Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

The debate around subways is collapsing back into the madness that kept anything much from happening in the last 25 years. Metrolinx was created to put the planning process above the level of parochial shouting and grabbing. But the liberals keep making it clear that they are every.

I 100% agree with this. I think Metrolinx was established to develop The Big Move and the funding plan EXACTLY to put an end to this bullshit where council can change its mind and prioritize and fund projects that aren't priorities. I don't think the subway is necessarily a bad plan but it's certainly not worthy of $ before the DRL and Yonge extensions when an LRT would, if imperfect, still mostly do the job (and arguably be better, but let's put that aside).

It's going ahead now because Stintz and De Baermaker are positioning themselves for 2014 - to the point they are willing to help Ford too - and the Liberals are doing it because of by-elections. We'll see if Ottawa actually blinks on this but if they do, without establishing ongoing funding to support the Big Move, you can just ring the death knell for Metrolinx and it's attempt to take long-term transit planning away from the arena of these political games. Los Angeles will vote to support transit taxes but in Toronto the most you can hope for is your mayor feigning vomitting and then agreeing to a new tax for his personal subway project; a tax that is between 1/4 and 1/10 of what his own city manager says is needed.

Frankly, the whole circus is embarrassing and even die hard supporters of the project should be shaking their heads at how their politicians have handled transit for the last 5 years.

We're on the brink of returning to the era of municipalities pimping their own local priorities over a regional network, of deals being made and remade all the time, of funding coming in politically expedient, piecemeal bursts, instead of asking experts to build a relatively objective plan and creating a "fair" way to pay for it over 25 years. Maybe I was fooling myself we ever left that behind...

 

[Adjei]

I 100% agree with this. I think Metrolinx was established to develop The Big Move and the funding plan EXACTLY to put an end to this bullshit where council can change its mind and prioritize and fund projects that aren't priorities. I don't think the subway is necessarily a bad plan but it's certainly not worthy of $ before the DRL and Yonge extensions when an LRT would, if imperfect, still mostly do the job (and arguably be better, but let's put that aside).

It's going ahead now because Stintz and De Baermaker are positioning themselves for 2014 - to the point they are willing to help Ford too - and the Liberals are doing it because of by-elections. We'll see if Ottawa actually blinks on this but if they do, without establishing ongoing funding to support the Big Move, you can just ring the death knell for Metrolinx and it's attempt to take long-term transit planning away from the arena of these political games. Los Angeles will vote to support transit taxes but in Toronto the most you can hope for is your mayor feigning vomitting and then agreeing to a new tax for his personal subway project; a tax that is between 1/4 and 1/10 of what his own city manager says is needed.

Frankly, the whole circus is embarrassing and even die hard supporters of the project should be shaking their heads at how their politicians have handled transit for the last 5 years.

We're on the brink of returning to the era of municipalities pimping their own local priorities over a regional network, of deals being made and remade all the time, of funding coming in politically expedient, piecemeal bursts, instead of asking experts to build a relatively objective plan and creating a "fair" way to pay for it over 25 years. Maybe I was fooling myself we ever left that behind...

That's what you get when you let politicians meddle in transit affairs, they are clueless and the only thing they are concerned about is getting elected and they will propose subways from Toronto to Sudbury if it means they will get the votes they want. We have been held hostage as a region because of clueless politicians who hinder any progress we try to make on the transit agenda. They should leave the transit planning to the experts and the only thing they should be involved in is how to get funding from projects. Metrolinx can't really do anything about this because the politicians control the access to money needed to fund and transit and without money nothing gets done. We will just keep doing the same clueless transit planning we have been doing for the past 40 years and nothing will get built.

 

[gweed123]

I 100% agree with this. I think Metrolinx was established to develop The Big Move and the funding plan EXACTLY to put an end to this bullshit where council can change its mind and prioritize and fund projects that aren't priorities. I don't think the subway is necessarily a bad plan but it's certainly not worthy of $ before the DRL and Yonge extensions when an LRT would, if imperfect, still mostly do the job (and arguably be better, but let's put that aside).

