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Baby, we got a bubble!?

While I definitely think this is a frothy market (to the tune of 20% in condos and maybe 10% in houses), I think we will increasingly see a stratification between larger condos and smaller ones, with larger ones beginning to command more PSF for several reasons: 1) Many people who have fallen in love with condo living over the past 10 years will want to move up in size but not to a house, 2) the vast majority of condos coming onto the market are below 700 sf and the vast majority of the stock already built is small, so the supply is substantially less. It is possible that larger condos won't drop as much as smaller ones. However, if detached housing prices drop substantially, then larger condo's will follow suit even more dramatically.
I don't necessarily buy that argument.

I moved into my townhouse condo in the early 2000s (pre-construction purchased in 1999) and sold it in 2007. It was a 2-bedroom, and the price went up 85%. There were also 3-bedroom units there, which were up around 60-65% by the time I sold. To put it another way, while the absolute dollar value increase of the larger units was larger, the percentage of increase vs. initial purchase price was smaller.

The problem is that the 3-bedroom units cost so much, many were priced out of the market. And those with kids just moved to Riverdale or something.
 
I don't necessarily buy that argument.

I moved into my townhouse condo in the early 2000s (pre-construction purchased in 1999) and sold it in 2007. It was a 2-bedroom, and the price went up 85%. There were also 3-bedroom units there, which were up around 60-65% by the time I sold. To put it another way, while the absolute dollar value increase of the larger units was larger, the percentage of increase vs. initial purchase price was smaller.

The problem is that the 3-bedroom units cost so much, many were priced out of the market. And those with kids just moved to Riverdale or something.

I think this trend continues. I have a 1 bedroom in downtown Toronto 620 feet worth about $320K (or about $510/foot). Same building almost 1200 sq.ft 2 bedroom/den: value around $550K. In other words, $468/sq.ft. (and on higher floor amd with a view)

i think this stems from the fact that kitchens/bathrooms are expensive to build, bedrooms/dens less so. that said, Simuls is right in that there is an increased demand towards larger units and the price increase on over 700 sq. ft units I believe is accelerating, somewhat closing the gap on the smaller units.
 
I had a realtor send me the recent solds at Grand Trunk, from what they sent me they were at a more reasonable non frothy $490psf.

Grand Trunk is a dump compared to MLS.. 70's style apartment that takes 3-4 years to sell preconst. The developer just does not get it
 
I think it is telling that listings have gone from 12000 to 17000 in just 2 months. I expect continued acceleration in the short term of listings with an eventual levelling off and a stabilization and then a mild fall or at least level pricing. I think we are near a short term peak for pricing and suspect the people buying now to get in "in time before increased rates, new mortgage conditions, and HST, will be overpaying at least for the near term (the next 2 to 3 years).

What is quoted below is from Remaxcondosplus.

"The Spring Market has arrived - about one month early. As reported by the Toronto Real Estate Board, sales in February were 7300 units - a 77% increase over February of '09. Sales were higher than those in '07 and '08 and were in fact a record. Already March sales are tracking at 9,800 units which will easily surpass those of previous years and will be approaching April numbers. While a lack of snow is certainly a factor, it is apparent that everyone is in a rush to beat the self imposed HST deadline of July 1st!
While sales are increasing, listings are accelerating at an even faster pace. At the end of February, active listings stood at 14,514 units. At the end of January it was just 12,000 and already we are at 17,000 listings and climbing in March! If you track condo listings the same trend is evident. And then there is the Assignment Market which will just add to the supply of condos for sale. The house market usually peaks in June and condos peak a month later.
Our best guess for this year is that this market will peak in May or maybe April if the new Fed. Regulations on mortgage lending scheduled for April 19 take a real bite."
 
...

Well, now it's March 2010, and one of the banks is stealing my mortgage business away from my existing lender, with a cash deal and an even better rate, so I'm getting yet another appraisal again. So, 3 appraisals in less than 3 years.
Slightly off topic, but can you share any details on this?
I'm locked into a 5yr fixed, and have just under 2yrs to renewal.
I tried to renegotiate a better rate, but was told I would be slapped with extremely punitive mortgage cancellation fees.
My mortgagor calculates the interest differential using a 1yr rate, as opposed to the current 5yr rate, which causes higher penalties. 5.25% sounded like a good deal at the time, but now I'm jealous of all those who've been able to take advantage of lower rates.

