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Baby, we got a bubble!?

So essentially it's still status quo. Single family homes are going to continue rising in price albeit more gradually. Smaller unit condos will continue to soften. Buyers and sellers are basically just going to wait and see what happens in 2013.
 
James,
The report is from Royal Lepage. I guarantee you even if the market was crashing you would not see a report saying anything but "slight softening", temporary patch of weakness etc.
In the 6-9 months in Toronto in 2008 to 2009 prices fell approximately 15%. You did not read that things like major market decline. Agents who I knew well all admitted it to me but the R/E spin will be "mild". The realtor association representing realtors is not going to shoot the golden goose until it is clear to everyone that it has been dead for "years". Nor can you expect them to.
The other group reporting the same is bank economists who have lots of money tied up and large exposure despite CMHC downloading a good part of it.
One needs to view the source with a healthy amount of skepticism. It is interesting that Carney and Flaherty truly believed all was OK why would they have been warning again and again about over leverage? But then, their income and livelihood does not depend on this. However, they have the larger economy to worry about and probably can evaluate the risk more objectively.
Rant over. Sorry to all.
 
James,
The report is from Royal Lepage. I guarantee you even if the market was crashing you would not see a report saying anything but "slight softening", temporary patch of weakness etc.
In the 6-9 months in Toronto in 2008 to 2009 prices fell approximately 15%. You did not read that things like major market decline. Agents who I knew well all admitted it to me but the R/E spin will be "mild". The realtor association representing realtors is not going to shoot the golden goose until it is clear to everyone that it has been dead for "years". Nor can you expect them to.
The other group reporting the same is bank economists who have lots of money tied up and large exposure despite CMHC downloading a good part of it.
One needs to view the source with a healthy amount of skepticism. It is interesting that Carney and Flaherty truly believed all was OK why would they have been warning again and again about over leverage? But then, their income and livelihood does not depend on this. However, they have the larger economy to worry about and probably can evaluate the risk more objectively.
Rant over. Sorry to all.

you are completely correct interested.

one only has to look south and check NAR's reports - constantly upbeat even while the r/e markets throughout the US were crumbling.
 


Well that is kind of stupid!!! If there is a lot of that I would expect a 50% correction. Basically "get rich quick". Who takes on that kind of debt. Any little thing goes wrong and you are in trouble.

Along a somewhat similar venue, there was an interesting article in the Globe and Mail about "zombie mortgages" in the US. I don't know who saw it but in essence the short version is: Bank tells customer they are foreclosing and advises to leave property. Owner leaves. Bank decides it is too expensive to foreclose and the costs don't justify the process (often up to $80K I have heard). Bank does not proceed and also does not advise owner. Owner, who has moved out hears nothing or knows nothing and assumes title has been transferred. In the couple of years later, the place gets run down, stripped out of anything valuable. Then neighbours or by law enforcement comes in and writes up infringements or seeks back taxes. Since title of owner was not removed, the owner finds out later he is on the hook for repairs, even in some cases to demolish the property. Totally crazy...
 
From the Star:

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/13...-new-headwinds-in-florida-real-estate-markets


Chinese, the new Florida snowbirds
There are still deals to be had in Florida, like this Boynton Beach development near Fort Lauderdale which was bankrupt, has been bought up by a new developer and will be going on sale in late January, 2013. But competition is heating up say those in the real estate industry. Florida Home Finders of Canada Inc.

There are still deals to be had in Florida, like this Boynton Beach development near Fort Lauderdale which was bankrupt, has been bought up by a new developer and will be going on sale in late January, 2013. But competition is heating up say those in the real estate industry. Florida Home Finders of Canada Inc.

By Susan Pigg | Thu Jan 10 2013

Recommend (0)

Canadians looking to snap up dwindling real estate deals in Florida are finding themselves facing unexpected competition — from China.

With popular property markets like Vancouver and Toronto showing significant signs of softening, Asian investors seem to be shifting their focus south of the border, according to Canadians who specialize in marketing bargain-basement Florida houses and condos to snowbirds.

“Some of our clients got beat out recently because they were waiting to book flights. Some Chinese investors bought up 35 (townhouse-condo) units without even flying in first,†says Wayne Levy of Toronto-based Florida Home Finders.

“They looked at a picture. They wrote cheques. That’s what’s happening now.â€

Asian interest in Florida has “really picked up steam in the last year,†says Levy, whose company is still seeing strong demand from Canadian buyers, but finding it increasingly challenging to find properties under $150,000 as the beleaguered U.S. housing market slowly recovers and the inventory of distressed homes drops.

“They’re seeing the U.S. as a safe haven to put their money,†says Montreal-born realtor Shant Epremian, co-founder of Boca Raton-based Pink Palm Properties, who’s just returned from two weeks in Hong Kong, Beijing and Singapore.

