Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[syn]

The short answer is that they can't develop at all (or certainly much slower and at lower density) without the subway. Ergo, they have a financial incentive to get the subway going since it's a pre-requisite for development and making back the money they invested however many years ago in purchasing and assembling the land. I'm not at all suggesting that means they'll build a subway station for Doug Ford or that we are - in any way- like Hong Kong.

I'm merely saying that Yonge/7 is basically your BEST case scenario: undeveloped land, prime corridor, urban growth centre, zoned for high density, contingent on the provision of the rapid transit infrastructure, consolidated ownership, large parcels (also, no real NIMBY's around and willing municipalities)... And even in THAT scenario, I don't think you make much of a dent in the overall project cost and that's as good as it gets. Scarborough has almost none of that. That's why I think it's a shell game.

That's what my point there was.

Mississauga is building quite a few condos without the benefit of a subway.

A financial incentive would be a grant or government subsidy to encourage development. Asking them to drop on $500 million each on subway construction is not a financial incentive - it's a huge burden. That cost is going to be passed along to the buyer, which eliminates the point of doing it in the first place.

I agree with you - you aren't going to make much of a dent in the project cost assuming the best case scenario. For me the 'best case scenario' is also a completely unrealistic scenario - there's just nothing in it for the developer.

 

[crs1026]

While I find none of the recent announcements concerning or surprising...

I would like clarification as to whether the TTC will continue the design which I believe was previously hinted. If thats the case then the Province should have to answer when the design funds for the new stops will be released. Assuming the budget will be around mid March we may see announcements at the time which should conventiently fall before the new design report date

The final financing and upload details can be drawn out over a longer period of time but if the design funds are not granted then we have actual grounds to point blame on this admin for significant delay. As of now there is no real change in direction whatsoever
.

This leads to a question of what organization the Project Team will report to at the Provincial level. Metrolinx? MOT?

I’ve seen a whole lot of public sector reorganization, and it is virtually impossible to make such a big change mid-project without creating inertia in the project. Even if the designers are told “just keep working”, there are all sorts of internal processes that get rejigged. Metrolinx has a pretty overbuilt Design Excellence process .... does the engineering now have to comply with that process? That may mean that all sorts of paperwork has to be created to retroactively certify the design to date, and designers have to learn that new standard. What about any contract designers who have been retained by TTC - does their procurement now have to fall into IO or Provincial procurement processes? Can their terms be extended or modified without triggering a new procurement process?

There is also the small issue of who the employer of the project team will be. If the design team is completely staffed and operated through an external contractor (I’m not sure of the facts here), that’s not so big a deal, but if there are any TTC employees who now will be Provincial employees, there are employment law issues.... and some of those people may prefer to stay with TTC. That kind of issue tends to create discussions at the watercooler, as well as leading to turnover in roles and assignments..... work slows down while people make the transition.

In a perfect world, the Province ought to just treat TTC as the Project Lead , and only the funding stream changes. Any subsequent projects can be commissioned and mobilised by the Province. But for political reasons, I suspect the Province will want to demonstrate that they are now holding the reins. That could end up with some undesired results that affect workflow.

I’m not saying any of that is insurmountable, but very definitely it will lead to lost productivity and delayed design completion.

- Paul

 

[pstogios]

How is expanding the SRT second class?

Because OneCity/cofffey1 said so, along with the others that bought into the Respect Scarborough Delusion invented by a crackhead (Rob Ford).

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I’m resigned to the fact that the problem with Ontario isn’t the politicians, it’s the voters. Over and over again, voters elect politicians that tell voters what they want to hear, and not what they need to hear. We see this over and over and over again, whether the issue be transit, finances or hydro. We did this to ourselves. Not the media, not the politicians, only us.

"We wasted four years under Rob Ford chasing the dream that private sector would build a subway FOR FREE. Then we wasted four years chasing the idea that tax increment financing would build SmartTrack FOR FREE. Now this. We only get transit if we pay for it."

- From Gord Perks, on Twitter: 1085014549940424705

 

[OneCity]

This leads to a question of what organization the Project Team will report to at the Provincial level. Metrolinx? MOT?

I’ve seen a whole lot of public sector reorganization, and it is virtually impossible to make such a big change mid-project without creating inertia in the project. Even if the designers are told “just keep working”, there are all sorts of internal processes that get rejigged. Metrolinx has a pretty overbuilt Design Excellence process .... does the engineering now have to comply with that process? That may mean that all sorts of paperwork has to be created to retroactively certify the design to date, and designers have to learn that new standard. What about any contract designers who have been retained by TTC - does their procurement now have to fall into IO or Provincial procurement processes? Can their terms be extended or modified without triggering a new procurement process?

There is also the small issue of who the employer of the project team will be. If the design team is completely staffed and operated through an external contractor (I’m not sure of the facts here), that’s not so big a deal, but if there are any TTC employees who now will be Provincial employees, there are employment law issues.... and some of those people may prefer to stay with TTC. That kind of issue tends to create discussions at the watercooler, as well as leading to turnover in roles and assignments..... work slows down while people make the transition.

