Baby, we got a bubble!?

[interested]

CN Tower, an interesting observation.
I too wonder whether the wealthier (as it requires a fair amount of money to buy a $1mill-$2 mill property or more) who live in the City have concluded what you say and prefer a house, or maybe if they have that kind of money just opt for Yorkville as being more livable than the downtown core. For 2nd homes unless out of country these Ritz units are large and definitely hence expensive in absolute dollar terms.

I can only speak personally and will be trying living at SL as a principal residence. However, I am not a 100% sure that I will be willing to forgo living in a house and second of all. I chose SL because I did not like Ritz for location and other reasons, and Trump is just wedged in between bank towers. At least SL was in a more open location. I also bought a smaller unit at 1100 sq.ft. (1 bedroom/den) and figured that I could always use it as a "pied a terre".

It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. I suspect Ritz will have a few sales in the $700's/sq.ft. and then those with staying power will hold out for more thereby increasing the price to the $800 -900 again. That said, this has surely got to impact the rest of downtown mid range product for larger units, if not for the smaller units which are a different market.

As well, some have posted that the quality of workmanship at the Ritz leaves something to be desired. I hope that won't be the case at SL, but I guess time will tell.

 

[PinkLucy]

Totally anecdotal and personal, but I love living in a condo after almost 30 years of maintaining a house. We chose the waterfront area because it's accessible to all the city has to offer but isn't full of concrete, so we find it very liveable -- at least, it suits our lifestyle! We "practiced" with a pied a terre for a few years before making the decision Interestingly, our next-door neighbour bought for virtually the same reasons, and we've spoken to a few other building residents who've also done the same thing.

 

[drewp]

Agree but the reason is clear. There are about 28 units for resale. They are large units. So even if the $730/sq.ft. was a 1500 sq.ft. unit that is over a Million. If it was one of the 2000+ sq.ft. units, closer to 1.5million.

The real question is becomes if this is true value then what is the value of all the product coming to market of mid level quality asking $700-800/sq.ft. Of course, it is a different thing to pay $730 or $780/sq.ft. for 500 vs. 1500 or 2000 sq.ft. as we are still talking about 3 to 4x the price.



We must also remember that some of the very early buyers in Ritz were buying in 2005 or 2006 and I know someone who bought a large unit from builder at the pre "vip" and paid in the $500's/sq.ft. at that time. So if they were to sell at $750 for what was a 2000+ sq.ft. unit; there is still $400-500K profit. However, this is definitely concerning.

drewp, could you please specify the price or the size of the units and what floors they were on.

I agree it bodes badly for Trump and SL and probably even 4S, but also for a number of luxury buildings already around.

Also drewp, could you comment if you think this is a "Ritz" problem or is this a harbinger of the "end" of the luxury market and with it, a subsequent decline for the rest of the markets as the price deflation would work its way down?

And to Ka1; one has to wonder if Ritz is getting mid $700's/sq.ft what would Aura exec floors and the rest be worth now, especially if one has say a 1500 sq.ft. unit at Aura; or for that matter at SL?[/QUOTE

]Unfortunately I cannot provide specific details to a public forum because of privacy issues. One has sold conditional listed at 739 a square foot and the other one is firm at 788 a square foot. There was one at 1800+ and 2200+ square feet. I hope that helps.

Interested I already commented on Ritz, and all I can say is that is has not lived up to the hype. The market dictates price, and this is a clear indication the market has spoken. I think some investors are now unloading this units now because of all the negative criticsm Trump has faced as well. So far the media has not been to kind to the Condo/Hotel segment.

Also I think something to keep in mind is additional expenses that come with owning a Condo/Hotel unit. Maintenance fees are more that 90 cents a square foot, where as Condos are around 52 cents a square foot, plus property taxes are assessed differently. This impacts resale value as well. I think Aura can command 750 if not more a square foot because additional expenses will be on par with the rest of the market. The Condo/Hotel is a specific market with a limited buyer pool. So far the pool of buyers have chosen to live elsewhere.

 

[interested]

Thanks drewp.

I agree a 100% with your comment about condo fees. Ritz was supposed to come in at 80 cents but in fact came in at around 94 cents now. That was a big reason for my buying at SL. 54 cents for residences vs. Estates at 75 cents when Ritz was 80. I figure I may be at 70 cents. Also, unit is smaller size and hence condo fees not so bad. That said, I think most upper range product is closer to 60 cents now.
Trump is a very different animal than Ritz SL and 4S as I have pointed out before. The additional property taxes will apply to the hotel units at Trump. There are not hotel units at the other 3 projects.
I will watch with great intrigue what happens at SL. I am quite excited to actually try it out. That said, the market for 2000 sq.ft. units is not the same as for 500-1000 sq.ft. units, even if the price is the same/sq.ft., you are talking about a doubling of price and a very different market.