If I could get another bank to offer some sort of cash deal or compensation in lieu of the cancellation fees, I would consider switching the mortage.
 
Slightly off topic, but can you share any details on this?
I'm locked into a 5yr fixed, and have just under 2yrs to renewal.
I tried to renegotiate a better rate, but was told I would be slapped with extremely punitive mortgage cancellation fees.
My mortgagor calculates the interest differential using a 1yr rate, as opposed to the current 5yr rate, which causes higher penalties. 5.25% sounded like a good deal at the time, but now I'm jealous of all those who've been able to take advantage of lower rates.

If I could get another bank to offer some sort of cash deal or compensation in lieu of the cancellation fees, I would consider switching the mortage.
CIBC is offering 2% cash back for switchers, or 3% cash back if the mortgage is over $400000. You'd have to call them directly or visit your local branch, and no I don't work for them. The rates are 3.3% and 3.99% for 3-year and 5-year terms respectively. Neither are the lowest available rates, but are quite good after considering the cash back offers.

BTW, I'm not sure what you mean, but IRD calculations usually are calculated using the closest term length's rate. In your case it would make more sense that they'd use the 2 year rate (although each bank does things its own way). It's very punitive if your rate is high (5.25%) and the current rates are low. They are trying to recoup the amount they'd lose if you left, for those last two years.

The calculation is rather complicated but here's a stab at it.

Your existing rate is 5.25%, but that's undoubtedly discounted from the posted rate. I don't know what the posted rate was at that time, but I'm guessing perhaps it was 5.79%, which would mean a discount of 0.54%. The current 2-year posted rate is about 3.95%. The IRD is your current rate minus a comparable term's rate with discount, multiplied by the length of time left.

So, using my hypothetical numbers, the IRD would be 5.25% - (3.95% - 0.54%) = 1.84% per year or 0.15333% per month. If you have 22 months left, that would be 3.373% for the IRD penalty. If your mortgage is say $200000, that would mean the penalty is about $6750. (This page can help in the calculation.)

Unfortunately, for a $200000 mortgage, CIBC's cash back is only 2%, which would be $4000. That would not be enough to cover the IRD in this case. Plus there may be some other fees, like a $300 mortgage discharge fee, plus legal fees, etc.

So, would it make sense to do this? Possibly. You'd have to decide whether or not it makes sense for you. If the IRD is very high, even with a cash back it may not make sense to switch. You'll have to run through the numbers yourself to see.

What can help is to make a lump sum payment to reduce the amount owing, to reduce the IRD amount. However, if you don't have any spare money lying around, that's not going to help you. If you have a home equity line of credit, sometimes you can use that to help pay down the mortgage, and then the new bank will roll that HELOC amount into the new mortgage. However, YMMV, and again, you'd have to check all the different mathematic scenarios.

BTW, sometimes it pays to negotiate. Your bank should have something called a blend and extend. With this they can sometimes reduce the rate somewhat without requiring any overt penalty, if you agree to stay with them. If you still threaten to leave, they may be able to give you a somewhat better rate but with a reduced IRD penalty to encourage you to stay. This may be esp. true if you... casually... mention CIBC's cash back deal. Your bank's deal may not end up being a super great deal, but any improvement is better than nothing.


I think this trend continues. I have a 1 bedroom in downtown Toronto 620 feet worth about $320K (or about $510/foot). Same building almost 1200 sq.ft 2 bedroom/den: value around $550K. In other words, $468/sq.ft. (and on higher floor amd with a view)

i think this stems from the fact that kitchens/bathrooms are expensive to build, bedrooms/dens less so. that said, Simuls is right in that there is an increased demand towards larger units and the price increase on over 700 sq. ft units I believe is accelerating, somewhat closing the gap on the smaller units.
Yeah, so let's say a 3 full-bedroom were about 1400 sq. ft, at about $450 per sf. That ends up being $630000. At that price we're starting to get into semi-detached home territory, with backyard and driveway, at least for some areas which are OK. And if you're going to be considering $630000, you might just consider $750000 for a nicer one in a nicer area, that is if you can afford it.

