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Candidates and their subway plans... The Star tells you which one is more credible

Which Subway/Transit plan do you support

  • Sarah Thomson

    Votes: 53 60.9%
  • Rocco Rossi

    Votes: 2 2.3%
  • Joe Pantalone

    Votes: 15 17.2%
  • George Smitherman

    Votes: 11 12.6%
  • Rob Ford

    Votes: 6 6.9%

  • Total voters
    87

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Reality check: Subways are great, but at what cost?

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tor...lity-check-subways-are-great-but-at-what-cost


What will the next mayor do to fix Toronto’s transit crisis? Four candidates have weighed in so far, each with an ambitious — some would argue impossible — blueprint, a multi-billion-dollar price tag and various strategies for finding the cash.

For the record, a kilometre of light rail costs about $100 million, a kilometre of subway runs around $300 million, and above-ground subways are about $250 million per kilometre.

So which candidates are on the right track and which just dreaming?



SARAH THOMSON
The plan:

54 kilometres of above- and below-ground subway lines, including a downtown relief line, Eglinton line, and extension of the Bloor-Danforth, Spadina, and Sheppard routes, funded in part by road tolls, working with developers and creating a subway bond.

Projected cost:

$14 billion.

Would it work:

TTC chair Adam Giambrone says Thomson’s plan is the most realistic, because it acknowledges new revenue would need to be generated. She estimates $5 rush-hour road tolls on major routes could generate $400 million to $500 million per year. (A 2007 city report anticipates just $74 million to $120 million.) She also assumes public-private partnerships will reduce cost to $200 million per kilometre.

The good:

Truly a citywide expansion, and her funding strategy is the most truthful.

The bad:

Numbers still don’t add up and there are legitimate concerns with her fuzzy timeline, and whether populations along some routes could adequately support a subway line.



ROCCO ROSSI
The plan:

“Transit City Plus†would extend Sheppard line to Scarborough Town Centre, then close the loop to hook up with Bloor-Danforth line. Would build 2 kilometres per year over the next decade. Wouldn’t scrap Transit City entirely, or turn away provincial dollars, but would modify existing proposal.

Projected cost:

$4.5 billion (not including $8.15 billion for Transit City already in the works).

Would it work:

Would use sale of Toronto Hydro for estimated $3 billion to pay down city’s debt, then redirect existing $450 million allocated for debt repayment to construction. Critics say Hydro wouldn’t fetch that much and that Rossi is ignoring the fact the province would take about one-third of the sale as a transfer tax.

The good:

Rossi’s plan is in many ways modest, and beneficial for booming Scarborough. His schedule and cost estimates are specific and more or less in line with the research. “I don’t agree with his numbers but at least he’s honest and saying ‘I have Asset A and I’ll trade that in and get money with which to build Asset B,†said Steve Munro, local transit blogger.

The bad:

It’s still unclear which parts of Transit City Rossi would scrap.



JOE PANTALONE
The plan:

Aligned with David Miller’s plan for Transit City. Provincially funded initiative is designed to get rapid transit into underserved areas quickly: about 50 kilometres of light rail with about 90 stops along Sheppard, Eglinton and Finch Aves. over the next 10 years, as well as a rebuild of Scarborough Rapid Transit.

Projected cost:

$8.15 billion

Would it work:

Concerns were raised by province’s decision to delay $4 billion of the funding. Advocates fear a change in government could derail the plan.

The good:

With money on the table and major players on board, Transit City seems to be the city’s best hope of getting better transit into Toronto’s most needy communities quickly.

The bad:

Some of the track will be below ground, but most will be above ground and may add to congestion despite their dedicated rights-of-way.



GEORGE SMITHERMAN
The plan:

Essentially Transit City Deluxe, a mix of subway and light rail rolled out in two phases before and after the 2015 Pan Am Games: First, extending the Spadina line, Queens Quay, Eglinton and Sheppard LRT. Second, extending Sheppard subway west, a Finch West LRT, Scarborough line, and extending the Bloor-Danforth line.

Projected cost:

$17 billion

Would it work:

After current commitments by Metrolinx, province and federal government, Smitherman says the city would be on the hook for about $7 billion. He plans to find the extra cash from parking authority and Hydro dividends, as well as the city’s share of gas taxes. The problem is, those funds are already being spent in the budget.

The good:

In Smitherman’s Toronto, you could ride the subway from the Scarborough Town Centre to Sherway Gardens in Etobicoke.

The bad:

His funding plan is not realistic, does not include a downtown relief line, and many of the initial proposals are already approved.



ROB FORD
The plan:

Yet to release a comprehensive transit plan, but has called for an end to Transit City, saying: “People want subways.â€

Projected cost:

?

Would it work:

Ford has mused about selling air rights on top of stations to help pay for construction. It’s too early to judge Ford’s transit vision, let alone if it would work.

The good:

People actually do want subways.

