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Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

If they are going to cancel the SELRT then are they at least going to extend the Subway to Victoria Park? I'm ready for Finch to be cancelled as well and its funds put to a Sheppard West extension from Yonge to Downsview. Then Mr. Mayor will be re elected again. I really wanted Transit City to happen but the city should have pitched in when the province delayed funding. A network of LRT would be nice but a few stubs of LRT is a disaster even if it would eventually be extended.
 
k10ery said:
That wasn't my point. I meant that it's a lot of money, and there is no way the riders themselves could value the Kennedy transfer that highly. Given the choice, they would take the money, not the subway. So why build the subway? If politicians want to do something for Scarborough, make it a sensible thing that people actually want, be it an LRT system, or new jobs, or parks, or yes even tax cuts.

@drum: Yes the current ridership is low. But both the LRT and subway can serve the future demand, so I don't see what your argument has to do with the choice. Yes, the forecast for subway is somewhat higher, but I don't know how much we can trust that number.

@denfromoakville: Really?
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Whats wrong with a Warden and Islington LRT? I think the demand is there for it.
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
Everyone comes out with bruises SS. Which means the people won.
Now, should we find the money to bring eglinton east and west now?
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Maybe, maybe not.

A 1.1% property tax increase means this project relies heavily on Land Transfer Tax income; which Ford has described as being unreliable (it is unreliable). Ford wants 0.25% per year for 4 years which is a touch less than the recommended 1.1%.

I would guess that going ahead with the subway will make it extremely difficult to do any major capital project elsewhere without new Metrolinx money. Particularly if the city needs to do Bloor/Danforth resignalling on it's own ($450M).


More specifically, Ford's proposal probably kills the additional order for downtown LRTs for capacity expansion ($300M) and will even make placing a bus order over the next few years difficult.

If Toronto real estate slows down, we will find it challenging to find money for Gardiner.
 
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rbt said:
Maybe, maybe not.

A 1.1% property tax increase means this project relies heavily on Land Transfer Tax income; which Ford has described as being unreliable (it is unreliable). Ford wants 0.25% per year for 4 years which is a touch less than the recommended 1.1%.

I would guess that going ahead with the subway will make it extremely difficult to do any major capital project elsewhere without new Metrolinx money. Particularly if the city needs to do Bloor/Danforth resignalling on it's own ($450M).


More specifically, Ford's proposal probably kills the additional order for downtown LRTs for capacity expansion ($300M) and will even make placing a bus order over the next few years difficult.

If Toronto real estate slows down, we will find it challenging to find money for Gardiner.
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True. Which leads to this question: Will people want to change more of the transit plans?
 
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k10ery said:
So the incremental capital cost is now $1.6 billion (escalated). Will that shut people up?

http://t.co/IPHJbCZAel

Edit: shut up the Stintz faction that is! Not the good people on this board, who I hope keep talking about this til 2020.
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The subway option is certainly more expensive.

But the rapidly increasing cost differential raises some questions.

The "reallocation" of $320 million from SRT to Eglinton does not reflect any changes in the project scope or design; it is a purely accounting operation. Either those money are actually needed for Eglinton LRT; then they should have been attributed to Eglinton in the first place, and not hidden in the SRT budget. Or, they are needed for SRT; in that case, they should not be reallocated to Eglinton now.

Besides, how can the station for Eglinton LRT only, without any land acquisition or bus termninal costs involved, cost $320 million? That easily beats the cost of any subway station ever built in Toronto to date. One has to wonder whether Metrolinx is actually looking for an excuse to chip some funds away from the Scarborough project, and use them as a general-purpose reserve fund for Eglinton.

Furthermore, the cost calculations in the said report take into account the cost of keeping SRT working while the subway is being built, but totally ignore the cost of replacement bus service for the duration of SRT shutdown if SRT gets upgraded. That skews the balance against the subway option.

And finally, the statement that ATC control will be needed right away on the BD line if it is extended, is not supported by any numbers or calculations. Actually, if the number of additional riders is only 2,000 pphpd, the new load of the BD line will still be lower than the current load of YUS, which is currently handled (although with some difficulties) without the ATC.
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
Despite my posts I am happy though. Frankly I would like this to go to McCowan and Finch and bring the Finch LRT all the way across town.
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My preference would be to end the subway at McCowan and Sheppard, and feed 3 LRT lines into this terminus: Sheppard LRT (goes through), McCowan LRT (from Hwy 7 to Sheppard), and Finch East LRT (from Yonge to McCowan, then down McCowan to Sheppard together with McCowan LRT).

That way, these 3 LRT lines will be connected.
 
Rainforest said:
My preference would be to end the subway at McCowan and Sheppard, and feed 3 LRT lines into this terminus: Sheppard LRT (goes through), McCowan LRT (from Hwy 7 to Sheppard), and Finch East LRT (from Yonge to McCowan, then down McCowan to Sheppard together with McCowan LRT).

That way, these 3 LRT lines will be connected.
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I like this too.
 
Rainforest said:
And finally, the statement that ATC control will be needed right away on the BD line if it is extended, is not supported by any numbers or calculations. Actually, if the number of additional riders is only 2,000 pphpd, the new load of the BD line will still be lower than the current load of YUS, which is currently handled (although with some difficulties) without the ATC.
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This doesn't really matter. It was the cities problem before and is the cities problem now.

It isn't a new cost, but it is a cost the city needs to have budgeted.
 
Rainforest said:
My preference would be to end the subway at McCowan and Sheppard, and feed 3 LRT lines into this terminus: Sheppard LRT (goes through), McCowan LRT (from Hwy 7 to Sheppard), and Finch East LRT (from Yonge to McCowan, then down McCowan to Sheppard together with McCowan LRT).

That way, these 3 LRT lines will be connected.
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Yup. Coupled with an extension of the STC density cluster further north across the 401 so that the density actually makes sense relative to where the transit is. STC is in the wrong spot. It should have been centred overtop of the Stouffville corridor a few arterials further west.

One point though: I think that 2 of those LRT lines, possibly all 3, would do just fine as BRT lines. Lower the capital cost, but still get the rapid transit link in there.
 
If the BD subway is extended then the Eglinton LRT should stay in the middle of road. Onward to Guildwood! The Kennedy station modification then becomes fairly simple, no?
 
Neil said:
If the BD subway is extended then the Eglinton LRT should stay in the middle of road. Onward to Guildwood! The Kennedy station modification then becomes fairly simple, no?
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Weren't there capacity issues with doing this? I've heard that the reason the SMLRT wasn't connected with the ECLRT was because the trains would be too full once they get to Kennedy from central Scarborough.
 
k10ery said:
Right. For the 40K people who now take the SRT, $2 billion is $50,000 each. That's about the same as family income out there. How many people on the RT wouldn't take $50K, TAX FREE, over a subway extension that saves them a transfer at Kennedy?

Politicians should NOT do transit planning.
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Even better, let's just buy them all cars. A new sub-compact tends to go for about $15k, and would be oh so much cheaper than any public transportation project.

And while I am trying to illustrate a point about how obsessed we are about cost, there are places in the US where this is an actual argument.
 
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