BrianPersaud
Active Member
Interesting to see how it will play out.
|
|
|
Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
Interesting to see how it will play out.
Eug
Senior Member
TREB data for mid-March
This represented a 70 per cent increase compared to the 2,562 sales recorded during the same period in 2009 when resale transactions had dipped markedly due to the recession. The mid-month sales total was also 16 per cent higher than the previous March midmonth high reached in 2006.
Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,353 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during the first two weeks of March.
"Look for double-digit annual price increases to cease later in 2010, as new listings rebound from the low levels experienced in 2009," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Increased listings will give buyers more choice, resulting in less upward pressure on home prices.”
City of Toronto ("416")
Sales 2010 - 1726
Price 2010 - $491680 (+22.8%)
Sales 2009 - 987
Price 2009 - $400454
Rest of GTA ("905")
Sales 2010 - 2627
Price 2010 - $406298 (+18.2%)
Sales 2009 - 1575
Price 2009 - $343594
GTA
Sales 2010 - 4353
Price 2010 - $440153 (+20.4%)
Sales 2009 - 2562
Price 2009 - $365499
This represented a 70 per cent increase compared to the 2,562 sales recorded during the same period in 2009 when resale transactions had dipped markedly due to the recession. The mid-month sales total was also 16 per cent higher than the previous March midmonth high reached in 2006.
Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,353 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during the first two weeks of March.
"Look for double-digit annual price increases to cease later in 2010, as new listings rebound from the low levels experienced in 2009," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Increased listings will give buyers more choice, resulting in less upward pressure on home prices.”
City of Toronto ("416")
Sales 2010 - 1726
Price 2010 - $491680 (+22.8%)
Sales 2009 - 987
Price 2009 - $400454
Rest of GTA ("905")
Sales 2010 - 2627
Price 2010 - $406298 (+18.2%)
Sales 2009 - 1575
Price 2009 - $343594
GTA
Sales 2010 - 4353
Price 2010 - $440153 (+20.4%)
Sales 2009 - 2562
Price 2009 - $365499
daveto
Active Member
As we all know, March 2009 was an anomaly.
However these prices are 11% higher, and sales volumes 40% higher (!), than two years ago before the recession began.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2008/nr031908.htm
And of the prices, they are 5% higher in 905, but a whopping 20% higher in Toronto 416 over 2 yrs ago.
However these prices are 11% higher, and sales volumes 40% higher (!), than two years ago before the recession began.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2008/nr031908.htm
And of the prices, they are 5% higher in 905, but a whopping 20% higher in Toronto 416 over 2 yrs ago.
Last edited:
Eug
Senior Member
City of Toronto ("416")
Price 2010 - $491680 (+20.2%)
Price 2008 - $409116
GTA
Price 2010 - $440153 (+14.2%)
Price 2008 - $385405
Frothy!
urbandreamer
recession proof
I'm going "all in" long. I'm a bull. Yeah!
BrianPersaud
Active Member
interested
Senior Member
Perhaps one could also argue that March 2010 is an anomaly as people rush in to take advantage of low interest rates, the change in mortgage rules, and the HST coming inJuly of this year and therefore March 2010 is overrepresented and drawing forth sales from the future to today.
interested
Senior Member
I am sorry but I do not follow. Could you explain why are you saying 100%. Is it not 20% from 2008 for the City of Toronto or are you referring to some other statistic besides price?
Eug
Senior Member
What do you mean? With a 20% downpayment?
Perhaps, but that doesn't include all the various fees, or the 5% realtors' commission.
P.S. The mortgage lender market is quite fierce at the moment, and I am switching my mortgage. One of the the lenders is offering killer cash back deals along with quite reasonable rates to steal existing home owners from their competitors. The effective fixed rates (counting the cash back) end up being under 3%, with some closer to 2% depending on the amortization period. I wonder why they're being so aggressive here. Perhaps they view existing home owners as safer than new ones? Cuz they're losing a lot of profit with the cash back.
daveto
Active Member
Indeed. And if you had bought into equities 1 year ago, and leveraged a measly 10-to-3, you would have made 200% in one year.
interested
Senior Member
Isn't it amazing how brilliant we all are in hindsight?
And Dave, levering in Toronto the year before at 10 to 3 would have cost you what: All your principal more than 2 times and had to pay back the loan on top of it.
I guess with Real estate like the stock market, leverage is a very sharp 2 sided sword. Also, if you had a big run up, I would bet on a significant levelling if not a downturn to compensate for the market getting ahead of itself.
urbandreamer
recession proof
Or if you'd sunk all your money into Ford Motor Company stock 1 year ago, you'd have a 14 bagger in your pocket.
daveto
Active Member
My point exactly.
CN Tower
Banned
The home price appreciation argument over the past 2 years is specious at best. While the average GTA/416 prices may have increased, (so say the ridiculously conflicted realtors) if you had bought a home or condo in Etobicoke in the Spring of 2008 for $789,000 for example, there is absolutely no assurances that your home would be worth more today, net of significant transactional costs. I've heard many first timer buyers in trendy neighbourhoods repeatedly say that 2007 was the cyclical peak of homes in their area. You really never know until your deal is closed.
Whereas, a stock purchase for a $8 commission can be easily traced and verified minute by minute. Btw, urbandreamer, Ford was at $30 in the earlier part of the decade and could just as easily have gone the way of GM so timing (and luck!) is everything in the stock market my friend!
Whereas, a stock purchase for a $8 commission can be easily traced and verified minute by minute. Btw, urbandreamer, Ford was at $30 in the earlier part of the decade and could just as easily have gone the way of GM so timing (and luck!) is everything in the stock market my friend!
interested
Senior Member
You bring up an interesting point many times discussed in other areas on this forum. Comparing the same house that resold 2 years apart (presumably with no capital improvement to the property) is a more interesting comparison. Given that the high end absolutely stopped 1 and 1/2 years ago and that the low end still had sales; and given that the high end is now selling again, this is skewing the data to suggest a much higher "average price" as there is more relative volume of homes being sold with a higher price tag. My view is that while things are definately up, it is not the 20% for someone selling the same property unless they happen to have bought at exactly the bottom (perhaps March 2009 and a more expensive property that came down more). My guess is that in Toronto it is closer to 10% on average for the same property over 2 years.
In defence of Urban Dreamer (though I know he is quite capable of standing up for himself), he simply wished to demonstrate in the extreme of "what could be if one had a crystal ball". Personally, I found his post brought a smile to my face and that he used sarcasm very effectively to drive home a point.