I was watching a video at The Globe and Mail a while back which interviewed a real estate analyst. She said there is a definite ceiling to average condo pricing, with a disincentive for 3-bedroom condo units. Even though there is more of a tendency for staying downtown these days, it's still uncommon for families looking for more space, for obvious reasons.

As such, developers don't usually build these, and thus we have a problem of low inventory of big places downtown and few developers building more. And large penthouse suites don't count, because they have the added costs associated with just being penthouses.
 
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For what it's worth... and I know that home appraisals are wrought with various issues... my (detached) home was appraised (by the bank) in Feb/March 2009 at about what it was appraised at in summer 2007 (by another bank). I renegotiated my mortgage in March 2009 because of the excellent interest rates at that time, hence the second appraisal. At that time home prices were only starting to get out of the toilet.

Well, now it's March 2010, and one of the banks is stealing my mortgage business away from my existing lender, with a cash deal and an even better rate, so I'm getting yet another appraisal again. So, 3 appraisals in less than 3 years.

It will be interesting to see if they actually increase the appraised amount significantly, and by "signficantly" I mean over 10%. (It might be a somewhat inaccurate comparison though, since my my finished basement is no longer finished. It's gutted for my renovation.) However, I wouldn't be surprised if it was "only" 5%+ more, and 20% more seems wickedly overpriced IMHO.
So the appraisal came it a bit lower than I expected. The appraisal was slightly more than March 2009, but barely. I suspect this is for two reasons: No usable basement now - gutted a couple of months ago - and all the comps are from November 2009. No similar sales in my area recently.

I don't know what the November 2009 --> March 2010 premium is but the guy did indicate that the house would have been worth more with a finished basement (and even gave a specific dollar value for a hypothetical finished basement). However, even with the finished basement, the overall increase would have been only 3.5%. Close to my guess of 5% I suppose, but as I was expecting it was nowhere near 20%.

However, with regards to the November 2009 --> March 2010 premium, would that mean another few percent?

The Teranet data only goes up to Dec. 2009. (There is a 3 month lag.) So, there is no way to compare March 2008 vs. March 2010 using that data.
FWIW, March 2008 has an index score of 112.4 and March 2009 has a score of 104.7. The low point was April 2009 at 104.1. Dec. 2009 was 119.7.

Thus, March 2010 is probably in the 120s, but it's anyone's guess how far.
120 would be a 2008-2010 increase of 6.8%, 125 would be an 11.2% increase, and 130 would be a 15.7% increase.
According to Teranet, November 2009 was 118.18, and December was 119.65. We have no more data, but I might conservatively guess 121-122 for March 2010, so that might add another 2-3% to the price.

Thus, that 5%+ guess of mine... for my area... may be an accurate one after all, all things considered. We'll see when the March data comes out.
 
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I don't necessarily buy that argument.

I moved into my townhouse condo in the early 2000s (pre-construction purchased in 1999) and sold it in 2007. It was a 2-bedroom, and the price went up 85%. There were also 3-bedroom units there, which were up around 60-65% by the time I sold. To put it another way, while the absolute dollar value increase of the larger units was larger, the percentage of increase vs. initial purchase price was smaller.

The problem is that the 3-bedroom units cost so much, many were priced out of the market. And those with kids just moved to Riverdale or something.

I agree that there is definitely a price ceiling to certain types of condos, that's why I made mention of housing prices and their relationship to condo prices. I did find this however in a re/max condosplus report for Feb/Mar 2010.

