Johnzz
Active Member
I would ascribe the likelihood as "probable", not 100%.
This old sailor senses very rough financial seas ahead. Now is certainly not the time to put all eggs in one basket!
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
I would ascribe the likelihood as "probable", not 100%.
This old sailor senses very rough financial seas ahead. Now is certainly not the time to put all eggs in one basket!
daveto
Active Member
June midmonth figures are out.
4,139 of sales at an avg of $437k. (compare to May midmonth sales of 4,887 at an avg of $449k). Lower figures June compared to May than for most previous years, but nothing dramatic.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2010/pdf/nr_mid_month_0610.pdf
4,139 of sales at an avg of $437k. (compare to May midmonth sales of 4,887 at an avg of $449k). Lower figures June compared to May than for most previous years, but nothing dramatic.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2010/pdf/nr_mid_month_0610.pdf
interested
Senior Member
June midmonth figures are out.
4,139 of sales at an avg of $437k. (compare to May midmonth sales of 4,887 at an avg of $449k). Lower figures June compared to May than for most previous years, but nothing dramatic.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2010/pdf/nr_mid_month_0610.pdf
Dave,
The interesting thing with this data is the huge increase in llisting, adding almost a month more listing than what is selling. Last number I saw was 6 months inventory so I am guessing it is now closer to 7 months.
Prices were rising last year at this time so the year on year increase will continue to drop if this trend continues and by year end the report will say prices are dropping. I would expectr the Toronto Real Estate Board to change how it reports and will say something like "the average compared to last years average is up a few percent rather than comparing it to the same month of the previous year" or at least quantifying this data together with the year on year data.
the fact is inventory is spiking, prices are levelling off/dropping (can't say for sure with 1 month data but I am quite sure this is a trend but time will tell) and those who buy now, especially condos in the core with $100/sq. ft of "anticipated price increases" from now to completion are certainly I feel playing a very risky game.
Thank you for supplying this information.
simuls
Senior Member
Listings up another 21%, sales down 20%...and June of last year wasn't even crazy yet. Just wait until we see the craziness of last August - November compared to this year. I bet listings will be 60% more (total) and sales 50% less. We'll also start comparing prices and those will also start showing a drop probably in the area of 5% and then it will get worse month to month until end 2011.
interested
Senior Member
Listings up another 21%, sales down 20%...and June of last year wasn't even crazy yet. Just wait until we see the craziness of last August - November compared to this year. I bet listings will be 60% more (total) and sales 50% less. We'll also start comparing prices and those will also start showing a drop probably in the area of 5% and then it will get worse month to month until end 2011.
Agree this is distinctly possible and probable. It will definately look worse by virtue of the over response of the market in latter 2009.
I expect we will retest the lows of 2008 (price wise) in early 2011.
KA1
Senior Member
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/in-vancouver-the-third-wave-hits/article1607761/
A link to an article on The Globe and Mail's web site about buyers from mainland China buying luxury properties in Vancouver -- a third wave as the article has stated.
I have noticed 2 assignment listings of condos at 80 Yorkville at $ 1000/sq.ft.
It seems that 'luxury' market is still vibrant, alive and well.
A link to an article on The Globe and Mail's web site about buyers from mainland China buying luxury properties in Vancouver -- a third wave as the article has stated.
I have noticed 2 assignment listings of condos at 80 Yorkville at $ 1000/sq.ft.
It seems that 'luxury' market is still vibrant, alive and well.
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interested
Senior Member
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/in-vancouver-the-third-wave-hits/article1607761/
A link to an article on The Globe and Mail's web site about buyers from mainland China buying luxury properties in Vancouver -- a third wave as the article has stated.
I have noticed 2 assignment listings of condos at 80 Yorkville at i$ 1000/sq.ft.
It seems that 'luxury' market is still vibrant, alive and well.
Just because there are assignment listings, let's see if they sell and at what price. I am not sure one can conclude that the luxury market is still vibrant and alive at least in Toronto based on the information in the article. As well, Yorkville has always commanded a premium in the past few decades.
My concern with the article is that if there is a strong pull back in China, people I believe will let go of 2nd and 3rd homes. Again, is there enough interest in Vancouver besides this group if their situation changes to support where the prices are being bid up to. I just believe relying on waves from China is inherently unstable to sustain the market. I am also not sure one can extrapolate Vancouver to Toronto though alot of Chinese come to Toronto as well though not in the numbers that go to Vancouver relatively.
simuls
Senior Member
Vancouver's drop will be even more precipitous and that town's real estate bubble will end up popping a lot faster and farther because it's so overshot every fundamental possible. It's probably the closest city Canada has that might see a correction ala Las Vegas or Phoenix.
In Toronto, condo rents are also down about 20% apparently as places like Maple Leaf Residences are fetching much less than anticipated. Also a bad sign.
