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Baby, we got a bubble!?

BrianPersaud said:
There is more Upward pressure on rents:
- HST
- Recent cmhc changes will mean fewer units available for rent (this includes houses and condos)
- Property tax increases
- Tenants can afford an increase
- Most renters who can afford are buying now, so what's going to be left are new residents that almost always rent, and people who are going to stay in the rental market.
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- HST
- Recent cmhc changes will mean fewer units available for rent (this includes houses and condos)
- Property tax increases
Click to expand...
These imply an increase in expenses, not an increase in rents. Rents are set at the market convergence of supply and demand. An increase in operating costs does not increase demand for rental apartments.

- Tenants can afford an increase
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huh?


- Most renters who can afford are buying now, so what's going to be left are new residents that almost always rent, and people who are going to stay in the rental market.
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Perhaps, but they will have infinitely more choices (ie supply) and again demand will remain relatively stagnant.

It's hard to argue for anything but a drop or stagnation for rents for the foreseeable future. It may not register directly in falling rents but rather in 1/2 months of free rent, rental incentives etc.
 
CN Tower said:
These imply an increase in expenses, not an increase in rents. Rents are set at the market convergence of supply and demand. An increase in operating costs does not increase demand for rental apartments.



huh?




Perhaps, but they will have infinitely more choices (ie supply) and again demand will remain relatively stagnant.

It's hard to argue for anything but a drop or stagnation for rents for the foreseeable future. It may not register directly in falling rents but rather in 1/2 months of free rent, rental incentives etc.
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That will make DT living more accessisible...not necessarily a bad thing. Cheap rent means more young professionals can settle / move in to dt core and make Toronto a more exciting space.

I am all for cheap rent although I am a landlord.

i rent for people and their creative uses of the space, not for money....as long as I cover my bills...which is still easy in Toronto
 
Hi there, i'm looking for some advice regarding when it's best to buy a condo in the next year or so. Wasn't sure where to post so I'm trying here...

Basically here's where we are at - we currently own a big house in a good area that we need to sell ASAP - and we're happy with that, it's a good time to sell. However, we are looking at buying a different type or property - either condo or smaller townhouse in either downtown Toronto or the Beaches area.

The dilemma is here: we'll have a high mortgage penalty that we'd like to avoid by potentially purchasing another property and porting the mortgage. However, there's a 4-month limit condition for porting the mortgage. So, assuming we sell end of April with end of July closing date that would force us to purchase a condo/townhouse with a closing date before the end of November.

Would that be a good time frame to purchase a condo: May - October this year? From what I read so far interest rates are going up in June so it's better to purchase let's say May-June but what I'm not sure about is condo prices. Many are saying that they'll go down but when does it start, if ever? is is going to last for at least half a year? is it going to happen at all?

Any advice is highly appreeciated. Thanks!
 
light play said:
Hi there, i'm looking for some advice regarding when it's best to buy a condo in the next year or so. Wasn't sure where to post so I'm trying here...

Basically here's where we are at - we currently own a big house in a good area that we need to sell ASAP - and we're happy with that, it's a good time to sell. However, we are looking at buying a different type or property - either condo or smaller townhouse in either downtown Toronto or the Beaches area.

The dilemma is here: we'll have a high mortgage penalty that we'd like to avoid by potentially purchasing another property and porting the mortgage. However, there's a 4-month limit condition for porting the mortgage. So, assuming we sell end of April with end of July closing date that would force us to purchase a condo/townhouse with a closing date before the end of November.

Would that be a good time frame to purchase a condo: May - October this year? From what I read so far interest rates are going up in June so it's better to purchase let's say May-June but what I'm not sure about is condo prices. Many are saying that they'll go down but when does it start, if ever? is is going to last for at least half a year? is it going to happen at all?

Any advice is highly appreeciated. Thanks!
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well this new west beaches condo starts at $119,900, can't beat that: http://selloffcondo.com/
Good luck~!
 
simuls said:
"West Beaches" is that what they're calling Etobicoke now??!! Will wonders never cease. That's almost as bad as Loggia at Kipling/Queensway calling itself downtown west! haha
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I got really excited there for a second for west beaches. Can you call that area Etobicoke City Centre? it sounds nicer
 
thanks very much azureray but i didn't really ask for advice regarding where to buy (i think i have all that figured out by now) but WHEN? :)

now, next 3 months? 6? 12?

this was my question:

Would that be a good time frame to purchase a condo: May - October this year? From what I read so far interest rates are going up in June so it's better to purchase let's say May-June but what I'm not sure about is condo prices. Many are saying that they'll go down but when does it start, if ever? is is going to last for at least half a year? is it going to happen at all?
Click to expand...

thanks
 
There has been forecast around for the real estate market this year. So if you believe the forecast as below:

WHAT TO DO IN 2010
1) What are driving prices in this market are NOT cheap mortgage rates but rather a lack of listings and a race by buyers to purchase before the HST! Again this year will be made up of two markets. The first half of the year will be a sellers' market. SELLERS should list NOW or be prepared to wait until 2011.
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http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/report-display.php?id=121&report_date=1262581200

So pros and cons, on the safe side, to sell earlier will ensure the earnings in your house - when it is still in seller's market but may end up purchasing high in condo.

