Baby, we got a bubble!?

[TheKingEast]

It already has. I recall stories between 2005 and 2009 on people who were selling their home, expecting to rent for a few years, then buy it back cheaper. I personally know more than a few people who were holding out on lower prices in 2006 when they had a downpayment and ended up buying at much higher prices many years later.

I wouldn't buy into todays market with the expectation that prices will increase BUT I also wouldn't wait on a downpayment expecting they'll drop soon either.

Yep. There's so many people sitting back waiting for prices to fall off a cliff so they can enter into the market. Some have been waiting for 10 years. My question to those people. Was it worth it? If prices drop 20% there are many who will be affected, but there are many who won't be affected and would still turn a profit if they sold. People underestimate the number of homeowners who have had their properties double in the last 5-10 years, there are some who have tripled the value.

I see more tears from those who missed the boat.

 

[narduch]

Rooting for the housing market to collapse is rooting for the economy to go in the shitter too.

Why would anybody want that to happen?

 

[RZ12]

Rooting for the housing market to collapse is rooting for the economy to go in the shitter too.

Why would anybody want that to happen?

The world we live in are full of pessimistic people unfortunately.

 

[ccdd]

On another thread

^^My banker, my parents' banker and at least 2 of our real estate agents would disagree; they all believe a correction is imminent, due to the recent surge in prices in Vancouver/Toronto. I actually held off on a small investment purchase with a friend to see what happens to the market during the winter.

These graphs make me believe that Vancouver houses and Toronto condos are overvalued relative to their respective markets.
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

I heard the same thing from my financial advisor. Major correction not merely "inevitable", but "imminent", said by a guy who would be better off telling me to do a mortgage with him (I was looking at a few properties already). Only realtors and speculators will lose out in a correction, so obviously they don't want the gravy to stop.

 

[narduch]

A major correction will mean a major recession.

A lot of people who post on this forum will probably be out of work, as I assume most of us are involved in the construction industry in some form or another. And new construction will probably come crashing to a halt.

It won't be pretty if it happens.

 

[TheKingEast]

A major correction will mean a major recession.

A lot of people who post on this forum will probably be out of work, as I assume most of us are involved in the construction industry in some form or another. And new construction will probably come crashing to a halt.

It won't be pretty if it happens.

There are a bunch of people who think a crash would help them get a house, but completely disregard the effects of a crash. Many won't even have jobs to take advantage of the cheaper prices.

In addition, saying a correction will happen is like saying someone will die. Eventually, yes, that will happen. It's all about WHEN it will happen. Will it happen in 6 months or 7 years?

 

[ccdd]

Obviously a housing correction wouldn't make forumers happy on sites like this or skyscrapercity, but construction is just one aspect of a healthy economy. Contrary to political rhetoric, we should build to create things we need, not for the sake of creating jobs. We don't need our cityscape polluted with ugly, unusable, investor-driven condo floorplans. The best projects happen in a buyers market, when developers can't get away with selling substandard product.

 

[slicecom]

The best projects happen in a buyers market

The last time we had a buyers market, not much of anything was built at all.

 

[uto123]

If a price correction happens, which areas or buildings would be affected the most and which would be affected the least?
I'm not an expert, but condos in or near downtown core seem to be really overpriced.

 

[shal1n]

Doesn't matter if there are people waiting on the sidelines and have missed the boat.

The point is there is a significant % that own who will be insolvent with the slightest rise in rates or onset of a recession.

Oil is $30 handle and will likely hit $20 handle and below with the glut that is in the market.
There are a lot of Ontarions who worked or work in the oil patch (and send money home) who have lost their jobs are close to losing their jobs? Recession is coming and its not going to be pretty.

Those that bought homes at these elevated levels and have no margin of safety in terms of job security and income are going to be the driving force of the housing declines that will come.

Financial memory is very short.

 

[shal1n]

If a price correction happens, which areas or buildings would be affected the most and which would be affected the least?
I'm not an expert, but condos in or near downtown core seem to be really overpriced.

I expect across the board declines, especially in those properties that have run up the most. I think its going to be a process dragged on for a few years and not months. Its not going to be a quick drop and a quick bounce back. Once prices start to break the psychology will change. People who once viewed Canadian housing as invicible will be the very same who will be fearfull of buying despite significant declines.

Sycamore Networks, Blue Coat Systems, Sonus Networks, PMC-Sierra etc all use to trade in the hundreds of dollars.

 

[uto123]

I expect across the board declines, especially in those properties that have run up the most. I think its going to be a process dragged on for a few years and not months. Its not going to be a quick drop and a quick bounce back. Once prices start to break the psychology will change. People who once viewed Canadian housing as invicible will be the very same who will be fearfull of buying despite significant declines.

Sycamore Networks, Blue Coat Systems, Sonus Networks, PMC-Sierra etc all use to trade in the hundreds of dollars.

Do you think condos in or near downtown will be affected by a price correction or outside of the core such as North York, Richmond Hill, or Markham?
I hope that by the time I'm ready to buy a townhouse that there will still be new projects available in good communities after prices cool off.

 

[Rod]

Do you think condos in or near downtown will be affected by a price correction or outside of the core such as North York, Richmond Hill, or Markham?
I hope that by the time I'm ready to buy a townhouse that there will still be new projects available in good communities after prices cool off.

York Region would be hit first as indicators point they are 30% over valued.

 

[uto123]

York Region would be hit first as indicators point they are 30% over valued.

I'm looking at buying my first condo in Bayview, Fort York, or Old Mill (Toronto-side).
Which of these areas do you think would be most affected by price correction?

 

[RZ12]

I'm looking at buying my first condo in Bayview, Fort York, or Old Mill (Toronto-side).
Which of these areas do you think would be most affected by price correction?

Bayview is a long street need to be a bit more specific. Old-Mill is a very old neighborhood, a niche market tailored toward wealthy seniors who are setting up shop for retirement.Don't see too much chance of a severe price correction here as this is a place for downsizing. Fort York is close to the waterfront which is also close to Cityplace if a price correction were to occur. I'd say Fort York would be the first to go, but it's still very far from a price correction as prices are in line with market values and still very affordable compared to other parts in the city and the area is going in a positive direction.