It's going ahead now because Stintz and De Baermaker are positioning themselves for 2014 - to the point they are willing to help Ford too - and the Liberals are doing it because of by-elections. We'll see if Ottawa actually blinks on this but if they do, without establishing ongoing funding to support the Big Move, you can just ring the death knell for Metrolinx and it's attempt to take long-term transit planning away from the arena of these political games. Los Angeles will vote to support transit taxes but in Toronto the most you can hope for is your mayor feigning vomitting and then agreeing to a new tax for his personal subway project; a tax that is between 1/4 and 1/10 of what his own city manager says is needed.

Frankly, the whole circus is embarrassing and even die hard supporters of the project should be shaking their heads at how their politicians have handled transit for the last 5 years.

We're on the brink of returning to the era of municipalities pimping their own local priorities over a regional network, of deals being made and remade all the time, of funding coming in politically expedient, piecemeal bursts, instead of asking experts to build a relatively objective plan and creating a "fair" way to pay for it over 25 years. Maybe I was fooling myself we ever left that behind...

Very good analysis. In my opinion, the best move Metrolinx can do right now is say "we're taking control over everything". And by everything, I mean ALL planning related to Big Move projects. No municipal approvals will be required, sought after, or will have any effect on decisions made about transit projects. The cities had their shot, and they fumbled the ball, picked it up again, ran with it for a bit, fumbled it a bit, and then had 1 of their teammates pick it up and run it back the wrong way for a safety.

They could take it one step further, and announce a 5 year plan to upload all transit agencies in the GTHA to Metrolinx, starting with the smaller agencies like Burlington and Oakville transit. That would be a bold step in the direction of "we're not f**king around anymore".

 

[bobbob911]

I'm pretty much in agreement with this at this point. As much as I am actually in favor of the B/D subway expansion (although not at the current prices being talked about), it sets such a terrible example of political interference that I think will cause much more damage in the long term.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

gweed:

Except Metrolinx is susceptible to political pressure at the provincial level by design and ultimately that's where the current mess comes from. Unless and until the province reform governance and funding model for projects in the region that tension will always exist. Right now, there is absolutely nothing that would prevent the province from waiving the need for Metrolinx projects for municipal approval if they chose to do so.

Besides, if we aren't in a minority government situation I highly doubt we'd be seeing this much backpeddaling.

AoD

 

[gweed123]

gweed:

Except Metrolinx is susceptible to political pressure at the provincial level by design and ultimately that's where the current mess comes from. Unless and until the province reform governance and funding model for projects in the region that tension will always exist. Right now, there is absolutely nothing that would prevent the province from waiving the need for Metrolinx projects for municipal approval if they chose to do so.

Besides, if we aren't in a minority government situation I highly doubt we'd be seeing this much backpeddaling.

AoD

I think the response to pressure is at the provincial level, but the pressure itself started at the municipal level. If it wasn't for Mr. "Subways, Subways, Subways", I really don't think the Province would be doing what they're doing. That whole scenario was born out of the idea that he could actually do something about it. Had Ford been unable to cancel Transit City his 1st day in office (technically he wasn't able to unilaterally cancel it anyway, but that didn't seem to matter), I don't really think the last 3 years would have played out anywhere close to the way it did.

Just to clarify the point about Ford: I know he couldn't unilaterally proclaim Transit City dead, but he could have gone to council who would have proclaimed it dead. That's the core of my argument. That council shouldn't even have a say in it, because they've shown themselves to be clearly incapable of dealing with matters like that.

Has Metrolinx' response to all of this been exemplary? Of course not. But the political shitstorm snowball was set in motion at the municipal level, and now it's too big and too close to an election for anyone to stop without some serious political consequences.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

gweed123:

I think whether council said it is dead or not ultimately have very little relevance in the power dynamic between his worship and the provincial government, and the reluctance of said government to tell him off in no uncertain terms (it is money collected at our level of government and we will spend it however we want to, and if you said one more word, we will cut off funding to you in other areas) that caused this current round of trouble.

At this point, there is probably more political points gained elsewhere by cancelling both projects and lower the deficit - it would at least deny the competition the grounds of fiscal restraint.

AoD

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

I think it's basically put-up-or-shut-up for Metrolinx who, let's not forget, are created by statute and can be wiped out of existence with a majority vote at QP.

