Condo George
Active Member
hope you didnt bet the farm lol
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
interested
Senior Member
No. Just the condo.
Condo George
Active Member
Just sending out Calgary and Vancouver numbers for July to investors in a report format, its a bit dated, but here are the main points.....
Calgary....... Summer slowdown in Calgary market
- avg price for single home is $464,655, showing a 4% decrease from June 2010, but a 6% increase from July 2009
- avg price for condo was almost the same for June to July at $291,168 representing a 2% increase from same peroid last yr
Vancouver..... Charts a buyers market
- July was one of the slowest Julys over the past decade
- avg days on market is 45
- home prices, number of sales and the number of listed all trending downward
Calgary....... Summer slowdown in Calgary market
- avg price for single home is $464,655, showing a 4% decrease from June 2010, but a 6% increase from July 2009
- avg price for condo was almost the same for June to July at $291,168 representing a 2% increase from same peroid last yr
Vancouver..... Charts a buyers market
- July was one of the slowest Julys over the past decade
- avg days on market is 45
- home prices, number of sales and the number of listed all trending downward
Condo George
Active Member
respect that post
Condo George
Active Member
Toronto Maple Leafs and Toronto Raptors season close, should bring alot of potential interest to Maple Leaf Square, I run google ads and you would be surprised some dont know what Maple Leaf Square is all about, some think its just two towers in the sky, some dont know there are condos and office towers etc etc coming. Should be interesting to see how the area matures.
Rental update..... 18 for rent out of 900 units $1300 to $7500
www.mapleleafsquare.com
Rental update..... 18 for rent out of 900 units $1300 to $7500
www.mapleleafsquare.com
interested
Senior Member
George, tying you Calgary and Vancouver post together with some of your other posts in which you say all markets are local (which I agree with by the way; however within a larger context of the overall economy) and that Toronto should increase at least in your core area, can you please provide me with details as to why you come to that conclusion.
I am aware that you believe around ICE and MLS will do well. This may or may not be the case but in general why is Toronto downtown with its massive construction of condos over the past while going to do well when Vancouver and Calgary won't. I realize Calgary has to deal with $70-80 oil instead of $150 and a slow down and that Vancouver is very high priced (but it has been so for many years).
I am aware that you believe around ICE and MLS will do well. This may or may not be the case but in general why is Toronto downtown with its massive construction of condos over the past while going to do well when Vancouver and Calgary won't. I realize Calgary has to deal with $70-80 oil instead of $150 and a slow down and that Vancouver is very high priced (but it has been so for many years).
Condo George
Active Member
Main reasons......
International investors driving demand for Toronto
Well diversified job market, ( comp to Cal )
Strong immigration still coming in and not affecting unemployment rate
Avg price well below Vancouver
International investors driving demand for Toronto
Well diversified job market, ( comp to Cal )
Strong immigration still coming in and not affecting unemployment rate
Avg price well below Vancouver
Condo George
Active Member
One more, I usually multi task so bear with me with short form etc.....
Local investors in stocks and mutual funds etc and GIC ers look for higher returns and stability, some think real estate is a safer bet than stocks
Local investors in stocks and mutual funds etc and GIC ers look for higher returns and stability, some think real estate is a safer bet than stocks
Condo George
Active Member
Good point on Calgary Inte.... I stayed away from Calgary for that reason economy tied to nat gas and oil, but that was my mistake, I know guys that took the risk and made good money on apts in Calgary
daveto
Active Member
Toronto's price increases over the past 10 years have mirrored the nationwide price increases. So does your post above mean that you predict price decreases for the rest of the country? (because it lacks these Toronto specific supporting qualities?)
daveto
Active Member
A chart which purports to identify a 60 year bond cycle. Interesting stuff
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/60-year_cycle_in_interest_rates/
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/60-year_cycle_in_interest_rates/
interested
Senior Member
This reminds of a book I read about 25 years ago called power cycles. It essentially described the work of a Russian (economist if I recall correctly) who described a 50-60 year cycle.
The simple version is that there is 20-25 years of Growth phase (with a few minor recessions. 8-12 years of plateau and 20-25 years depression.