“I am slowly starting to tap into that market because there is a tremendous amount of money there. Buyers are looking for good opportunities and see that Florida is still on sale.â€

In fact, there has been a surge in Asian buyers snapping everything from multi-million-dollar New York mansions to California estates, according to data from the U.S. National Association of Realtors.

While Florida has yet to see a surge of realty companies springing up to cater to Asian buyers, as has happened with the Canadian market since the U.S. housing market meltdown, websites like Juwai.com (Mandarin for “home overseasâ€) are creating links between Chinese buyers, in particular, and U.S. listings.

So far, Asian buyers remain “fairly minor players†in the Florida market, “but we are noticing some activity,†says John Tuccillo, chief economist for Florida Realtors, the trade association for the state’s 115,000 real estate professionals.

The biggest competition for Canadians, Tuccillo says, are investor groups that are now making unprecedented “bulk investments†— buying dozens of condos or houses at a time in markets, like Florida, which has seen steady price growth and the inventory of homes for sale sink to five months’ worth from the glut of 20 months back in 2008.

U.S. private real estate firm Blackstone Group LP, for instance, is just one of a handful of private companies now racing against the real estate recovery. It recently spent more than $2.5 billion on 16,000 houses in nine American cities, including Miami, which it plans to use as rentals.

“They are, in essence, wiping out the bottom of the market. It’s forcing other buyers to move up the price ladder,†says Tuccillo.

That, of course, includes Canadians who remain the dominant foreign buyers of Florida real estate, although their share of the market dropped to 31 per cent last year from 39 per cent in 2011, according to figures from Florida Realtors.

That’s partly because the pool of buyers has grown in the last year, says Tuccillo.

More Americans have been able to qualify for mortgages and buyers from other parts of the world, Brazil in particular, are not only on a buying binge, they’re willing to pay significantly more — median prices of $200,000 to $300,000 — about double the median paid by Canadians, according to Florida Realtors data.

All of which makes Ottawa resident Kathryn Millar happy she and her husband decided to make the leap now: They close later this month on a three-bedroom condo in Fort Myers that, with upgrades, cost $180,000 U.S.

The couple had planned on looking at Tampa’s Equestrian Parc development as well, but it had been bought out by Asian investors before they could make it to Florida.

Not surprising: for all those who said Chinese and others will forever buy in Canada this just shows that money will go where there is profit to be made. What if the same Chinese and others buying in Florida decide no more money to be made in Vancouver and Toronto and start selling in mass to deploy capital more effectively?
 
Article from the economist on global home prices http://www.economist.com/news/finan...ows-many-housing-markets-are-still-dumps-home

"Overvaluation is especially marked in Canada, particularly with respect to rents (78%) but also in relation to income (34%). Mark Carney, the country’s central-bank governor, who is soon to jump ship to join the Bank of England, where he takes over from Sir Mervyn King in July, may have shown good market timing with his move to London as well as a deft hand in negotiating his lavish remuneration."
 
Article from the economist on global home prices http://www.economist.com/news/finan...ows-many-housing-markets-are-still-dumps-home

"Overvaluation is especially marked in Canada, particularly with respect to rents (78%) but also in relation to income (34%). Mark Carney, the country’s central-bank governor, who is soon to jump ship to join the Bank of England, where he takes over from Sir Mervyn King in July, may have shown good market timing with his move to London as well as a deft hand in negotiating his lavish remuneration."

These calculations are simply stupid and meaningless. Canada's house price is over valued by 78%? Even Vancouver is not that bad.
Toronto and Vancouver are the hottest markets. If house market declines by 78%, then a $400k downtown condo should be priced at $80-90K? A $1M detached house is worth a bit $220K? this is sheer stupidity even for TO and Van, not to mention Canada as a whole.

In comparison to American cities in a normal year, Vancouver is probably over valued by 40-50% and Toronto by 20-25% (I am just pulling numbers out of my hat too!), assuming no speculation is involved and people are all rational about purchasing based on their payment ability. However in each market and during each period, factors such as market sentiment, peer pressure, media, speculation always play significant parts, so what a house is really worth in a perfect economist's world is completely irrelevant and meaningless.
 
These calculations are simply stupid and meaningless. Canada's house price is over valued by 78%? Even Vancouver is not that bad.
Toronto and Vancouver are the hottest markets. If house market declines by 78%, then a $400k downtown condo should be priced at $80-90K? A $1M detached house is worth a bit $220K? this is sheer stupidity even for TO and Van, not to mention Canada as a whole.

In comparison to American cities in a normal year, Vancouver is probably over valued by 40-50% and Toronto by 20-25% (I am just pulling numbers out of my hat too!), assuming no speculation is involved and people are all rational about purchasing based on their payment ability. However in each market and during each period, factors such as market sentiment, peer pressure, media, speculation always play significant parts, so what a house is really worth in a perfect economist's world is completely irrelevant and meaningless.