What SHOULD happen (IMHO):
Basically what Gweed says. You pass new legislation that empowers them to be outside the political process and able to raise funds via the tools they've already outlined. You upload all RT from Toronto which has shown itself to be utterly incapable of evincing the maturity required to do it themselves. I'm tired of the Transit City shenanigans and the "We don't need the vehicle registration tax, but we do need provincial taxes" hypocrisy, and the games over who owns/runs the Crosstown. Metrolinx has always said they'll own their projects (e.g. Viva BRT) and while Toronto should be exceptional in some regards they should have to earn that.

So, Metrolinx should own it all, run it all, raise the funds for it all, have all riders pay through through Presto2.0 and a fairer, regional fare system they've designed, and Metrolinx should operate totally separate from the provincial goverment and especially from the TTC and Toronto council who, most especially, have ZERO concept of their own needs and even less of the regional system's needs.


It won't be any less democratic than the OMB and hopefully more sensible. At any rate, the idea (politically appointed body making decisions to ensure compliance with provincial legislation) is the same as the OMB and...I generally hate the OMB and argue that municipalities only act like children if you treat them as such, but Toronto has proven that's not the case. They complain they don't have money, so the province gives them taxing powers and they refuse to use the and keep begging the province for money. It's just obscene and it's to the detriment of the entire GTA. And the whole cyclical nature of watching it unfold is just nauseating.

But, none of this will happen.
I expect that York Region will immediately (and rightfully) pounce on Flaherty to get the $3B they need for the Yonge extension. When Scarborough and Yonge are both built without the DRL and Bloor actually collapses into the earth from the sheer physical weight of all the riders pouring into the station at rush hour, Stintz and Ford and De Bareamaker and Murray should be proud of what they've wrought to ensure the taxpayers of Scarborough got the respect they so deserved.

Possibly, I grant you, I'm just being negative and looking at worst-case scenarios

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

The most laughable has got to be raising property tax by .25% and saying that will pay for the subway while "expecting" others to fork over 1.8B

AoD

 

[rbt]

Possibly, I grant you, I'm just being negative and looking at worst-case scenarios

It really depends on the next provincial and municipal election.

If Metrolinx does not get the ability to raise revenues, Toronto is going to be very interesting in 10 years; don't give up your downtown condo.

Municipally, if Metrolinx starts building backbone components then we will need to invest heavily into feeder routes and maintenance. Ford doesn't show much interest in getting people to the subway; he seems to expect them to walk there.

If both turn out positively for transit, then we might come out of this in pretty good shape in 15 years despite getting the ordering completely backward.


This is kinda like gay marriage. It was highly controversial until after it was made legal, then suddenly everybody was in favour of it. If Metrolinx gets taxation abilities (Ford bumping property taxes for subway construction may help this); then it might all work out and be quite popular after it is implemented.

It's a Hail Mary move which has backfired on Toronto a couple of times in the past leading directly to today's congestion problems.

 

[gweed123]

I think it's basically put-up-or-shut-up for Metrolinx who, let's not forget, are created by statute and can be wiped out of existence with a majority vote at QP.

What SHOULD happen (IMHO):
Basically what Gweed says. You pass new legislation that empowers them to be outside the political process and able to raise funds via the tools they've already outlined. You upload all RT from Toronto which has shown itself to be utterly incapable of evincing the maturity required to do it themselves. I'm tired of the Transit City shenanigans and the "We don't need the vehicle registration tax, but we do need provincial taxes" hypocrisy, and the games over who owns/runs the Crosstown. Metrolinx has always said they'll own their projects (e.g. Viva BRT) and while Toronto should be exceptional in some regards they should have to earn that.

So, Metrolinx should own it all, run it all, raise the funds for it all, have all riders pay through through Presto2.0 and a fairer, regional fare system they've designed, and Metrolinx should operate totally separate from the provincial goverment and especially from the TTC and Toronto council who, most especially, have ZERO concept of their own needs and even less of the regional system's needs.


