Candidates and their subway plans... The Star tells you which one is more credible

[nfitz]

Do those original costs include such fixed cost items like a car house and vehicles to run on the line?

I think it's quite clear, that the original cost estimate didn't account for LRT in subway tunnels, cost pretty much the same as a subway.

Also 25% for escalation? Over 10 years? That's really low ... inflation for this type of work has been running between 6% and 10% each year.

 

[Fresh Start]

Excuse me for being human. Actually, Thomson is hard to spell as it's an atypical spelling. Just like Phillips is hard to spell because you can’t tell if it’s one L or two. The P in Thompson is typically abridged as “mps” isn’t a typical letter combination in English, unless you are putting a distinct stress on the P.

You're not alone. I've heard people mispronounce and media misspell practically all the major mayoral candidates' names at one time or another except for the monosyllablic, easy to comprehend Rob Ford.

There is a difference between expecting immediate and complete response and expecting any response after 6 months. She published her numbers in January; it is now June.
Again you are saying 10-15%. I suggest that her numbers are off by more than 50% with her $5 toll. Can you please illustrate where this ‘low’ margin of error is arising from?

I agree, it's been close to six months. How come her website and platform mandates not been updated for some time now? I still think she has the best transportation platform as far as funding sources go (transit bonds + rush hour road tolls + P3s + gov't funding) even if the collective amount of revenue generated by the first two proposals won't be high enough to do much. And while I still fervently believe that the TTC/Metrolinx is hyperinflating projected construction costs well beyond the rate of inflation; it will take a lot more than sounding like a one-trick pony at every mayoral debate for her to be taken more seriously by either the cash-strapped populists or the socialist bourgeoisie.

 

[gweed123]

You're not alone. I've heard people mispronounce and media misspell practically all the major mayoral candidates' names at one time or another except for the monosyllablic, easy to comprehend Rob Ford.

If this were South Carolina, he'd already have the Democratic nomination for Senator right now! In fact, maybe he should run there instead, he would fit in quite well...

 

[rbt]

TThe cost escalation is enormous indeed. Eglinton alone was originally quoted at 2.2 Billion for 30 km (73 million / km), now it is 6.065 Billion for 20 km (303 million / km).

In defence of the Eglinton estimate, it wasn't to be built to subway spec originally and now it is. Making it easily upgradeable to 500' train length and loads did cause some increase to the price (I won't speculate as to how much).

Also, if I recall correctly the tunnelled portion is quite a bit longer than was originally theorized to be necessary. Frankly, I think we should have costed Eglinton as a fully surface route so we know what those two lanes of traffic are costing us even if there was no intention to build it that way.

 

[nfitz]

Frankly, I think we should have costed Eglinton as a fully surface route so we know what those two lanes of traffic are costing us even if there was no intention to build it that way.

That's easy enough to figure out ... if you go through the current cost estimates for the LRT lines, then the surface segments seem to come in around $70-million, plus or minus. If you back that out of the Eglinton estimate, the tunnelled portion is coming in at about $300 million, plus or minus. So tunnelling, instead of surface is costing about $230 million per kilometre. Or adding about $2.5 billion for the 11 km for the project. So if we had gone surface for Eglinton, we could have also constructed the Jane and Don Mills LRT for the same money.

That being said ... I don't think surface for Eglinton is feasible. It is narrow; there are frequent traffic lights and intersections. It would always be a huge compromise ... and they'd likely be stuck at 15 km/hr ... 40 minutes to travel from Don Mills Road to Jane, instead of 20 minutes. TTC has envisioned the centre of an Eglinton line as being tunelled since the 1960s; there really isn't another choice.

If nothing else, we should take our hats off to both the City and Provincial governments for finally biting the bullet and building this. If nothing else gets built, the Eglinton line is a huge step forward. But we shouldn't forget how much extra that tunnel is costing us.

 

[Rainforest]

Also 25% for escalation? Over 10 years? That's really low ... inflation for this type of work has been running between 6% and 10% each year.

I actually counted 33% escalation, not 25%. 225 is 300 minus 25%, but 300 is 225 plus 33%.

Furthermore, over 10 years is time till the project completes; but most of expenses will be incurred well before that.

 

[nfitz]

I actually counted 33% escalation, not 25%. 225 is 300 minus 25%, but 300 is 225 plus 33%

Even that's still low. It shouldn't all be escalated 10 years, but look at the cash flow - it doesn't peak for over 5 years. If you take the weighted mean for Eglinton, it's 6.3 years. So a 33% escalation only gives an annual inflation rate of 4.7%. Looking at the MTO tender price index for the 5 most recent complete years, there wasn't an annual increase that low from 2004 to 2009, with the increases ranging from 5.1% to 12.3% (though 2009-2010 is certainly looking to be lower!).

 

[kEiThZ]

Do those original costs include such fixed cost items like a car house and vehicles to run on the line?