The bad:

Killing Transit City now would mean many underserved neighbourhoods would continue to be underserved, and there is no guarantee the province would fund a future initiative. There are also questions about whether Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York have the density to support subways.

With files from Tess Kalinowski
 
None are credible without strong support from the province. We have that now and still struggle with basic capital expenses like fixing tunnel liners and replacing old rolling stock.
 
I like Sarah Thomson. Beyond that, I'd go Smitherman or Rossi. It's about more than just the Transit Plan for me. But Sarah's has the most long term vision for me. In second place, it would somehow seem to me, that Smitherman could well pull off more than Rossi. I am not willing to discount Smitherman's connections and understanding of the provincial government and bureaucracy. Yes, his plan isn't refined. But there is a vision there (like a northern crosstown for example) and there's Smitherman's brute force. That said, Rossi, has at least offered some innovative thinking on financing.

Anybody but Pantalone or Ford. The latter is an out of date relic who really won't do anything for transit and will probably take the city backwards in several other domains. And the former has no vision beyond what Miller whispered in his ear. If he can't even acknowlege the flaws in Transit City from an LRT fan perspective, than what good is he? I don't want a mayor who has no vision and can't think for himself. I'd rather just have Miller himself than his mouthpiece.
 
These candidates are not the sharpest knives I've seen so far. But Sarah Thomson appears to be sharper looking than the rest.

Although I loathe Smitherman less than before [and still likes Rocco Rossi], I'd give applause to Thomson. It comes the closest to what Toronto was proposing its subway network in the past. Even though her cost analysis is little fuzzy, it's close to anything we can have in reality, and grand at the same time. Smitherman has made the transit proposal appealing, but adding $7Bil just made it a deal-breaker. Rossi, while as good as Thomson's proposal, still need to rethink about how having no tolls [but selling off T.O.'s ludicrous assets] can benefit T.O. in the long term, outside the transit development.

I'm still waiting for what Rob Ford is bringing up...

I don't want another trilobite to run T.O. Miller already screwed up T.O. and now his servant wants to take the reins? Gasp~
 
This is how I would order the plans from best to worst:

1) Joe Pantalone - Not sexy, but is affordable and realistic. While Transit City isn't perfect, I'm confident that by 2018 the new lines would mostly be in place and we would be beginning on the now essential DRL. Only requires a bit more provincial funding to get built.
2) Sarah Thomson - Kudos on proposing a potentially unpopular funding method, but tolls would only cover a minority of what she is proposing. No time line raises the question of if we will be waiting decades for some of these lines. Scraping the Eglinton and SELRT routes that are already underway is dumb.
3) George Smitherman - Aggressive transit expansion is good, and he would preserve much of Transit City. Has by far the most expensive plan and calls for subways where we don't need them. No credible idea of how to pay for any of it.
4) Rocco Rossi - Only 2km per year would mean his priority Eglinton and Scarborough routes wouldn't be done before about 2030. In his plan the best case would be a DRL in 2040. Horrible idea for how to pay for it. No clear vision on what would be built.
5) Rob Ford - What plan? Vague call for more subways, with no idea of routes or realistic funding strategy
 
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Is Sarah Thomson stuck with Transit City, and the DRL with her funding method, I think she would have gained more support. As it stands, she got stuck in the "subways are cheap" trap.
 
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Apparently, TC is losing its support.
The only TC lines I'm fine with are Finch West and ECLRT [though I prefer subway], all which are the centre of controversy regarding the project. Besides Waterfront LRTs, others must be trashed, immediately.
I'm do not want to see only Ford, Smitherman and Pantalone left standing (which sadly, it might be).
 
Apparently, TC is losing its support.
The only TC line I'm fine with are Finch West and ECLRT [though I prefer subway], all which are the centre of controversy regarding the project. Besides Waterfront LRTs, others must be trashed, immediately.
I'm do not want to see only Ford, Smitherman and Pantalone left standing (which sadly, it might be).

Where do hyou get this idea from? Joe Pantalone supports TC, Smitherman's plan still contains components of TC. The other candidates clearly want to maintain the auto status-quo. I have seen more proof of support for Transit City, especially amongst the citizens.
 
Where do hyou get this idea from?

The fact that with the exception of one candidate, none of them support Transit City in its entirety. Even the candidates that do take pieces of Transit City are largely doing so because to some extent they are stuck with them (because they've advanced far enough along).

The other candidates clearly want to maintain the auto status-quo. I have seen more proof of support for Transit City, especially amongst the citizens.

Keep dreaming. Politicians are not ignorant of public opinion. They live and die by it. They will go where the public wants them to go. Don't you think that if there was more public support for Transit City that there were would be many more TC shills? That there isn't shows you how much affection the public really has for Transit City.

