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Condo boom now a bust
- Thread starter CharmAlarm
- Start date
grey
Senior Member
These two economists assume that investors will not change their behaviour and hold on to units longer in order to rent them out, which I think is not a realistic assumption on their part.
Yesterday they were predicting a severe shortage of rental units for the foreseeable future in downtown Toronto.
Edit: upon further investigation, these guys are a joke. Tal has been talking about a 5% increase in the real estate market for 2008 since back in July.
Yesterday they were predicting a severe shortage of rental units for the foreseeable future in downtown Toronto.
Edit: upon further investigation, these guys are a joke. Tal has been talking about a 5% increase in the real estate market for 2008 since back in July.
Last edited:
Alvar
Active Member
And, Oh! What a time we had. Nothing goes up forever, despite what some realtors would have lead us to believe. Amusing how the phrase 'more balanced market' is being used these days. Hmmmm. Before it was one had to buy, or they would 'miss the boat'. Guess what? The boat has returned. And, it looks like it may have docked for awhile.
cdr108
Senior Member
Forget the boat, the tides are coming fast and furious.
The only thing that may calm it depends on how much more builders put on the market that is already saturated.
If projects that don't have ACTUAL 60% sold out and those that are about to be brought to market, both get canned, then TO will be in a better situation; and not make a bad situation even worse.
The Condo Observer
Active Member
There is just so much speculation out there...just last week two articles were published predicting the opposite of this article, in terms of the rental market.
I say do not believe any hype. The market is correcting, the economy is floundering, and none - not even the so called experts - really know where this is all heading.
I say do not believe any hype. The market is correcting, the economy is floundering, and none - not even the so called experts - really know where this is all heading.
Granny
Active Member
I posted this one back in Sept./07..titled..
'Don't step in the Elephant Crap'
For those of you that have been waiting and saving their money..keep waiting and keep saving.. your time is getting closer.
"When you see the parade, then you know the party is almost over."
There have been a number of variations on this old quote, but history never fails to repeat itself. It's about to again.
The lineup of anxious pigeons clutching their cheques and clawing their way in the front door for an opportunity to give someone, anyone, a lot of their money, made me think of this old line. Sadly its about to come true again.
The lights on this party are starting to flicker.
To the younger potential home buyers out there who are feeling that maybe they are missing this parade, I have some advise for you. You did miss it. But don't worry. It's heading over a cliff. Believe me, there will be some choice bargains to choose from in the aftermath within the next couple years. Bide your time. Save your money. Buy location. Above all buy value. Ignore the "It's the end of the world as we know it and this condo market will never recover again" clowns. In other words, learn the the differance between investing and speculating.
As to you "Investors" who bought in to 1 Bloor, I truly wish you the best of luck. I mean that. But ask yourself this. Did you do your due diligence on this? Did you weigh the upside potential against the downside risk, or did you buy in because everybody else was buying in and told you what a great deal this was??
I have invested in many opportunities over the years and happily I have done well. I've had some real bloopers though, particularly when I was younger. I learned from some expensive errors.
Personal opinion only: If I had money in this one, I would be sweating.
'Don't step in the Elephant Crap'
For those of you that have been waiting and saving their money..keep waiting and keep saving.. your time is getting closer.
"When you see the parade, then you know the party is almost over."
There have been a number of variations on this old quote, but history never fails to repeat itself. It's about to again.
The lineup of anxious pigeons clutching their cheques and clawing their way in the front door for an opportunity to give someone, anyone, a lot of their money, made me think of this old line. Sadly its about to come true again.
The lights on this party are starting to flicker.
To the younger potential home buyers out there who are feeling that maybe they are missing this parade, I have some advise for you. You did miss it. But don't worry. It's heading over a cliff. Believe me, there will be some choice bargains to choose from in the aftermath within the next couple years. Bide your time. Save your money. Buy location. Above all buy value. Ignore the "It's the end of the world as we know it and this condo market will never recover again" clowns. In other words, learn the the differance between investing and speculating.
