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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Boy oh boy is Vancouver's market going to get UGLY!!

As for Toronto, I'm readjusting my forecast and calling for a drop of 25% on condo prices - especially units of less than 700 sq. ft. This will start in the next 6 months and take until 2012 to hit bottom - most likely 3rd quarter...just for S&G's.
 
Here's the only wild card--in the stock market, whenever a stock hits a "7" number it's more likely to run to "10" before it falls back. So Toronto's PSF price, like Vancouver's, could possibly run to $1000PSF average before a pullback to the fib range of $650PSF. Other than that technicality, I agree a nasty drop will occur.
 
As for prices dropping...when do you see them coming back up to where they are now? 3 years? 5 years? 10?
 
RBC just raised rates... again. The new posted 5-year fixed rate is 6.1%, starting with RBC tomorrow. This means that as of next week, people seeking out a new mortgages will have to qualify at 6.1%, instead of the 5.25% just two weeks ago, regardless of the actual rate they're setting up the mortgage with.

That should put a bit of a damper on home prices, eventually at least.

Aren't you missing something?

That 6.1% qualification is for people seeking CMHC-insured mortgages which are either variable-rate or fixed-rate of less than 5 years.
 
I believe the new rule of qualifying for the 5 years applies for any mortgage regardless if you are applying for CMHC or not.

That being said there is a loop hole, If people go for a 5 year rate and get the current discounted rate of about 4.6% they do not need to meet the posted rate of 6.1% requirement.
 
I believe the new rule of qualifying for the 5 years applies for any mortgage regardless if you are applying for CMHC or not.

That being said there is a loop hole, If people go for a 5 year rate and get the current discounted rate of about 4.6% they do not need to meet the posted rate of 6.1% requirement.

I believe it is correct that the banks are applying the new qualification rate to both CMHC and non-CMHC mortgages. However, this is not the case with non-bank lenders.

I'm quoting from here http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.c...s/2010/04/new-mortgage-rules-start-today.html
 
Here's the only wild card--in the stock market, whenever a stock hits a "7" number it's more likely to run to "10" before it falls back. So Toronto's PSF price, like Vancouver's, could possibly run to $1000PSF average before a pullback to the fib range of $650PSF. Other than that technicality, I agree a nasty drop will occur.

Problem is, Toronto's 7 was hit at $500/ft - we're now commanding $700-$800 in areas that have no business commanding that, so we've already hit our 10.
 
I believe the new rule of qualifying for the 5 years applies for any mortgage regardless if you are applying for CMHC or not.

That being said there is a loop hole, If people go for a 5 year rate and get the current discounted rate of about 4.6% they do not need to meet the posted rate of 6.1% requirement.

Ok, fair enough. But that's a BIG loop hole. Because most people buying places at this point (rather than refinancing) - first time homebuyers or not - are going to go for a 5 year fixed rate mortgage. They will qualify at 4.6% and they'll get 4.6%. Easy peasy.

What about 5 year fixed rate mortgage WITH CMHC insurance? Are those guys in the same boat as the 5 year fixed rate mortgage with 20%+ downpayment?
 
Anyone who has tried to refinance or finance a residential investment property right now knows that lending conditions are becoming very tight. Large banks will essentially no longer do equity loans. It's income or nothing and they don't like investment income and frankly they would rather not do business with you if you invest at all.
 
Yes, complex, because the rules aren't being applied evenly. For personal mortgages for your primary home:

1. The new rule requiring qualification at the POSTED 5-year rate officially applies only to those with less than 20% downpayment, and if the term is 4 years or less (or variable).
2. However, the major banks are applying this across the board. Even if you have 50% equity in the home, you still have to qualify at the posted 5-year rate if your term is 4 years or less (or variable).
3. However, this more stringent rule used by the major banks is NOT being adopted by some of the smaller lenders.
4. Places like ING don't even have higher posted rates. Their 4.59% 5-year fixed rate is their "posted" rate. They have no 6.1% rate at all, so who knows how they qualify people. One thing they might do is just qualify everyone at the 4.59% 5-year rate I'm guessing.
5. If the term is 5 years, then whatever special rate you get for a fixed, is what you're qualified at. So you'll qualify for more money with a 5-year fixed than with a 4-year fixed, because with the 4-year fixed you have to qualify at the higher posted rate. Thus there is incentive to choose a 5-year term.

So, in some ways, for primary homes, these rules aren't as super restrictive as they could have been, but they're good enough IMO to slow things down. More important IMO are the increased rules for investment properties.

P.S. Despite all this push for 5-year terms, I just locked into a 3-year fixed last month. ;)
 
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Canadian housing market correction in the cards, says economist
April 23, 2010 Tony Wong
BUSINESS REPORTER

Perhaps, but they've been 'Wong' before!

If Rosie is so certain of this outcome then he should be meeting with GS (not his employers, the real GS) now to structure himself a monster CDO short on Canadian subprime mortgage debt a la John Paulson. I'm sure there's a fractional amount of it floating around out there still. C'mon Rosie, put your money where your mouth is!
 
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