You can write them off as wanting to maintaint the "auto status-quo". It's the standard response from your camp. Don't support TC? Then you must be anti-transit. In reality, these politicians understand exactly what the citizens of this city want. Just look at Smitherman's platform. It is exactly what most voters in this city want. Most Scarborough residents think the Kennedy transfer is moronic. So he extends the subway to STC. Most south Etobicoke residents hate having to go all the way to Kipling to access the subway. So he extends the subway to Sherway. And increasingly these days, I hear tons of people ask why Sheppard doesn't go until Downsview. It seems so obvious for most residents in the northern third of the city. So that's what he's promised. Is it the perfect plan? Hell no. But it addresses the public's concerns. You can wish that away, however you want. But the public isn't anti-transit. They know what they like and they want politicians who will make it happen.

Ultimately, we'll get to see this Fall how popular Transit City is. If there's really as much support for TC as you claim, I would expect Pantalone to be able to cruise to an easy victory.
 
Keep dreaming. Politicians are not ignorant of public opinion. They live and die by it. They will go where the public wants them to go.

I agree, and that is why we have seen the candidates noticeably move more towards Transit City. When he announced Rossi promised to "put Transit City on hold", a couple months later he is now calling his plan "Transit City Plus" and is keeping some of the lines.

The same goes for Smitherman. In March he was calling for Transit City to be slowed down, but now his plans calls for keeping much of it, and calls his plan "beyond Transit City."

Both these candidates have been busy doing polls and focus groups, and it is pretty clear that the message they are getting is that the public wants at least some of Transit City.
 
I agree, and that is why we have seen the candidates noticeably move more towards Transit City. When he announced Rossi promised to "put Transit City on hold", a couple months later he is now calling his plan "Transit City Plus" and is keeping some of the lines.

The same goes for Smitherman. In March he was calling for Transit City to be slowed down, but now his plans calls for keeping much of it, and calls his plan "beyond Transit City."

Both these candidates have been busy doing polls and focus groups, and it is pretty clear that the message they are getting is that the public wants at least some of Transit City.

Look at the context of that position shift though. The Transit City brand has become synonymous with transit expansion. They can't ditch the brand, for that reason. So they are keeping the brand. But look at the plans. They are getting as far from Transit City as is practically possible. And they are moving to include more subway expansion, which the public clearly wants. Ergo, support for Transit City (as envisisioned by Miller) is far from assured with the public.
 
I heard on the radio, it stated it is just a rumour though, not an official announcement, that yet another candidate may throw his hat into the ring for the mayor's job and that is John Tory. He is at his daughter's graduation right now and hasn't said anything but that was what was reported on 680News Radio this morning.

I know their is a lot more to being mayor then just transit but this one issue is really dominating this mayor's race. I am leaning toward Sarah Thomson but really feel that David Miller should run again. He did a lot for transit here in TO since I moved here indirectly from Vancouver 5 yrs ago. Miller and Giambrone were able to get the provincial AND federal funding for the much needed extension of the subway to York University and further north into Vaughn. I think if this extension is used heavily and spurs development in Vaughn I think it would be easier to secure funding for other subway extension, like the Yonge line to Richmond Hill or at least to Steeles. Funding might be possible for the westward extension of the Bloor Line to Sherway Gardens and having Mississauga's own future light rail hook up to the TTC subway system.

I would like to hear what John Tory has to say, I am not totally enthusiastic about any of the candidates yet but am leaning toward Thomson.
 
...David Miller should run again. He did a lot for transit here in TO since I moved here indirectly from Vancouver 5 yrs ago. Miller and Giambrone were able to get the provincial AND federal funding for the much needed extension of the subway to York University and further north into Vaughan.

Miller and Giambrone really didn't have much to do with it. Greg Sorbara made that subway extension happen.

I think if this extension is used heavily and spurs development in Vaughn I think it would be easier to secure funding for other subway extension, like the Yonge line to Richmond Hill or at least to Steeles. Funding might be possible for the westward extension of the Bloor Line to Sherway Gardens and having Mississauga's own future light rail hook up to the TTC subway system.

It's not because this extension will work well that the others will get built. They'll get built because the 905ers want the subways extended into their regions and the provincial politicians are always willing to pander to them. What's needed is a mayor that actually pushes for subway expansion inside Toronto.

I would like to hear what John Tory has to say, I am not totally enthusiastic about any of the candidates yet but am leaning toward Thomson.

I, too, would love to hear what Tory has to say. He may not be popular on UT, simply for the fact that he's a Conservative, but he's one of the few decent and competent politicians we have around. And he loves this town like few do. I think he'd make a great mayor. Whether he can actually win though, is debatable.
 
Tory ... wow, the right-wing vote is going to be even more split. With more traditional centrists going right (or in Rossi's case, neoRight), a dynamic left-wing candidate could sweep this election.

Shame that none of the candidates are dynamic. What's the nightmare scenario, everyone gets 10%, and Ford get's 11%?
 

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