kEiThZ
Superstar
At this point, I don't think TIA/Porter is much of a concern. That said, it's not at all clear as to whether the business is viable given the existing infrastructure envelope, and in case it isn't, what sort of interventions will be required. I mean, do we argue that we should build a bridge/longer runway and allow jets to operate? That's very different from the initial scenario painted by the operators. Shouldn't there be some iron-clad guarantees against that - otherwise, what you have is basically a Trojan Horse.
AoD
I think their business model is very viable. Indeed, Air Canada has been scouring the markets for used Q400s to help reduces its cost. The Q400 is a game changer. When you can run flights with 40 passengers and break even while Air Canada or Westjet needs 80 pax per flight, that's a huge advantage. My money is on Air Canada or Westjet going down before Porter based on this advantage.
As for maxing out at the island. I don't think that's going to happen any time soon. The island can handle a lot more traffic. A lot of their traffic limits (on the aviation side) come not from the size of the runway but from operations and aviation infrastructure constraints such as modified patterns for noise abatement (ops), and average comms/navaids (infrastructure). Fix the last one and you can increase throughput significantly. I actually the limiting factor at some point will be channel crossing. When Porter starts running a million passengers through a year those ferries are going to get quite busy.
Last point about the jet restriction. Keep it. There are very few jets that could operate off the island because of its runway length and regional jets are on the outs anyway with higher fuel prices. There are no passenger jets that any of our regional or national airlines have in service that could operate from the island without severe load restrictions. Allowing jets into the island would largely result in more slots getting used up by business jets carrying 5-10 business executives while pissing off the neighbours from the noise. So I think it's best to keep the restriction on jets, even though it offers Porter some advantages (keeps out AC Jazz RJs and frees up slots for Porter).