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Baby, we got a bubble!?

urbandreamer said:
When would I buy, if I was interested in presales? February 2011, during a snowstorm. $159-169k imho for a prime downtown 1 bedroom presale.:D
What's that about 16 year cycles?
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LOL, I doubt that will happen.... but if it does, please let me know as I will be in line willing to purchase. What's funny is even if prices drop to $170K there will be a group of people who will still claim that prices will drop down to $100K and buying is a huge mistake. ;)
 
JayBee said:
LOL, I doubt that will happen.... but if it does, please let me know as I will be in line willing to purchase. What's funny is even if prices drop to $170K there will be a group of people who will still claim that prices will drop down to $100K and buying is a huge mistake. ;)
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best post of the day
 
CN Tower said:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...op-for-first-time-in-16-years/article1660475/

Cheer up George- it's only money you've lost. Hopefully you're young enough to recover.
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This is what I am talking about when I say media manipulation.

What they didnt say in the article is what I posted yesterday, that Toronto Real Estate Board said the condo ytd numbers from Jan to June 30 were 2nd best only to the year 2000 being first. So they dip the last 3 months and we get a headline that you think I have lost money on, read the whole article, its not as bad as you may think

I dont see any money lost in this read, as a matter of fact , this to me is a pretty good article with bullish undertones.
 
Condo George said:
best post of the day
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I'm not picking sides here. I think no one really knows what will happen. Prices are deff inflated and should come down....by how much? Who knows? I think some people are fear mongering and others have their heads in the clouds.
 
Condo George said:
This is what I am talking about when I say media manipulation.

What they didnt say in the article is what I posted yesterday, that Toronto Real Estate Board said the condo ytd numbers from Jan to June 30 were 2nd best only to the year 2000 being first. So they dip the last 3 months and we get a headline that you think I have lost money on, read the whole article, its not as bad as you may think

I dont see any money lost in this read, as a matter of fact , this to me is a pretty good article with bullish undertones.
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Considering Urbanation is in bed with TREB that's not surprising. I would love to see the statistics that break down the Q2. Just going by the numbers we do know for April/May/June, it would mean that 80% of Q2 numbers came from April/May. As the year progresses, I agree with Interested - and keep in mind I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN - but CREA and TREB will have to revise their numbers down at least twice more and we'll end up with much lower numbers than last year and because we'll start comparing year over year numbers by November, I'm expecting it to show a price decrease. As we all know, prices have already dropped 5% by November, from the April peak, I'm guessing we'll be looking at at least 10% and by next June probably 15%. If numbers go back down to around $450/ft in the core (a roughly 20% drop from peak), I'll jump back in with two hands, two feet, and I'll even glue a tail on!
 
[QUOTE]Condo sales in Toronto drop for first time in 16 years[/QUOTE]

Sales dropped last year, ( then went back down ). The globe article is not accurate.
 
Condo George said:
...
One bedrooms dont come with parking that I sell, you have to buy a one and den to get the parking, typically one beds are around 500 to 525 :psq ft
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simuls said:
... As we all know, prices have already dropped 5% by November, from the April peak, I'm guessing we'll be looking at at least 10% and by next June probably 15%. If numbers go back down to around $450/ft in the core (a roughly 20% drop from peak), I'll jump back in with two hands, two feet, and I'll even glue a tail on!
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i'm forecasting a 25-30% decrease from peak within 4 years, then 2 more years of stagnant prices.
it's not just prices that i hope to see change, but also an extinction of the the sub-compact 500 SF 1 bedroom units and linear kitchens.
unit sizes and floorplan designs went to crap around 2005/2006 once prices breached $300 PSF in Toronto
 
cdr108 said:
i'm forecasting a 25-30% decrease from peak within 4 years, then 2 more years of stagnant prices.
it's not just prices that i hope to see change, but also an extinction of the the sub-compact 500 SF 1 bedroom units and linear kitchens.
unit sizes and floorplan designs went to crap around 2005/2006 once prices breached $300 PSF in Toronto
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As a worst case scenario, you may very well be correct. Although I would add that if we do see this it will mostly be felt in bachelor, 1 bed and 1+ units as they represent probably 85% of stock and the supply is vastly going to exceed demand. Also all those people currently in them will eventually want to move to a house or a larger unit, so I think we might even see a stratification happening where larger units either a) don't lose as much percent wise, b) even gain a little, or c) remain at their current prices.

On a completely different note, - you have such a hate-on for the linear kitchens!! My new condo has an L shaped kitchen with an island and I absolute hate it and would much rather the linear and island I used to have. I think linears look sleek and are functional and easy to make disappear. Even if I have a 4000 sq. ft place, I'm putting a linear kitchen in it. Anything else just looks like a builders home in the suburbs.
 
simuls said:
On a completely different note, - you have such a hate-on for the linear kitchens!! My new condo has an L shaped kitchen with an island and I absolute hate it and would much rather the linear and island I used to have. I think linears look sleek and are functional and easy to make disappear. Even if I have a 4000 sq. ft place, I'm putting a linear kitchen in it. Anything else just looks like a builders home in the suburbs.
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LOL ... yes i do ... a linear kitchen needs at least 12 linear feet to accommodate a R/sink/D-W/O and provide very little storage or counter space unless an island is added, but then 12 ft x 7 ft of RE is taken up negating the 'space saving' aspect developers market ; while an L-shaped kitchen, which is more ergonomic, can accommodate the same set up in 10 ft x 7 ft space [8 ft x 7 ft if you really want to push it]
 
LOL, I hate linear kitchens too...but a lot of people seem to like em and they make sense with smaller units...so I think the linear kitchens are here to stay. I don't buy the notion that people will want to move into houses thus making smaller units less desirable. I also don't see builders all of a sudden deciding to make larger units and doing away with linear kitchens just because the market is in the shitter either. Small units will always be popular for many reasons...

a) affordability
b) pied a terre for people who live outside of the city/country
c) compared to many large cities, 500sf is pretty large

Not everyone wants to live in a house
Not everyone wants to live in the burbs
Not everyone hates linear kitchens
Not everyone hates windowless bedrooms.
Not everyone hates shoebox units.


The majority of my friends 29-35 all live alone... even the ones in serious relationships. I'd say just about all of em own a condo and they like the lifestyle. There's a growing number of single people who don't plan on getting married or are getting married much later. For the amount of people that move out of the downtown core, there are others who will take their place.

Just my 2 cents
 
My 2 cents. I don't think the small units will disappear since they are the defacto rental supply in the core and the majority of renters are price conscious and will chose the cheapest rent which will mean the smallest unit(given that a functional design will rent faster than a non functional one all other things being equal presumably.
Also, unless people wish a "room mate situation", larger units will in fact be too expensive for alot of single renters.

While I believe prices are already dropping and will go down to 2007 2008 levels and stay there for a couple of years as well, I do not believe we will see $350/sq.ft. unless as previous posters have said there remains a major meltdown: no economic recovery over 3-5 years, stock market double dip and interest rate hikes of significant proportions (say at least 4% increase or more from present levels). This is just a guestimate on my part and not based on actual economic data(the 4%) so I may well be out to lunch with it.
 
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