In Toronto, condo rents are also down about 20% apparently as places like Maple Leaf Residences are fetching much less than anticipated. Also a bad sign.
myfive
Active Member
In Toronto, condo rents are also down about 20% apparently as places like Maple Leaf Residences are fetching much less than anticipated. Also a bad sign.
maybe people don't want to live there.
KA1
Senior Member
Vancouver's drop will be even more precipitous and that town's real estate bubble will end up popping a lot faster and farther because it's so overshot every fundamental possible. It's probably the closest city Canada has that might see a correction ala Las Vegas or Phoenix.
In Toronto, condo rents are also down about 20% apparently as places like Maple Leaf Residences are fetching much less than anticipated. Also a bad sign.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rs-sell-start-renting-instead/article1608650/
A link to an article in today's The Globe and Mail about rents in downtown Toronto shooting up.
myfive
Active Member
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rs-sell-start-renting-instead/article1608650/
A link to an article in today's The Globe and Mail about rents in downtown Toronto shooting up.
Yes...this has been my observation. Many people are saying they can't find a place to rent (such as people waiting for thier condo to be built). Landlords are not even knocking $50 off the rental price if someone offers less. I work with a girl that is paying 2300/mth rent, and she offered 2250 and the guy said no...so she had to pay it. Others can't find places. It is very tight.
In my new building, CASA, small one bedrooms rent for 1500, studios 1300 and my one plus one for 1700. And they rent very quickly the agent told me. All the investors that wanted to rent their units at CASA did so fairly quickly...and there were dozens of units!
There is still quite a shortage of desireable units in the city.
interested
Senior Member
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rs-sell-start-renting-instead/article1608650/
A link to an article in today's The Globe and Mail about rents in downtown Toronto shooting up.
this is interesting. I am not sure how accurate this is and I don't believe it represents the smaller units. Perhaps 1 bedroom den, and esp. 2 bedroom or 2 bedroom/dens may hold up.
Jamie Johnson of remaxcondosplus has just posted his monthly blog and in suggests rents have dropped since the beginning of the year and that landlords with tenants should hold the rent and not increase going forward.
I think the difference may be that the condo market in downtown may be fracturing with an excess of small units 600 sq. ft and less and a paucity of 800+sq.ft units.
interested
Senior Member
Yes...this has been my observation. Many people are saying they can't find a place to rent (such as people waiting for thier condo to be built). Landlords are not even knocking $50 off the rental price if someone offers less. I work with a girl that is paying 2300/mth rent, and she offered 2250 and the guy said no...so she had to pay it. Others can't find places. It is very tight.
In my new building, CASA, small one bedrooms rent for 1500, studios 1300 and my one plus one for 1700. And they rent very quickly the agent told me. All the investors that wanted to rent their units at CASA did so fairly quickly...and there were dozens of units!
There is still quite a shortage of desireable units in the city.
My five: I think this is the residual effect of not that many projects being completed now. However, I understand that there are alot of units coming on line in the latter half of this year and in 2011.
Please see my post to KA1. I think shortly there will be an excess of small units. that said, there will be building to building variation in desirability and I think Casa for the same money would be more desirable than Maple Leaf Residences. Also, there are 2 very tall towers with twice as many units as Casa I believe and alot of investors. I am not sure how much the relative proportions are but i am guessing perhaps Maple Leaf Residences have more investors than end users vis a vis Casa, hence there may be less for rent in Casa.
myfive
Active Member
My five: I think this is the residual effect of not that many projects being completed now. However, I understand that there are alot of units coming on line in the latter half of this year and in 2011.
Please see my post to KA1. I think shortly there will be an excess of small units. that said, there will be building to building variation in desirability and I think Casa for the same money would be more desirable than Maple Leaf Residences. Also, there are 2 very tall towers with twice as many units as Casa I believe and alot of investors. I am not sure how much the relative proportions are but i am guessing perhaps Maple Leaf Residences have more investors than end users vis a vis Casa, hence there may be less for rent in Casa.
Somebody said earlier there was a 20% drop in rental rates, i was responding to that for the most part.
interested
Senior Member
Somebody said earlier there was a 20% drop in rental rates, i was responding to that for the most part.
I don't know if that was me. I believe rents may drop anywhere from 5-20%. More likely I think 10%-15% readjustment by next year from the January peak this year or about $100-$150/month on a $1500-$2000 rental (going to $1350-$1800 respectively). Of course, I don't have a crystal ball so...... I don't believe I ever mentioned an actual rate previously but I am quite convinced with the additional product coming on, rents will drop. Alot of product hit the market in 2004-2005 and rents I believe were lower than in 2001-2002.
I am talking about the downtown Toronto condo market just to specify.