Or sell later to ensure a better position when purchasing condo but you are risking your seller's position for the current house

Ideally if you will have time to monitor all the listing houses around your current community, to watch for the sign of the trend from seller's market to buyer's, then to push your listing date as close as to the mid year will be the best you can do.

All hypothetic based on the forecast!
 
Last edited:
* The economic news of the past month supports our 2010 U.S. growth forecast of 3.4%. Our optimism is based on a shift of support for the economy from the public to the private sector. We are confident that domestic demand will firm in the months ahead.
* The pace of the Canadian economy is quickening. Employment growth remains strong, with the private sector adding 100,000 jobs in three months. Hours worked began the year in strength, auguring the steepest quarterly rise of labour input since 2007. The stage is set for robust Canadian growth in the coming quarters.

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental...y-economic-monitor-march-2010/2010-03-02.html


March 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Canada will probably keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low today and economists say policy makers may point to a faster-than-expected economic recovery to signal potential increases later this year.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ing-rate-at-0-25-signal-coming-increases.html
 
azureray said:
* The economic news of the past month supports our 2010 U.S. growth forecast of 3.4%. Our optimism is based on a shift of support for the economy from the public to the private sector. We are confident that domestic demand will firm in the months ahead.
* The pace of the Canadian economy is quickening. Employment growth remains strong, with the private sector adding 100,000 jobs in three months. Hours worked began the year in strength, auguring the steepest quarterly rise of labour input since 2007. The stage is set for robust Canadian growth in the coming quarters.

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental...y-economic-monitor-march-2010/2010-03-02.html


March 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Canada will probably keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low today and economists say policy makers may point to a faster-than-expected economic recovery to signal potential increases later this year.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ing-rate-at-0-25-signal-coming-increases.html
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“The worst is over without a doubt.â€
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
- June 1930

“We have hit bottom and are on the upswing.â€
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
-September 12, 1930

SCHWAB FORESEES RECORD PROSPERITY;
-October 25, 1930

“The depression has ended.â€
Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.
- June 9, 1931

http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/great-depression-quotes-1929-vs-2008-have-we-learned-anything/
 
daveto said:
“The worst is over without a doubt.”
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
- June 1930

“We have hit bottom and are on the upswing.”
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
-September 12, 1930

SCHWAB FORESEES RECORD PROSPERITY;
-October 25, 1930

“The depression has ended.”
Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.
- June 9, 1931

http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/great-depression-quotes-1929-vs-2008-have-we-learned-anything/
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"to be prepared for danger in times of peace; to be vigilant in peace time; to provide against danger while living in peace。 to repair the house before it rains; to provide for a rainy day; to take precautions before it is too late; to play the percentages; to make providence" - Laozi
 
azureray said:

"to be prepared for danger in times of peace; to be vigilant in peace time; to provide against danger while living in peace。 to repair the house before it rains; to provide for a rainy day; to take precautions before it is too late; to play the percentages; to make providence" - Laozi
Click to expand...

"She sells sea shells by the sea shore"-anon.
 
daveto said:
"She sells sea shells by the sea shore"-anon.
Click to expand...

Dave and Azureray:
This is your mother speaking. "Play Nice".

Joking aside, Dave your points are well taken. that those around in 1930 after the stock market crash of 1929 failed to appreciate the depths of the depression lasting in the early 1930's. However, Azureray clearly believes that the worst is behind us. I hope azureray is correct but that said I believe things are nowhere near as rosy as is portrayed from the few bits of data suggested here. this is a classic case of choosing data to support your position. Are things better than late 2008: definately. Has all the stimulus billions in the US and what is still to come in Canada improved things. Probably. Will it continue after the stimulus is being withdrawn: Maybe. Is there cause for fret/caution. Definately.

I think the answer to the question of whether to sell now or later is subject of an educated guess. X2 Buyer points to the r/e forecasts. their past predictions have hardly been stellar. That said, there are logical reasons to believe that there is some demand being brought forward now prior to rate hikes and the HST and that may be followed by some weakness. If LightPlay needs to money then I think it is safest for him to sell now. Easier to talk about the additional money you did not make than the shortfall you actually got by waiting. The risk is you get caught on the offside of the bet and have to buy a condo at year end and if the predictions are wrong, pay more. The safe thing is to find a product or 2 he likes while his is on the market and do both transactions. If LightPlay has the money, he can afford to chance it and then I would believe that he would be reasonably safe to wait on the condo purchase but personally i would look at selling the house now. I hope this is of some help to Light PLay.
 
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