I agree that some of the numbers are overstated however I believe you may be misintrepeting some of the financial data.
If the property in Toronto was worth $100K and is 78% overvalued...that would be $178K. To bring it back to $100K would require a $78K loss on $178K or a 44% decline and not 78%. A huge correction, perhaps still unrealistic...but not the 78%.

I believe the crux of the article is in the following (last) paragraph:

"Misalignments with our gauges of fair value can persist for a long time, of course. That may spare countries where house prices have clearly overshot from a painful bust, but it may also mean that some markets end up mimicking Japan’s long descent and badly undershoot. At some point, central banks will have to take away the balm of easy money. If housing markets remain so fragile when they are getting so much help, they may break when it is removed."

Also, Japan's issues have a lot to do with demographics....older population...many of whom I suspect are in homes, not moving out, and with less younger people, an economy not growing for over a decade, will put negative pressure on prices of homes and that is what is being witnessed.

To tie this in with my other post of the article about Chinese buying in Florida, some of the "hot money" which chased Vancouver and Toronto markets likely will leave and then the question becomes what can the locals afford if we remove the distortion by the foreign investors. In Vancouver, I believe it is quite clear that prices will drop....even allowing for limited land to build. In Toronto, the per capita income is higher and there is more industry/financial types and therefore starting from a lower price and with higher income the drop will be presumably less.

You are correct that a number of factors play significant effects on the real world prices "from an economist's perfect world" but it is harsh to say it is "completely irrelevant and meaningless".....it just means that the conclusions have to be tempered with a dose of other non economic factors which may impact the conclusions. Then again, there is a reason they call "economics" the "dismal science".
 
what is overvalued? people need to stop basing it by average household incomes and think that the average household should be able or worse, entitled to buy a home. look at world class cities in the world (new york, tokyo, london, paris, hong kong, etc.), the average household cannot afford to buy and live in the city. toronto and vancouver and moving towards being top cities in the world, so gone are the days of affordable housing for the average family.

we need to stop thinking Toronto of the past, thinking it's just a cycle of ups and downs of the housing prices. Toronto has evolved and it's time to compare Toronto in light of other top cities and how their housing prices have changed
 
what is overvalued? people need to stop basing it by average household incomes and think that the average household should be able or worse, entitled to buy a home. look at world class cities in the world (new york, tokyo, london, paris, hong kong, etc.), the average household cannot afford to buy and live in the city. toronto and vancouver and moving towards being top cities in the world, so gone are the days of affordable housing for the average family.

we need to stop thinking Toronto of the past, thinking it's just a cycle of ups and downs of the housing prices. Toronto has evolved and it's time to compare Toronto in light of other top cities and how their housing prices have changed

There may be some merit to this but it sure sounds a bit like "things are different this time".
You may be right that Toronto is evolving but I think the outside hot money I referred to before in previous posts may leave for "greener" pastures. I am not sure that Vancouver has evolved into a top city. Rather, I think it was a place for Asian money to park in a "safe venue" and while it is a great city, I don't think it is in the league of cities of New York, Tokyo, london, Paris, Hong Kong, etc. though Toronto at best is hoping to become associated with this league.
 
what is overvalued? people need to stop basing it by average household incomes

No. Actually we should keep doing that.

Because, when you look at housing in London, Tokyo and Manhattan, people living in $2 million condos are well, you know, making a lot of money. You're mistaken if you think average incomes for people living in Manhattan are not adjusted to the cost of living.

Toronto's demographics and business climate don't even come close to justifying the price appreciation we're seeing. Hell, we're a more expensive city than Chicago these days. And our economy is much, much smaller.

Downtown Toronto average is well over $500 per square foot. Whereas, inside the loop in Chicago, the average is far below that -- it's around $440 per sq.ft.

So pray tell, are you saying that Toronto is in a "bigger league" than Chicago? Chicago's GDP is $554 billion. Toronto's is $260 billion. So we have about the same sized population of Chicago, and economy that's almost 50% the size. Yet our real estate prices are higher ...
 
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These calculations are simply stupid and meaningless. Canada's house price is over valued by 78%? Even Vancouver is not that bad.
Toronto and Vancouver are the hottest markets. If house market declines by 78%, then a $400k downtown condo should be priced at $80-90K? A $1M detached house is worth a bit $220K? this is sheer stupidity even for TO and Van, not to mention Canada as a whole.

No, you're just making a common mistake in your arithmetic. 78% over-valued means that a 44% drop is required to reach fair value.

If the current price was $1.78M, then a drop of $780K would reach the fair value of $1M. $780K / $1.78M = 44%.
 
Why you people still doubting there's a bubble?

I have (old) news for you: 1) The bubble has already burst. 2)I predicted when it would burst to the very week, almost 2 years in advance! (in this thread no less!) 3)Bubbles just don't "burst" once: there's stages where they go up and down but the trend is down. 4)People still buy homes in down trends, just not so much speculation and demand.
 

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