Baby, we got a bubble!?

[CN Tower]

I have a distinct feeling that downtown Toronto, especially core downtown Toronto, is turning into "Elliott Lake" for financially well off living in developments like Shangri-La, AURA, ROCP and the like and Karma and Pace condos for the individuals working in the support industries for the rich -- restaurant, banks, stores in Eaton Centre, financial sector.

Prices in down and core downtown Toronto will remain stable or slightly higher.

Sounds more like Monoco than New York. People in New York work for their wealth for the most part.

I bet there's a massive underground economy in Toronto thst propels so much off shoring here thst goes unreported. With the employment situation being so shaky it's tough to imagine that our stellar defelopment industry is fueled by traditonal factors.

Also, the retail scene does not look so strong to me, another indication of external off shoring of capital but not warm bodies.

 

[interested]

I have a distinct feeling that downtown Toronto, especially core downtown Toronto, is turning into "Elliott Lake" for financially well off living in developments like Shangri-La, AURA, ROCP and the like and Karma and Pace condos for the individuals working in the support industries for the rich -- restaurant, banks, stores in Eaton Centre, financial sector.

Prices in down and core downtown Toronto will remain stable or slightly higher.

I suspect that the core in Toronto is large enough that it may allow for more than just the "rich" and those that cater to them.
Certainly there are cities around the world where this is true, eg. London is largely unaffordable except for the very rich. That said, I don't think TO is London. It is to early to judge. It will be clearer in another 5-10 years I think only if this "feeling" you have plays out. Also, if we have a major correction, it may derail this trend. I am not sure as well that the majority of small units being proposed and built truly makes TO an area for the truly well off financially. Rather I think it is for the upper middle mobile individuals working at the big banks/insurance companies/accounting firms etc. in the core.
The resistance in price to Ritz and Trump and possibly SL at $1000/sq.ft.+ would tend to suggest against it becoming only the rich people's play ground. The fact that most projects are mid to mid-upper condos works against this theory.

 

[interested]

Quote from a today's post in the thread "1 Thousand Bay Street".

"... the lineups on Saturday went from 8.00am to 5.00 pm and includes valet parking and three police officers to direct hordes and cars. All buying at $ 800 sq/ft./.."

In Friday's Real Estate section of The Globe and Mail there were ads about 6/7 developments opening up to the public. In Saturday's The Star, there were ads about additional developments opening up to the public. Then, there is a post above about 1 Thousand Bay.

Hordes of (crazy) people on one side. Then, there are perinial bubble-busters on the other side.

Only time will tell who is right.

this just shows they created a successful "frenzy". Foreign investors like "Bay street" much like they know Wall street. They are told this is the "heart" of the financial area and one of the Premier streets. I have posted elsewhere that I do not get why Bay street commands more than neighbouring streets but it seems to none the less. I guess it will be interesting to see what happens after the 10 day recission period. Also being close to U of T, small units I guess will rent to students, as well as others.

I personally understand it but can't stand that they allow and encourage frenzies. It is all marketing....buy now early or be left out and "you will make money on appreciation" of your unit. We know at present the gap between resale and precon is quite stiff (about $150/sq.ft.) Means we need about 5-8% approximately of continued escalation of resale for 4 years to justify this. I think this is a very big assumption, one which I cannot believe will play out.

 

[redfirm]

I have a distinct feeling that downtown Toronto, especially core downtown Toronto, is turning into "Elliott Lake" for financially well off living in developments like Shangri-La, AURA, ROCP and the like and Karma and Pace condos for the individuals working in the support industries for the rich -- restaurant, banks, stores in Eaton Centre, financial sector.

Prices in down and core downtown Toronto will remain stable or slightly higher.

haha ... nice try my friend, putting aura and rocp in the same class as SL ... I know you invested there, but c'mon ... they used some smart marketing with that penthouse in aura and got bunch of more or less poor people to buy into this "dream" that they will be living in the same building as some movie star ... somebody with farly low paying job from my office bought a condo there with her brother .. she was soo happy that she will be living in the luxury bulding. I didn't have the hart to tell her that only rich people live in luxury buildings and luxury buildings are those where only rich people live ...