In a perfect world, the Province ought to just treat TTC as the Project Lead , and only the funding stream changes. Any subsequent projects can be commissioned and mobilised by the Province. But for political reasons, I suspect the Province will want to demonstrate that they are now holding the reins. That could end up with some undesired results that affect workflow.

I’m not saying any of that is insurmountable, but very definitely it will lead to lost productivity and delayed design completion.

- Paul

The delay could be heavily minimized if the design management resides with the TTC for current projects with a Provincial voice joining the round table. If this is the case I dont see it is that much of a challenge aside from setting a new schedule based on the changes which are inevitable. DRL would see very minimal
impact. Any other change in oversight or design team would certainly cause significant delay, therefore I wouldn't expect that as the Province has atleast been stating they are working close with the City to keep the projects moving on the current schedule.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/surma-why-were-uploading-the-subway

"We are going to listen to the experts and fulfill the minister’s pledge to the mayor that our government will proceed collaboratively. We’re going to do this while losing no time when it comes to working with the city to advance new subway projects."

 

[TheTigerMaster]

This thread is nearly 14 years old, and nothing is under construction. Just saying...

 

[TheTigerMaster]

In 2017 the Toronto Star pegs a subway at over 200 million(https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...y-linking-the-waterfront-to-union-keenan.html) so I more then doubled it in my estimate. However(https://torontorealtyblog.com/blog/cost-construct-condo-2018/ ) estimates a piece of condo developable land in toronto is worth 200$ a square foot per floor. Eglinton west subway station has a green roof which is 9000 square feet big. If my math is right if instead of a green roof they sold that land as air rights for a 40 floor condo then the grand total would be worth 72 million. So if we had to build eglinton west today at 200million and subtracted the air rights at 72 million then all the tax payers would have to pay in is $128 million. Sounds like a bargain. I may have been wrong with my estimate but I am not wrong that this can easily be paid for by the private sector and or air rights. If that were true then the first ford and or tory would have figured this out already. Someone should check the math though because I may have made a mistake. Sounds better than I imagined

Perhaps some better math:

1. A point of reference for a land/development deal of this scale: In 2016, the LCBO head office lands were sold to a development partnership for $260M.

2. That’s $260M for a site that will yield around 5,000 residential units, a 750,000 square
foot office tower, and 300,000 square feet of commercial space.

3. $260M for a site where you can build 70-storey towers. A site on the waterfront, minutes from Union Station, and that will be connected to downtown by the PATH network.

4. The kind of site that will not only attract end users, but will also be a beacon for investors interested in both long- and short-term rentals.

5. So when you consider the potential windfall from a site atop a subway station in Scarborough, with none of those characteristics, adjust your expectations accordingly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1085004938906951680

 

[syn]

"We wasted four years under Rob Ford chasing the dream that private sector would build a subway FOR FREE. Then we wasted four years chasing the idea that tax increment financing would build SmartTrack FOR FREE. Now this. We only get transit if we pay for it."

- From Gord Perks, on Twitter: 1085014549940424705

There's a possibility that after 12 years of Conservative mayors in office, we'll have no new projects under construction.

Say what you will about Miller, but when he left office there was a subway line under construction, the Eglinton Crosstown about to begin and there were other projects ready to go.

I really hope the current governments can get their acts together.

 

[OneCity]

There's a possibility that after 12 years of Conservative mayors in office, we'll have no new projects under construction.

Say what you will about Miller, but when he left office there was a subway line under construction, the Eglinton Crosstown about to begin and there were other projects ready to go.

I really hope the current governments can get their acts together.

When Miller left office the residents of the City were voting in a rebuttal Mayor to tear up his poorly designed transit scheme for our inner suburbs.

When you read back to the start most believed the BDL would have been extended. During Millers time we were building subway to Vaughan Centre and yet Scarborough Centre was get hacking in on both sides with LRT transfer points and also having vehicles lanes on other lines that were mostly non grade separated.

What could have gone wrong? Now we know.

Unfortunately we wasted all that time which prevented us from reviewing key connections, alignments and grade separation ( on other lines) but atleast now we can move forward with all relevant Politicians in support of the subway. Unfortunate its the most expensive, bu tit will leave the greatest legacy with the stop locations compared to the RT.

A political messenger like Ford doesn't exist without Millers big leadership mistakes

 

[sixrings]

Most of us knew for years that this subway was going to be delayed and expensive to the point it may be cancelled. Some people from The start wanted to tell themselves differently for personal reasons (low self esteem from living in disconnected scarborough) and then believed whatever promise/lie (scarborough will become utopia only if it has a subway stop) the "relevant" politician told them. Thanks Tiger for better math.

 

[BurlOak]

When Miller left office the residents of the City were voting in a rebuttal Mayor to tear up his poorly designed transit scheme for our inner suburbs.