As to you "Investors" who bought in to 1 Bloor, I truly wish you the best of luck. I mean that. But ask yourself this. Did you do your due diligence on this? Did you weigh the upside potential against the downside risk, or did you buy in because everybody else was buying in and told you what a great deal this was??
I have invested in many opportunities over the years and happily I have done well. I've had some real bloopers though, particularly when I was younger. I learned from some expensive errors.
Personal opinion only: If I had money in this one, I would be sweating.
boojiking
Banned
Yes keep saving and wait
Wait and hold on to you money for another 10 years like you did for the last 10 years.There is no boat. It doesnt matter when you buy as long as you buy.
Wait and hold on to you money for another 10 years like you did for the last 10 years.There is no boat. It doesnt matter when you buy as long as you buy.
MBS-Guru
Active Member
It's highly unlikely that developers will cancel a project. They may delay it but they won't cancel it unless it's a last resort. Do you know how much money they will lose by cancelling the project?. All the marketing, consultations fees, lawyer fees, sales office etc. they would be better off continuing sales until they can ride out the recession. It's better too because construction costs are dropping like a rock in the past few months.
Alvar
Active Member
But, with the gloomy economic outlook, and job lossses mounting daily, WHO is buying.....?
jb007
New Member
interesting article in the FP today. Not tied to TO but the market in vancovuer:
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1181254
Vancouver has always appeared extremely overvalued so this drop doesnt come as a large suprise. Do yout hink something liek this can happen in TO?
I always found it strange how TO has so many condos in development. Im surprised the market there hasnt crashed 20%+ yet. What are your thoughts?
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1181254
Vancouver has always appeared extremely overvalued so this drop doesnt come as a large suprise. Do yout hink something liek this can happen in TO?
I always found it strange how TO has so many condos in development. Im surprised the market there hasnt crashed 20%+ yet. What are your thoughts?
cdr108
Senior Member
I don't know Vancouver RE prices so couldn't tell you if they are 'real' discounts, or just gimmicks of discount on further inflated prices as some of the comments in the article stated.
There hasn't been much similar 'promotions' in TO except I did see one from Freed which was selling select units at ~$400 PSF from his pre-completion condo inventory; and a single-family homebuilder sell units at 400/401 for 15% off his list prices.
I believe we will see similar marketing from developers who have excess COMPLETED CONSTRUCTION inventory in the future (summer 2009) if they have high carrying costs, etc.
Can anyone chime in on what projects they know of with tentative completion dates in 2009?
There hasn't been much similar 'promotions' in TO except I did see one from Freed which was selling select units at ~$400 PSF from his pre-completion condo inventory; and a single-family homebuilder sell units at 400/401 for 15% off his list prices.
I believe we will see similar marketing from developers who have excess COMPLETED CONSTRUCTION inventory in the future (summer 2009) if they have high carrying costs, etc.
Can anyone chime in on what projects they know of with tentative completion dates in 2009?
MikeMang
Active Member
The interesting thing about that Freed promotion is he did it on all of his buildings EXCEPT 550 Wellington, which seems to be the only one with a shot of getting done in 2009. I think it was the same % sold as 75 Portland at that point too (which was included on the sale). I would have that he'd be putting the one closest to occupancy on sale first?!
kdub333
New Member
freed sale
I noticed this too. First of all, i was very surprised there was a sale on new condos...on KING STREET WEST!!!
I thought the reason he left out 550 was because 550 was selling fine on its own and he wasn't worried that the leftover units would go unsold very long after the building went up.
He was also selling some units in the completed Adelaide/Morrison building in this promotion.
I noticed this too. First of all, i was very surprised there was a sale on new condos...on KING STREET WEST!!!
I thought the reason he left out 550 was because 550 was selling fine on its own and he wasn't worried that the leftover units would go unsold very long after the building went up.
He was also selling some units in the completed Adelaide/Morrison building in this promotion.
TrickyRicky
Senior Member
Why even consider buying a condo moving forward? You will have all the choice in the world of units to rent and owners literally begging you to occupy there brand spanking new units.