 

[drewp]

I think 4 Seasons will set the bar, just from what I have heard from my peers and my Dad. I think since we can only compare to Ritz right now, this is not giving us a good idea of what this segment will be like.

I agree it is hard to compare between a 600 square foot and a 2000 square foot Condo. That is why sometimes basing things on price per square foot is not always an indicator of what things can sell for. There are too many factors to consider which is lost when a product is marketed based on buzz and not other determining factors.

I can't wait until you move in, I expect pictures!!!

 

[KA1]

[I think Aura can command 750 if not more a square foot because additional expenses will be on par with the rest of the market. The Condo/Hotel is a specific market with a limited buyer pool. So far the pool of buyers have chosen to live elsewhere.

drewp, a follow up question, if I may.

There are two(2) components of AURA -- ordinary floors upto floor 54 and Executive/sub-penthouse/penthouse floors from 55 to 75. At the time of signing, executive floor units were $150psf higher than lower floors. Estimated price of $750psf that you have referred to, presumably, applies to lower floors? That being so, then, estimated current price of Executive floor units will be higher. Is that so?

Txs in advance.

 

[interested]

drewp, a follow up question, if I may.

There are two(2) components of AURA -- ordinary floors upto floor 54 and Executive/sub-penthouse/penthouse floors from 55 to 75. At the time of signing, executive floor units were $150psf higher than lower floors. Estimated price of $750psf that you have referred to, presumably, applies to lower floors? That being so, then, estimated current price of Executive floor units will be higher. Is that so?

Txs in advance.

I will read this answer with intrigue too. Allowing drewp's comments that Ritz may have been a disappointment, I would be very surprised to read that Aura exec floors for higher end would exceed prices or even compare to SL or Trump or 4S for similar product. If it does, then Ka1 you were brilliant to buy where you did and not only would the condo/hotel idea be an absolute failure, but even more so, it would suggest having a 5 star hotel takes a luxury condo to a value below an upper-middle condo.
I really doubt that will be the case.
I guess we will know soon enough.
My suspicion is a lot of people bought a name in the Ritz and in Trump. At the 4S, they get a name and location(Yorkville).
I am not as sure with SL as it is not as well known here. However, I would love to know what percentage of SL bought as investment and further whether they will be "dumping" en masse.

 

[drewp]

Here is an intersting article about Ritz

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1121611

I base price per square foot on what prices are selling for in the immediate area. Lumiere and College park are selling from 650-750 a square foot. I might be a bit conservative on my valuations because speculation is a term investors, Agents and Builders like to use. I base a lot of my information on facts and patterns. I think KAI based on what you said your view better be a million dollar view. If so you can command close to 100 more a square foot than 750 per square foot average. I say that because views and I mean unobstructed views which are scarce nowadays are at a premium. Remember builders price there units in very controlled ways. They will price 1000-2000 dollars per floor but does not mean you will see that return when you sell it. Currently I would say with a good view I would say close to 800 a square foot. One thing to consider as well is 35 Balmuto (Uptown Residences) is pricing their units at around 750-900 a square foot. One bedroom just sold for 760 a square foot. Realistically Uptown will command 800 a square foot, but a lot of the units don't have the greatest of views. I had a person contact me to list there place. They told me that someone who works for the builder said they can list for well over 800 a square foot. Based on what he was told he said that he would like to list his 715 square foot one bedroom plus den at over $600000 with no parking or locker. I had to give them the bad news that it is not worth that amount. My point is sometimes people who are associated with the projects tend to overvaluate because it is what they do, or what they are told to do. KAI because you are on a higher floor you have the luxury to see what the lower floors price their units to give you a better idea of what you can command. Remember I am basing my thoughts on what the market is doing right now. I hope I answered everything.

 

[KA1]

drewp, thanks for your comments. I just wanted to get a general idea. Unless something terribly goes wrong, I have absolutely no idea of selling my unit( 1149 sq. ft). However, strictly for vanity purposes, it is nice to know that I could be owner of a $ 1 million dollar unit. After struggling for so many years,I would have,then, 'arrived', close to where Interested is now.

 

[drewp]

I understand struggle been there, Congrats on your accomplishments. It is even better when you arrive from a difficult place. It allows you to be humbled by your success, a trait somehow that isn't seen that often. All the best with the place.

Have you been given a move in date yet?