Suffice to say the last growth cycle was from about1950-1970 with plateau in 1970 to 1980 followed by "depression of the curve back towards the 50 year starting point" from 1980-2005 and we should be on the start up since about 2000. Well, we went up from 2000 to 2008 and then a major setback but things bounced back so this theory would describe a growth until 2020. As well, since one should be able to use the cycle to invest, since 1980 to 2000 were bad for the cycle, I would argue this did not work well at least in this cycle. Stocks went up massively from 1980 as did real estate.
The book was written by 2 brothers if I recall: Kirkland was their name. the book called 'power cycles" if anyone might be interested.
I believe this is the same sort of idea.
The simple version is that there is 20-25 years of Growth phase (with a few minor recessions. 8-12 years of plateau and 20-25 years depression.
Suffice to say the last growth cycle was from about1950-1970 with plateau in 1970 to 1980 followed by "depression of the curve back towards the 50 year starting point" from 1980-2005 and we should be on the start up since about 2000. Well, we went up from 2000 to 2008 and then a major setback but things bounced back so this theory would describe a growth until 2020. As well, since one should be able to use the cycle to invest, since 1980 to 2000 were bad for the cycle, I would argue this did not work well at least in this cycle. Stocks went up massively from 1980 as did real estate.
The book was written by 2 brothers if I recall: Kirkland was their name. the book called 'power cycles" if anyone might be interested.
I believe this is the same sort of idea.
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Condo George
Active Member
Dave.........I think the core condo market will buck the downward trend and far better than the overall market if we go down. The drivers for core condos are very different than housing types ( detached etc ) and the buyers buy reasons today have also come along way from the past. Just my opinion we shall see
Condo George
Active Member
Real Estate is supposed to be cyciical, thats what they were saying about the Trump Launch in 2004 , that 2004 was the turning year and then again in 2007 piggybacking on the US Downtick, we always follow the US is what the chatter on Bay St was about, I have put my head in front of the frieght train many times and been a contraian and it was at those times when the best opportunities presented themselves. The next few months will tell the tale, we have alot of negative waves today to contend with, looking forward to Spring 2011
interested
Senior Member
Being a contrarian can be very profitable. I recall John Paul Getty, the oil billionaire (Getty oil" being quoted about 30 years ago saying that he always had a very simple approach. I would sell if everyone wanted to buy and buy when everyone wanted to sell. He stated it in a very humble fashion to express that he viewed himself as a very simple man, despite amassing on the largest fortunes of its time in the US.
My only concern would be George putting your head in front of the freight train may have proven right in 2004 and again in 2007. I like you, don't know if it will prove correct in 2010. The only thing I know for reasonable certainty is that if you keep putting your head in front of the train, at some point you will get your head knocked off. Noone is always right (not even me LOL).
I think this time you may be at risk to have your head knocked off George. Twice a charm. 3rd time? (may be pushing your/ our collective luck.)
I rolled the dice in 2001,2007 and the beginning of 2008 this decade and bought condos (in the core) so I clearly don't wish a downturn but I still think we will retest 2007-2008 prices. I did sell 2 properties; 1 just before the peak in 2008 (which today would be 5-10% more but rapidly coming back to the level I sold at) and one in 2009 at the wrong time but I expect the 15% since then escalation in price has already given back about 5% recently. I should mention these were houses, not condos in the core
As you say, we shall see.
My only concern would be George putting your head in front of the freight train may have proven right in 2004 and again in 2007. I like you, don't know if it will prove correct in 2010. The only thing I know for reasonable certainty is that if you keep putting your head in front of the train, at some point you will get your head knocked off. Noone is always right (not even me LOL).
I think this time you may be at risk to have your head knocked off George. Twice a charm. 3rd time? (may be pushing your/ our collective luck.)
I rolled the dice in 2001,2007 and the beginning of 2008 this decade and bought condos (in the core) so I clearly don't wish a downturn but I still think we will retest 2007-2008 prices. I did sell 2 properties; 1 just before the peak in 2008 (which today would be 5-10% more but rapidly coming back to the level I sold at) and one in 2009 at the wrong time but I expect the 15% since then escalation in price has already given back about 5% recently. I should mention these were houses, not condos in the core
As you say, we shall see.
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