It won't be any less democratic than the OMB and hopefully more sensible. At any rate, the idea (politically appointed body making decisions to ensure compliance with provincial legislation) is the same as the OMB and...I generally hate the OMB and argue that municipalities only act like children if you treat them as such, but Toronto has proven that's not the case. They complain they don't have money, so the province gives them taxing powers and they refuse to use the and keep begging the province for money. It's just obscene and it's to the detriment of the entire GTA. And the whole cyclical nature of watching it unfold is just nauseating.

But, none of this will happen.
I expect that York Region will immediately (and rightfully) pounce on Flaherty to get the $3B they need for the Yonge extension. When Scarborough and Yonge are both built without the DRL and Bloor actually collapses into the earth from the sheer physical weight of all the riders pouring into the station at rush hour, Stintz and Ford and De Bareamaker and Murray should be proud of what they've wrought to ensure the taxpayers of Scarborough got the respect they so deserved.

Possibly, I grant you, I'm just being negative and looking at worst-case scenarios

I like the comparison to the OMB. By and large, the OMB is outside of the political process. Some people like it, some people don't, but by and large it's effective at what it does.

I think the biggest thing Metrolinx can do for itself at this point is get the revenue tools in place so it can operate entirely outside the political process (or as much outside as possible). If the money being spent on Metrolinx projects is being raised solely by Metrolinx, the opportunities for political gerrymandering of the progress go down significantly.

Only point I would disagree with is the RT part. It needs to be all or nothing. Metrolinx can't just take the parts that make money, and leave the local agencies with the surface routes, which are nearly the only routes that require subsidies (with the exception of the Sheppard Subway).

And yes AoD, I do agree that the Province has been quite soft on dealing with council, and Ford in particular.

 

[Eug]

It really depends on the next provincial and municipal election.

If Metrolinx does not get the ability to raise revenues, Toronto is going to be very interesting in 10 years; don't give up your downtown condo.

Municipally, if Metrolinx starts building backbone components then we will need to invest heavily into feeder routes and maintenance. Ford doesn't show much interest in getting people to the subway; he seems to expect them to walk there.

If both turn out positively for transit, then we might come out of this in pretty good shape in 15 years despite getting the ordering completely backward.

Good point.

This is kinda like gay marriage. It was highly controversial until after it was made legal, then suddenly everybody was in favour of it.

I don't remember it this way. Support for gay marriage slowly increased until it was the majority opinion in Canada, and then it got legalized, and then support continued to increase. That's how I remember it, but I could be mistaken.

 

[rbt]

I don't remember it this way. Support for gay marriage slowly increased until it was the majority opinion in Canada, and then it got legalized, and then support continued to increase. That's how I remember it, but I could be mistaken.

Time is a funny thing.

Suddenly in this case is a few years as it took many decades for gay marriage to gain support to become legalized in Canada.


Support for transit taxation in Toronto has been building since Network 2011 was proposed (mid 80's) and it because obvious the province was having difficulties absorbing that cost. I am hopeful that a couple of years after Metrolinx taxation is implemented that it will have wide enough support that even a majority conservative government won't be able to back it out.

 

[Jonny5]

Time is a funny thing.

Suddenly in this case is a few years as it took many decades for gay marriage to gain support to become legalized in Canada.

I think a part of what fools people's memory on the issue is that the vocal opposition to gay marriage went away once it became law. IIRC the Conservatives took one final all or nothing vote on the subject in 2006. They lost they lost vote by a significant margin and it was declared a settled issue. It may now seem like "everyone supports it, but there are still millions who oppose it, however they know that battle is lost, and they have moved on.

 

[BurlOak]

Very good analysis. In my opinion, the best move Metrolinx can do right now is say "we're taking control over everything". And by everything, I mean ALL planning related to Big Move projects. No municipal approvals will be required, sought after, or will have any effect on decisions made about transit projects. The cities had their shot, and they fumbled the ball, picked it up again, ran with it for a bit, fumbled it a bit, and then had 1 of their teammates pick it up and run it back the wrong way for a safety.

Gweed,

I thought you said a while ago that Metrolinx insider's thought the elevated ECLRT connected to the SRT was the best option. Is it the case that political interferance has existed since day 1 and we cannot be sure that the Transit City LRT plan is actually the best one?