 

[interested]

drewp, thanks for your comments. I just wanted to get a general idea. Unless something terribly goes wrong, I have absolutely no idea of selling my unit( 1149 sq. ft). However, strictly for vanity purposes, it is nice to know that I could be owner of a $ 1 million dollar unit. After struggling for so many years,I would have,then, 'arrived', close to where Interested is now.

thanks Ka1: The trouble with "arriving" is every time you "arrive" they move the goal posts. I remember my father when I was young telling me if he ever made 1/2 a million dollars he would become a gentleman farmer and retire to what was then called Rhodesia. Now we are talking about a 1/2 million dollars being the price of the average home in Toronto.

I think "arriving" is actually a state of mind. I figure I arrived when when I was actually 45 years of age. I woke up and figured I had everything that I wanted and was happy. There will always be a nicer house, car, a better suit, and more recent technology to buy, but I am happy even if nothing further ever avails itself to me. And that arrival has nothing to do with a dollar figure since I have more now than when I was 45. I have found that happiness comes from within. That said, when one is comfortable financially, it certainly helps.

 

[KA1]

I understand struggle been there, Congrats on your accomplishments. It is even better when you arrive from a difficult place. It allows you to be humbled by your success, a trait somehow that isn't seen that often. All the best with the place.

Have you been given a move in date yet?

No, not yet. Unit is on 59th floor -- soon to be 62nd floor. I expect move in date somewhere in the 1st half of 2013.

It is a long -- really long -- way, when in the prime of my youth, I had to give up company of young, sexy girls and wash dishes for 6 months in London, England, to save money for my airfare to Toronto -- 30 hours of diswashing on top of 40 hours of full time job plus travel time. Anyway, as they say, all is well that ends well. One thing I am very much glad of is that the Good Lord has given me the humility/common sense to try to help others not so fortunate.

 

[interested]

Here is an intersting article about Ritz

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1121611

I base price per square foot on what prices are selling for in the immediate area. Lumiere and College park are selling from 650-750 a square foot. I might be a bit conservative on my valuations because speculation is a term investors, Agents and Builders like to use. I base a lot of my information on facts and patterns. I think KAI based on what you said your view better be a million dollar view. If so you can command close to 100 more a square foot than 750 per square foot average. I say that because views and I mean unobstructed views which are scarce nowadays are at a premium. Remember builders price there units in very controlled ways. They will price 1000-2000 dollars per floor but does not mean you will see that return when you sell it. Currently I would say with a good view I would say close to 800 a square foot. One thing to consider as well is 35 Balmuto (Uptown Residences) is pricing their units at around 750-900 a square foot. One bedroom just sold for 760 a square foot. Realistically Uptown will command 800 a square foot, but a lot of the units don't have the greatest of views. I had a person contact me to list there place. They told me that someone who works for the builder said they can list for well over 800 a square foot. Based on what he was told he said that he would like to list his 715 square foot one bedroom plus den at over $600000 with no parking or locker. I had to give them the bad news that it is not worth that amount. My point is sometimes people who are associated with the projects tend to overvaluate because it is what they do, or what they are told to do. KAI because you are on a higher floor you have the luxury to see what the lower floors price their units to give you a better idea of what you can command. Remember I am basing my thoughts on what the market is doing right now. I hope I answered everything.

Interestingly Drew I am told that at SL they have sold 4 units in January. There are a few small units of 800 sq.ft. left at high floors (over 50 in the Estates) of 891 sq.ft. at around $1 mill or $1121/sq.ft. There are 1114 sq.ft. similar to me but East face (I have West face which came at a considerable premium) at $1,360K or $1220/sq.ft. These are units that were divided from larger to smaller. The problem with them is that as they are in the estates, the condo fees are to be 75 cents vs. 54 cents that I am to pay and I think for small units this will be a factor. Otherwise; everything left at SL starts at $2million and up for 1537 sq.ft. and up.

My point is that despite Ritz's experience, SL appears to be able to sell units at well over $1100/sq.ft. though clearly larger units are slower to sell. Will be interesting to see if these large units have to be discounted. Presently $1100/sq.ft. seems to be the cheapest (for East face) with prices for West, SE and SW face coming closer to $1300-1600/sq.ft .

So the developer is still asking very significant prices and does not seem to be deterred thus far by Ritz. I bring this up because one would think if the developer was signficantly concerned, prices would not still be anywhere near this high.

 

[drewp]

The builder sets there prices when it is in the pre-(construction) phase and for them to lower the price just to unload product would be unheard of. What happens if people who bought from the builder found this out?

When the building is registered than the general public dictates price then the builder is no longer responsible for what happens.

 

[interested]

I understand that Drew.
That said, the developer will move product any way he can.
I just point out that selling condos at a rate of 1/week is still pretty good given that they are at minimum $1 mill and most product is $2 mill and up.