I'm guessing they weren't in the first number but are in the second.

If they didn't include those costs than they were either incompetent or being less than honest and far more intentionally deceptive in an effort to paint subway expansion as unaffordable and LRT as super feasible.

What other explanation can there be for supposed professionals forgetting something as basic as a car house and vehicles?

What bothers me about how the whole TC saga has evolved is exactly this kind of deception. Just imagine if the TC price tag had first been announced as $12 billion. Doesn't anybody on here believe the debate would have been markedly different?

How is it acceptable to use significantly higher fidelity numbers to slam subway expansion as being unaffordable, yet say that LRT is better and more affordable/cost efficient/cost effective while using costs that have already doubled, and still don't have the same amount of rigour as the historical data we have for subway construction in this city? I want to see a fairer debate on this front with fairer numbers.

Whatever the amount....5, 8, 10, 12, 15 billion. Shouldn't we be debating over how that is best spent, rather than simply slamming one mode and blowing all that money on the trend du jour?

...ugggh....maybe I'm just jaded because as a Scarborough resident, the last time around this kind of talk stuck us with the SRT. Now it seems to the same people are peddling LRTs. These kind of sales tactics remind me of Direct Energy sales tactics.

 

[SimonP]

The National Post quizzes Ford on his Transit Plans:

Your rivals also criticize you for not putting forward a credible plan for transit expansion. Are you planning to build subways?
Ford: Sure I’m going to build subways. If we get federal and provincial money, great, but I’m not going to wait on that. We’re going to use the private sector, the developers who want to develop the air rights. So I’m going to sit down with the business people that I know how to deal with my expertise in business to get these subways built.

Have you costed out what the air rights are worth?
Ford: You’re going to have give them the air rights, and then you’re going to have to sit down, negotiate deals that they build the subways and you let them develop the air rights above the subways, either be it commercial buildings, apartment buildings, condos, whatever it may be. That’s something you’re going to have to negotiate with them. My transit plan will be coming shortly and you will be seeing it in hard copy. I’m focusing on spending right now, that’s the number one issue. Right now my No. 1 issue is trying to get the money back for Kyle Rae’s party. People are very upset.

 

[kEiThZ]

Guess that settles it. No real subway expansion for Ford. I really can't see anybody trading a subway for air rights. We aren't New York or Tokyo.

Anyway, let's see what the actual plan is.

 

[nfitz]

I fail to see how these air rights work. If you have to buy the land to build the subway, then how can you fund the subway by selling the rights that were presumably included in the original purpose.

Am I missing something? Perhaps he means another type of air right? Perhaps he's going to generate electricity from all the hot air he generates, and that will fund it?

 

[GraphicMatt]

Ford's currently spending his $97,000/year councillor salary by focusing on his number one priority of getting a little more than $10,000 repaid to the city.

 

[syn]

I fail to see how these air rights work. If you have to buy the land to build the subway, then how can you fund the subway by selling the rights that were presumably included in the original purpose.

Am I missing something? Perhaps he means another type of air right? Perhaps he's going to generate electricity from all the hot air he generates, and that will fund it?

I don't think they'd have to purchase the land. The developer gets development rights in exchange for funding the subway construction. I'm pretty sure it would involve just partial funding. Assuming the government chips in for the rest it could possibly work.

 

[Asterix]

I don't think they'd have to purchase the land. The developer gets development rights in exchange for funding the subway construction. I'm pretty sure it would involve just partial funding. Assuming the government chips in for the rest it could possibly work.

How do you explain it working in the real world?

Let's look at Eglinton for example, since many seem to think that should be a subway.

The only land I can think of that the TTC owns along that stretch is the abandoned Eglinton bus bays, but there is already a proposal for development of that site well underway.

Presumably there would be a stop at Bathurst. There is already businesses of one kind or another on all four corners.

Would the TTC buy the land of one of these corners through expropriation?

Then what? Is there some developer out there that would be willing to pay $300 million (enough to build the station and a bit of tunnel on either side) for the air rights before they even think about spending any money to actually build something?

And what would they build? I guess Ford is going to eliminate the planning department so they could allow a 50 story luxury condo on the site that would be needed to come close to generating the funds to pay that $300 million 'air rights'. Who cares what the locals think.

Or would this developer play it a little smarter, pass on spending $300 million for air rights and just buy the property across the street. His tenants would still be right next to a subway station (probably even with a tunnel under the street) and he wouldn't have to spend $300 million just to get some magical 'air rights'.

Is there another developer willing to pay $300 million for the 'air rights' at Keele and Eglinton? Dufferin? What about Bayview?

 

[GraphicMatt]

I also think that there's more to a desirable neighbourhood than just a subway station. Loook at some of the shabby neighbourhoods with subway stations along the Bloor line. You can't just stick a condo tower on top of a subway station and expect the money to flow. It has to be part of a cohensive plan.