TrickyRicky
Senior Member
^Fair enough. There was a crash in 1987 and a smaller secondary event in 1989. These details aren't really the main point of the argument, which is concerned with how we view events and the relative insignificants of a 6-month horizon.
However, if we could revisit the actual events I listed and compare (end of) 1987 to the 1993 housing bottom (depending where). I'm sure people who have 5-year mortgage terms that bought in the last few years would take no comfort in the date of their renewal obligation if we project that 1987 is to 2008 as 1993 is to 2014.
Of course we need to be careful about projecting forward historical events as each event has it's own unique features. We can count on history repeating itself but we can't really predict how and when with great accuracy. The point to take away is that if there is a next housing bottom it could still be several years away.
However, if we could revisit the actual events I listed and compare (end of) 1987 to the 1993 housing bottom (depending where). I'm sure people who have 5-year mortgage terms that bought in the last few years would take no comfort in the date of their renewal obligation if we project that 1987 is to 2008 as 1993 is to 2014.
Of course we need to be careful about projecting forward historical events as each event has it's own unique features. We can count on history repeating itself but we can't really predict how and when with great accuracy. The point to take away is that if there is a next housing bottom it could still be several years away.