When you read back to the start most believed the BDL would have been extended. During Millers time we were building subway to Vaughan Centre and yet Scarborough Centre was get hacking in on both sides with LRT transfer points and also having vehicles lanes on other lines that were mostly non grade separated.

What could have gone wrong? Now we know.

Unfortunately we wasted all that time which prevented us from reviewing key connections, alignments and grade separation ( on other lines) but atleast now we can move forward with all relevant Politicians in support of the subway. Unfortunate its the most expensive, bu tit will leave the greatest legacy with the stop locations compared to the RT.

A political messenger like Ford doesn't exist without Millers big leadership mistakes

The biggest mistake in the past 10 years was the Transit City plan.
They should have just come up with the next set of priorities instead of planning a distant future streetcar plan. Essentially, you fill out the highest order transit and then fill in the gaps. The priorities should have been.
#1: Spadina extension to Vaughan (since we need provincial money and Sorbara had to satisfy himself first).
#2: Eglinton subway - correct the Harris mistake of cancelling.
#3: Do something about the aging SRT. At the time that would have been converting to newer Mark II trains and extending to Malvern.
#4: Extend B-D subway to Honeydale (427).
#5 Build DRL.

#1, #3 and #4 would already be done.
#2 and #5 would be well under way.
The debate at the time would have been whether Eglinton or DRL should have been TTC style subway or SkyTrain (maybe 80m to 100m long trains) and maybe connecting SRT to Eglinton. The cost is not much different than Transit City.

Now the debate would be
#1: DRL extension to Seneca.
#2: Sheppard East and West Subway extension.
#3: Possible extension of SRT south (if it wasn't connected into the Eglinton) or East (to UTSC).
#4: Possible Finch West SkyTrain.

 

[nfitz]

The biggest mistake in the past 10 years was the Transit City plan.

If that were true, most of it wouldn't still be on the table, and being built - even by the Fords. Do you really think the city wouldn't have been better off if all 8 lines had been constructed and were operating by now, as proposed?

Nothing proposed since has even come close to starting construction - yet alone opening. Amusing that the Ford government is going ahead with the Eglinton and Finch West Transit City lines, but has indefinitely deferred the proposed SmartTrack stations and is going ahead with proposals that will surely only delay construction on Tory's $3.5 billion plan to close Line 3 and build a single new station on Line 2.

 

[sixrings]

Love how the suburbs are jealous of downtowns walkability and easy access to transit (thanks to the legendary network) but insist on living in areas not very walkable (culdesacs/detached houses) and vote out their own version of the legendary network (Transit City). Be honest.. when you bought that house with a two car garage with a drive way for another two cars you had little intention of ever walking or taking transit. In fact the only thing you care about transit is that it doesn't impede your single occupied vehicle.

 

[zmonkey]

The biggest mistake in the past 10 years was the Transit City plan.
They should have just come up with the next set of priorities instead of planning a distant future streetcar plan. Essentially, you fill out the highest order transit and then fill in the gaps. The priorities should have been.
#1: Spadina extension to Vaughan (since we need provincial money and Sorbara had to satisfy himself first).
#2: Eglinton subway - correct the Harris mistake of cancelling.
#3: Do something about the aging SRT. At the time that would have been converting to newer Mark II trains and extending to Malvern.
#4: Extend B-D subway to Honeydale (427).
#5 Build DRL.

#1, #3 and #4 would already be done.
#2 and #5 would be well under way.
The debate at the time would have been whether Eglinton or DRL should have been TTC style subway or SkyTrain (maybe 80m to 100m long trains) and maybe connecting SRT to Eglinton. The cost is not much different than Transit City.

Now the debate would be
#1: DRL extension to Seneca.
#2: Sheppard East and West Subway extension.
#3: Possible extension of SRT south (if it wasn't connected into the Eglinton) or East (to UTSC).
#4: Possible Finch West SkyTrain.

One issue with this is some of these were not needed. The Eglington line for example should have never been approved. At the time the experts wanted a dedicated bus line that could be converted to an LRT. Politics brought us the original Eglington Subway. Even today an LRT is sufficient for demand loads. Even in the 90's the DRL was number one priority to the experts, but the NDP were against that, and Harris didn't want to spend money after them. Liberals pushed it 20 years down the line, and no Toronto mayor has pushed for it.

Extending the B-D line - this has been voted on what 5 times by city council and 5 times they rejected it. City clearly doesn't want it. Why? Not sure but again, politics comes to play here.

Priorities are different if you compare people wants, politician wants vs expert wants. The reason we are in the mess is the three are just different.

 

[sixrings]

The other problem is no one wants to fund it. The city can vote subways subways subways all they want. If the province and the feds don't agree nothing gets built. As long as the city relies so much on others things will move slowly. When the province and feds deferred payment on the LRTS the city would have been smart to pitch in their own money and have it start on time. Now we have a more expensive plan with a government who wants to cut cut cut and a federal government about to go through an election.