nfitz
Superstar
Strange? That he doesn't have exact numbers for a line item off the top of his head, that come from a document not yet completed? He ballparked it to $75 million - isn't that good enough?
The media seems to be muckraking.
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The media seems to be muckraking.
datamouse
Active Member
But he also said "No, you'd not be able to see it" which would suggest it's being obfuscated somehow in the numbers. That's what I find strange.
nfitz
Superstar
Do you see that level of detail in anything that's been released yet? That always comes later - why should this year be any different?
If he was obfuscating he wouldn't have a) given the ballpark and b) would have waved his hands and said they are near an agreement, but he can't really give a range until they've got an agreement, so as not to prejudice the negotiations ... or some similar waffle.
salsa
Senior Member
But they also haven't told us where the money will come from to pay the cancellation cost.
datamouse
Active Member
Yeah, that's what I assume but some combination of poor choice of words from the city manager and poor reporting makes the article gives some uncertainty.
Meanwhile I've only seen Steve Munro talk about how they're niw looking as Far East as Markham Rd. for the subway to avoid possibly conflicting with SmartTrack. Hopefully even subway supporters see the folly of missing STC with that route.
nfitz
Superstar
What do you mean? It's in the totals, just not broken out. There's some massive amounts of money in the category of "other" in what's already been released.
Spending is listed. It's not linked against a particular revenue source (other than fees).
Surely expanding the study area for a preliminary study like this has little meaning. And might come out with a sensible idea like designing the line at Danforth/Eglinton to allow a future branch to go along Eglinton, in addition to the one north to STC.
I think people are reading too much into all this stuff. If the recommendation that comes out of the study is to build the subway down Eglinton instead of up McCowan, than that effectively kills the extension, as it's no longer a priority then ... and they go back to what to do with the aging SRT.
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TheTigerMaster
Superstar
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
According to Steve, planners are concerned that SmartTrack will have such a detrimental impact on ridership on the Scarborough Subway, that they're considering moving it nearly 2 km east in the hopes that this line will still be viable.
Assuming a cost of $300 Million per km, moving this subway 1.7 km east will cost the City of $510 Million. This means that Toronto will have to nearly double the city's $600 Million contribution to build this thing. This brings Toronto's total contribution up to $1.11 Billion. This is above Toronto's debt ceiling, so there's no way for Toronto to build this alignment.
Steve also speculates that John Tory is no longer supportive of the project.
If what Steve says is true, I think its more than fair to say that the Scarborough Subway is dead unless the City can get an additional donation from higher levels of government.
nfitz
Superstar
Sure there is. It's 1.7 km from Scarborough Centre to Sheppard. if subway instead goes up Markham to Progress, it's about the same length as the current proposal. Better yet, go north on McCowan, then turn at STC to Centennial. Same length, but serves Centennial instead of McCowan Sheppard.
I don't recommend this ... just saying that you can serve further east at a similar cost, and hit STC.
Obviously an SRT replacement that misses the SRT and STC completely is dead in the water, even if it does make more sense from a subway ridership basis - simply because you've still got the current aging SRT to be dealt with.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Wow. Those are some pretty horrible, but plausible alignments. I sincerely hope that people smarten up so it doesn't have to come to this.
Jumping through all those hoops just so some people can have the pleasure of being on an underground train. Unbelievable.
aquateam
Active Member
There may be hope after all for the "Scarborough Solution" being a branch off of the Stouffville GO REX line along the SRT + Extension ROW. It could also fit within the existing LRT budget.
nfitz
Superstar
The original SRT itself was a horrible alignment. Is running to SRT on McCowan, then running somewhere near Progress with stations at Bellamy, Centennial, and Sheppard that terrible? It's higher density than Sheppard/McCowan and would generate more riders, and serve Centennial. But ultimately it adds an extra 1.5 km and 2 stations to the 7.5 km long project.
Someone remind me how many $hundred million the original extend the existing SRT stations, buy Mark II vehicles, and fix the Ellesemere curve was going to cost? Was it less than $500 million total?
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
I hope that we'll be able to see what ridership they're predicting for the line now.
The official prediction right now is 9,000 pphpd. This is just below the 10,000 pphpd the TTC recommends for subway construction. If I remember correctly, the Spadina extension moves only 7,000. So if usage on SS is now so bad that they're considering lowering it, usage on this extension could be even lower than Spadina.
The official prediction right now is 9,000 pphpd. This is just below the 10,000 pphpd the TTC recommends for subway construction. If I remember correctly, the Spadina extension moves only 7,000. So if usage on SS is now so bad that they're considering lowering it, usage on this extension could be even lower than Spadina.
datamouse
Active Member
I'm not sure where Steve is getting the idea that Tory may stop supporting the subway. I mean it's possible but it'll take some really big change in the project for that to happen. So far the $75m is actually less than the anticipation amount when the subway was approved. Tory will take a beating on the subway while he promotes "sound planning" on SmartTrack but the risk of angering the voters of Scarborough will more than likely keep the subway alive.