 

[redfirm]

btw ... what's going on with that penthouse? do I smell another one "purchased" by the builder himself as there's no real market for these unless they are in truly high end buildings?

 

[interested]

haha ... nice try my friend, putting aura and rocp in the same class as SL ... I know you invested there, but c'mon ... they used some smart marketing with that penthouse in aura and got bunch of more or less poor people to buy into this "dream" that they will be living in the same building as some movie star ... somebody with farly low paying job from my office bought a condo there with her brother .. she was soo happy that she will be living in the luxury bulding. I didn't have the hart to tell her that only rich people live in luxury buildings and luxury buildings are those where only rich people live ...

In fairness Redfirm I think Ka1 wrote the post because as you probably have realized we have had a banter going on for a long time about the merits/flaws of SL and Aura. Ka1 I know from his posts has bought "high in the sky" and on the executive suite floors. I am sure it will be quite luxurious and certainly he will have breathtaking views. Personally I feel SL will be somewhat more exclusive than Aura but that said, given the price resistance at Ritz and articles we are seeing about Trump makes me think that SL will also have some trouble sustaining prices as they are. My point is that if the luxury market can't sustain the prices, it will filter down to Aura and ROCP, and other mid-upper projects. This in fact may be the reason that TO does not become the place of the "rich" and those "catering to the rich".

One additional thought. Rich is all a relative term. Perhaps for the person who bought with the fairly low paying job from your office views the Aura as a luxury building. I am sure the Donald would probably only view the penthouse as luxury. And those with money to purchase the 4S Penthouse would deem the rest of the 4S as "for the masses". So I am sure your co worker is "in luxury by her standards". I am glad you did not deflate her bubble and allow her the luxury of living with probably a number of people who are better off and in a building that allows her to feel like she is "special". There is afterall always someone better off (unless you are Bill Gates, or maybe that is Carlos Gomes now, or the Ikea founder...never can quite remember who is currently on the top of the heap).

 

[KA1]

btw ... what's going on with that penthouse? do I smell another one "purchased" by the builder himself as there's no real market for these unless they are in truly high end buildings?

Top floor is still for sale and so are a few sub-penhouse units. Make an offer and you might get a 'luxury' unit at your affordable prices

 

[drewp]

2 solds at Ritz one at 780 a square foot and another one at 730 a square foot. YIKES!!

 

[KA1]

haha ... nice try my friend, putting aura and rocp in the same class as SL ... I know you invested there, but c'mon ...

Now, that I have had a good night's sleep, I can reply to your post.

Luxury, my friend, is a 'relative' term.

For someone living on the street, a night at Salavarion Army's shelter is a luxury.

For someone like me, who has been referred as a 'lowly bean counter' all my life and treated accordingly, luxury is living on the 59th ( and soon to be 62nd) 'Executive' floor of AURA, standing in the window, looking across the horizon to SL and 'pity' those living on the 26th floor and, despite having spent a bundle on their units, still missing the real view of GTA that one can have only from the 62nd floor. I fully intend to sit in the window of my unit, and, for a change, look down upon others -- the way others have looked down upon me almost all my life.

One of the standard feature of the units on 'Executive' floors of AURA is a wine fridge, in addition to the regular fridge. For someone who gave up on the slogan 'Drink Canada Dry' long long time ago, this is 'super luxury'.

 

[KA1]

2 solds at Ritz one at 780 a square foot and another one at 730 a square foot. YIKES!!

Thanks for the update. It is really scary.

If and when you have any updates on the sales at 1 Thousand Bay, please, post it on the thread. Txs.

 

[interested]

2 solds at Ritz one at 780 a square foot and another one at 730 a square foot. YIKES!!

