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Decima: poll suggests Conservative breakthrough

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billonlogan

Guest
Courtesy: Toronto Sun
By STAFF AND CP

Tories on the march
As Liberals ponder new leader and direction, poll suggests Conservative breakthrough



OTTAWA -- A new poll puts Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative minority government within sniffing distance of a majority.

The Decima survey, released yesterday, gives the federal Conservatives a 41% approval rating, while the leaderless Liberals slipped to 26% and the NDP hung in at 19%.

That breakdown, according to Decima Research, puts the Tories within reach of a majority government in the 308-seat House if an election were to be held today.

In the Jan. 23 election, the Conservatives won 36% of the popular vote, while the Liberals took 30%.

Despite the Tories' improvement, the current poll suggests a merger of the Liberal and New Democratic parties could also be an electoral winner.

The Decima poll found that 25% of Canadians believed the two parties should unite.

Voters who supported either of the two parties in last winter's election were even more receptive to the idea: 36% of Liberals favoured a merger and 32% of New Democrats.

Moreover, a Decima analysis of the 2006 election results suggests that had the two parties joined forces during last winter's election, they could have blocked the Conservatives from winning a minority government.

PITCH TO NDPERS

No Liberal leadership contender has so far advocated a merger of the two parties. But several of the perceived frontrunners, including Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae are making a pitch for voters who fled to the NDP in the Jan. 23 election.
Rae, a former NDP premier of Ontario, advocates uniting "progressive" voters while Ignatieff, a rookie Toronto MP, is urging the party to plant its flag firmly on the centre-left of the political spectrum.

The field will tilt a bit more to the left today, when Gerard Kennedy, former Ontario education minister and one-time food bank founder, formally joins the race. Although he is expected to cast himself as a centrist candidate, Kennedy's history of social activism appeals to many left-of-centre Liberals.

DRYDEN TO ENTER

The leftward tilt will become even more pronounced tomorrow when former hockey great Ken Dryden becomes the 10th candidate to enter the race. Dryden is the former social development minister who delivered on the Liberals' decade-old promise to create a national child-care program.

Only one candidate, Toronto-area MP Maurizio Bevilacqua has so far questioned the wisdom of shifting to the left, arguing the Liberals' electoral success has depended on its ability to monopolize the middle ground of Canadian politics.

However, the Decima poll suggests luring voters away from the NDP will be crucial if the Liberals hope to recapture power.

In the last election, Decima found 17% of Canadians voted strategically for a party that was not their first choice, motivated primarily by a desire to defeat the Liberals. More than one-quarter of those strategic voters cast ballots for the NDP.
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I think Layton would make a great leader of the opposition. If I was an NDP voter, I'd never vote Liberal.
 
Is it just me, or do these polls seem to be heavily flawed? If we go by the polling predictions for the past election, one would have thought the Liberals were in for a lop-sided loss. Nevertheless, I find the results somewhat surprising. My original conclusion from this past election was that it was more a punishment vote than it was for a change of social, fiscal, and international policy. If voter preference for the Conservatives has increased since Harper took office then I would say there is cause for concern. The majority of policy changes proposed by the current administration are somewhat intimidating; intimidation by the degree of change that is to be expected, and the similarities it shares with American national and foreign policy. I would have thought support for the Conservatives would have dropped substantially by his proposed controls and changes (media limitations, GST cuts, childcare, etc.) and his callous –and often confrontational – attitude in running a minority government.
 
I think Layton would make a great leader of the opposition. If I was an NDP voter, I'd never vote Liberal.

Ed Broadbent said the pretty much same thing in an op-ed piece this morning. Whoda thunk the two of you would agree?
 
Some general thoughts:
-It is very early for this stuff. We arent having an election any time soon so how the conservatives are doing now is not really that meaningful. What matters is where they are a year or so from now - and as the saying goes 'a week is a long time in politics', so a year is a very long time.

-as to the Lib's veering left, maybe it is my personal bias, but I cant fathom why they would want to continue this when it has been so unsuccesful for them. When Paul Martin was first crowned he had the highest ratings of any PM - and I think it is because he represented a socially centre left but as importantly a fiscally centre-right leader. Then he started spending money like a drunken dipper and not only did is ratings suffer, but by moving left it opened space in the middle for the Conservatives to move into. Remember back when we first loved Martin we also though the Conservatives were scary, ultraconservative zealots - because the only policies left over were the wacko right wing ones (ie opposing gay marriage). Now apparently 40 odd percent of the country is cool with him/them and it is the Liberals who are going to have trouble dislodging the Conservatives from the centre.
 
The NDP is the reason why the Tories are in power, so if you wish to perpetuate this situation then that's a great way to vote.
 
^I suppose, but I would presume that many people are motivated by the idea to vote for something or someone rather than against them just to get another party out of power. I really like my MP, and I would not want to cast a ballot against him just to see another party in power. Fortunately I support the party he belongs to.
 
Agreed. I guess what frustrates me is that we had a good set-up under the Lib/NDP "coalition" (although I'm hesitant to use that word since they really only cooperated on the last Liberal budget) and yet the NDP was adamant that the Libs should fall, and what has it really accomplished? They seem to persistently go after the Libs and give the Tories less flak, which is all part and parcel of politics, I suppose, but frustrating nonetheless.
I'll take the Paul Martin gov't any day over what we have now.
 
Well, considering that Iggy wants to take the LPC to the left, and Rae comes from the left, and Dione wants to be an enviromentalist, and Kennedy is a feed the poor socialist, I'd say this party is firmly seeking either to join with the NDP, or to replace the NDP as Canada's left'ish voice.
 
If thinking that no family in one of the world's richest nations should ever go without food makes one a socialist, then sign me up for the NDP.

It's absurd to suggest that wanting to feed the poor makes Kennedy some kind of fringe candidate.
 
It's absurd to suggest that wanting to feed the poor makes Kennedy some kind of fringe candidate.
Okay, I take that back. I'm not aware of much of Kennedy's history beyond his Ontario ministry and food bank involvement.
 
Kennedy has a really good reputation. His main negative point is that he is Ontarian. Such is this confederation... At least he can play up his upbringing outside Ontario...
 
Okay, I take that back. I'm not aware of much of Kennedy's history beyond his Ontario ministry and food bank involvement.

Typical. The less one knows, the louder one screams the few things he knows.:rolleyes
 

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