreet Research | Featured,Ontario, Public Polling
23 May 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have slid to third, Premier Doug Ford’s favourability ratings have now fallen below those of Kathleen Wynne’s at the end of her tenure, while Liberal voters say that John Tory is their most preferred choice to lead the Ontario Liberal Party.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest Ontario survey. The poll surveyed 996 Ontarians between May 21st to 22nd, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“More and more Ontarians are turning away from Doug Ford as his support is collapsing,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “We have never seen an imcumbent premier reach these depths in popular opinion with barely a year into his mandate.”
Premier Ford has a net favourability rating of -53.5%. By comparison, Wynne’s net favourability rating stood at -35.3% on April 30th, 2018. NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s net rating is +20.3%, interim Liberal leader John Fraser’s net rating is +7.4%, while Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net rating of +11.4%.
[...]

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/f...e-liberal-voters-prefer-tory-as-their-leader/

For The People! (But which ones? His buddies?)

 

[steveintoronto]

I don't have the reference on hand, but if I recall correctly, incumbent presidents almost always win.

Usually, but not "almost always" by any means:

There have been nearly a dozen one term presidents who ran for second terms but were denied by voters, but only three one term presidents since World War II. The most recent one term president who lost his re-election bid was George H.W. Bush, a Republican who lost to Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992.

List of One-Term U.S. Presidents - ThoughtCo
Not one of those re-elected had polls as dismal as Trump's. Or pending action from Congress.

 

[Hopkins123]

I suggest you examine the polls. You can think what you want, that's your right, and 'the only poll that really counts is an election' but anyone thinking Ford is popular lives in a dream, and the polls reflect that.

Ford could lose the popular vote overall but still lead the PCs into winning the most seats considering the seat distribution. I don't think Ford has any disillusions about being the leader long term regardless. Just like Mike Harris did, he will go in and do all the dirty but (in fiscal conservatives view) necessary work and then pass things on to someone else. You may not respect him for it but the PCs would've looked seriously weak and ineffectual as high hell to their fans had they not gone this route.

 

[syn]

That being said, everyone predicting a major fall for Ford is projecting their own desires onto the situation. They overestimate Ford's lack of appeal. He does enjoy a fair bit of support; plus distaste for the liberals runs very deep as Paul pointed out. And incumbent's advantage. I think we can expect a PC minority next election.

True.

Polls were awful for his brother, but had he not gotten sick he may have won a 2nd term.

By the next election he'll be able be able to use the Scarborough Subway again as a election ploy.

 

[Hopkins123]

Usually, but not "almost always" by any means:

List of One-Term U.S. Presidents - ThoughtCo
Not one of those re-elected had polls as dismal as Trump's. Or pending action from Congress.

George HW Bush only lost to Clinton because third party Ross Perot gobbled up 20% of his base support. Much like how the NDP siphons votes away from our two major parties.

 

[steveintoronto]

George HW Bush only lost to Clinton because third party Ross Perot gobbled up 20% of his base support. Much like how the NDP siphons votes away from our two major parties.

For some odd reason, presidential candidates don't form coalitions.

You may not respect him for it but the PCs would've looked seriously weak and ineffectual as high hell to their fans had they not gone this route.

You haven't consulted the poll results!
The majority of Conservatives polled (voters who identify themselves as Con) give him a failing grade, and many indicate that they won't vote Con next time.

So once again, run Ford! Yesssirrree...and the Libs run Il Duce, so that a coalition of Green/NDP will have the highest result, and be asked to form a government. I'm no fan of the Dippers, I find Horwath encumbered by her union roots, let alone her naïveté on certain issues, but compared to the other two declared runners? I say vote Green, but it will be very much in the Dippers' and Greens' favour to have strategic ridings where candidates don't split the coalition vote. Horwath is no Bob Rae, unfortunately.

 

[felix123]

Finally, a voice of reason. Ford is likely far more popular than these "polls" seem to be reflecting and that's not going to change any time soon. This just seems to be the rumblings of a vocal and mobilized minority thinking that they speak for everyone. Liberals must be scared shitless that outside of the cities of Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay proper they have almost no support throughout the entire province. We mustn't forget how we got to this point, 15 long arduous years of Liberals' lying, cheating and stealing from Peter to give to Tom.

I encourage Del Duca to run though. Maybe with him we can turn that caravan into a two-seat bicycle!

What a surprise that "the voice of reason" is simply the voice that echoes your own. The latest 2 polls aren't just showing that the cons are in 3rd place (with a large margin of distance between them and the 1st place libs), but perhaps more importantly that Doug Ford's net approval rating is worse than Kathleen Wynne's was immediately prior to the last election. That sort of unpopularity this early into the term is absolutely hilarious, yet equally predictable.