"In this issue, we examined sales at New Times Square - 109 Front Street E. in the St. Lawrence Market area. Prices in this building tend to be lower than others in the area. The first unit we looked at was a one-bedroom, 780sf, 2 level loft with parking and locker. The last sale was in August of 2009 at $332,000 (107% of list). It previously sold in 2006 for $245,000 and in 2003 for $215,000. The current price is $425 per sf and the unit has appreciated by 55% over 6 years or just under 9% per year. A second unit we looked at was a two-bedroom, two bath unit with parking and locker. At just over 900sf it sold at the end of 2009 for $450,000 (again 107% of list). It also sold in 2003 and 2001 for $295,000 each time. The current price of $490 per sf supports what we told you two years ago, that while smaller units were more expensive on a per sf basis, larger units would generate higher prices in the future and we are now seeing that changeover, as condo buyers start to move up and demand bigger units. The problem is that developers are building fewer big units over 1,000sf and that will be where the price premium will kick in as we go forward in this market."

I think the lack of supply will definitely continue to skew this number upward - as long as houses remain as expensive as they currently are. It's also possible that people like Adam Vaughan will win their battle to bring families downtown. It's been done before - Vancouver's downtown population of children has quintupled since 1986 because of city planning.
 
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So are you suggesting there is a tendency now for 2-bedroom units to be priced high, in terms of $ per square foot, as compared to 1-bedroom units?

Maybe that's true overall I dunno, but I could see that happening to a certain extent. However, because of that price ceiling issue, that may not extrapolate for 3-bedroom units over 2-bedroom units. And 4-bedroom units? Rare as hens teeth.
 
Grand Trunk is a dump compared to MLS.. 70's style apartment that takes 3-4 years to sell preconst. The developer just does not get it

Perhaps. Either way, I can see MLS going for $550 psf by the time registration. I can't understand the greed of some people trying to flip a condo they paid $420-$480 psf (depending on view and which tower) for more than what the same developer is offering pre-construction across the street
 
...
BTW, I'm not sure what you mean, but IRD calculations usually are calculated using the closest term length's rate. In your case it would make more sense that they'd use the 2 year rate (although each bank does things its own way). It's very punitive if your rate is high (5.25%) and the current rates are low. They are trying to recoup the amount they'd lose if you left, for those last two years.

The calculation is rather complicated but here's a stab at it.

Your existing rate is 5.25%, but that's undoubtedly discounted from the posted rate. I don't know what the posted rate was at that time, but I'm guessing perhaps it was 5.79%, which would mean a discount of 0.54%. The current 2-year posted rate is about 3.95%. The IRD is your current rate minus a comparable term's rate with discount, multiplied by the length of time left.

So, using my hypothetical numbers, the IRD would be 5.25% - (3.95% - 0.54%) = 1.84% per year or 0.15333% per month. If you have 22 months left, that would be 3.373% for the IRD penalty. If your mortgage is say $200000, that would mean the penalty is about $6750. (This page can help in the calculation.)

Hi Eug. Thanks for the information. Right now the 2% cash back wouldn't quite compensate me for the interest differential penalty, but I plan to follow up with CIBC in a few months to see if this offer still holds.

Regarding the Interest Rate Differential calculation, my mortgagor told me they were calculating the IRD based on what they could get for an equivalent 2 yr mortgage, which is roughly the amount of time left on my current mortgage. They said the equivalent 2yr rate would be 2.65%. The IRD calculation seems rather punitive especially since they're currently offering 5yrs at 3.89%, which is what I had assumed the IRD would be calculated on.

I'm mildly annoyed, but realistically, if I look back 3yrs ago, 5.25% seemed like a good rate. At that time, 5yr rates were approaching 6%, the economy was going strong, and all the talk was about rates going higher. In lieu of the information I had back then, I'm trying not to kick myself too much, because it seemed like a wise move to go fixed for 5yrs. Who would have thought that the bank rate would fall almost to 0%...
 
I think I realized there was an issue when I was at Nicholas Residences watching investors purchase $300K bachelors for the sole purpose of renting them out. This doesn't make much sense to me. The greed is pretty ridiculous from the devlopers to the investors. With the recent inflation news....it will be interesting to see what happens over the next 6-12 months. I'm no expert, but I can see prices dipping a bit... I'm starting to see it now.
 

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