Agree but the reason is clear. There are about 28 units for resale. They are large units. So even if the $730/sq.ft. was a 1500 sq.ft. unit that is over a Million. If it was one of the 2000+ sq.ft. units, closer to 1.5million.

The real question is becomes if this is true value then what is the value of all the product coming to market of mid level quality asking $700-800/sq.ft. Of course, it is a different thing to pay $730 or $780/sq.ft. for 500 vs. 1500 or 2000 sq.ft. as we are still talking about 3 to 4x the price.

We must also remember that some of the very early buyers in Ritz were buying in 2005 or 2006 and I know someone who bought a large unit from builder at the pre "vip" and paid in the $500's/sq.ft. at that time. So if they were to sell at $750 for what was a 2000+ sq.ft. unit; there is still $400-500K profit. However, this is definitely concerning.

drewp, could you please specify the price or the size of the units and what floors they were on.

I agree it bodes badly for Trump and SL and probably even 4S, but also for a number of luxury buildings already around.

Also drewp, could you comment if you think this is a "Ritz" problem or is this a harbinger of the "end" of the luxury market and with it, a subsequent decline for the rest of the markets as the price deflation would work its way down?

And to Ka1; one has to wonder if Ritz is getting mid $700's/sq.ft what would Aura exec floors and the rest be worth now, especially if one has say a 1500 sq.ft. unit at Aura; or for that matter at SL?

 

[KA1]

And to Ka1; one has to wonder if Ritz is getting mid $700's/sq.ft what would Aura exec floors and the rest be worth now, especially if one has say a 1500 sq.ft. unit at Aura; or for that matter at SL?

In March 2008, I paid $ 700psf for a unit, on 'Exdecutive Floors' in AURA when units on the lower floors were selling for $ 550psf.

I did not buy the unit for 'flipping' or selling somewhere down the road. It will be part of my Estate. As such, current fmv of this unit does not bother me at all.

 

[Wildymyst]

Now, that I have had a good night's sleep, I can reply to your post.

Luxury, my friend, is a 'relative' term.

For someone living on the street, a night at Salavarion Army's shelter is a luxury.

For someone like me, who has been referred as a 'lowly bean counter' all my life and treated accordingly, luxury is living on the 59th ( and soon to be 62nd) 'Executive' floor of AURA, standing in the window, looking across the horizon to SL and 'pity' those living on the 26th floor and, despite having spent a bundle on their units, still missing the real view of GTA that one can have only from the 62nd floor. I fully intend to sit in the window of my unit, and, for a change, look down upon others -- the way others have looked down upon me almost all my life.

One of the standard feature of the units on 'Executive' floors of AURA is a wine fridge, in addition to the regular fridge. For someone who gave up on the slogan 'Drink Canada Dry' long long time ago, this is 'super luxury'.

What's a "lowly bean counter"? Also is it referring to the type of job or something else? Just curious.

Thanks

 

[interested]

In March 2008, I paid $ 700psf for a unit, on 'Exdecutive Floors' in AURA when units on the lower floors were selling for $ 550psf.

I did not buy the unit for 'flipping' or selling somewhere down the road. It will be part of my Estate. As such, current fmv of this unit does not bother me at all.

I understand that and was not implying anything personally for you. I was asking only a question about value today in view of the Ritz sale prices. Again, I wonder is this a Ritz specific issue or a general one of things to come?

 

[CN Tower]

2 solds at Ritz one at 780 a square foot and another one at 730 a square foot. YIKES!!

Look, it's Toronto so there's a market for everything but personally i dont't like the location of the Ritz as a primary residence. It's not at all appealing to me whether it's $1100 per sq ft or $500 per sq ft. I wouldn't want to reside there. The same can be said for the Trump tower.

I'm wondering if the market has reached a smiliar conclusion and the buyers are simply those using it as a second home or perhaps just speculating on the relative value of a 5 star hotel property being undervalued relative to more basic accomodations at Cityplace.