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Baby, we got a bubble!?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...-interactive-map/article2172637/?from=2176140

Link to The Globe and Mail interactive map on increase/decrease in house prices in various parts of GTA.

Take your mouse over a particulat neighbourhood to see increase/decrease in prices as compared to last year
Hmmm... I'm in Cliffside, and the claim is that it's gone up from $392260 to $501440 or 28% in a year. I guess a lot of detached homes by the lake have sold recently. Same goes for Cliffcrest next door to the east. They're up to $550197 now, up 24%.

Overall, there seems to be a sea of blue (+%) vs. occasional orange (-%).

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Meanwhile, what $395000 gets you in Toronto:

Two bedroom co-op in Rosedale:

get-for0923re01_1322849cl-8.jpg


Small two bedroom + den townhouse in King West:

get-for0923re02_1322850cl-8.jpg


Ugly 3-bedroom detached bungalow in Scarborough:

get-for0923re03_1322851cl-8.jpg
 
how wrong you were!!

Welcome to UT suzieq;

Before you call the "kettal" black; be careful you are not the pot talking. It is easy on Monday morning to call Sunday's game in hindsight. Please venture a prediction and we can judge your forecasting abilities. They have to be better than mine since I share the stagnation with possible down turn view and have been offside so far as well.

Kettal made a prediction based on evaluation of facts and events as he sees them I assume. Just because it has not yet occurred does not mean he will be wrong in the longer term. Predicting the exact moment of change is difficult. I think all one can hope for is to be reasonably close.

Averages are very misleading. Teranet comparing the same housing resold is much more indicative. Yes, prices are still up but there was at least anectdotally a lot more higher end stuff selling. I have been told by a couple of agents now that the high end has ground to a much slower rate of growth and that over $2 million is sitting with a lot of competition and buyers are getting the upper hand. As a rule, the high end tends to react first, and then in the next few months, it will filter down to the middle and lower price ranges. So let's see if this is a "one off event" or a trend.

once again, welcome to our discussions and we look forward to hearing more.
 
Suzieq;

I think that putting Toronto in with cosmopolitan cities like New York, London, Hong Kong, Paris and Tokyo may be a bit of a stretch.
These other cities, at least the first 3; are major financial centers. Yes, Canada has fared quite well so far but now there is news of a possible China slowdown. You saw the C$ drop precipitously as suddenly the question became whether or not China will need as much raw resources; the main reason that the C$ stood up so well. If the C$ starts to drop; then foreigner's buying our real estate will be looking at a depreciating currency. This is simply more escalation in price they have to get to maintain the value of their investment.

My point is that Canada has done very well for a cosmopolitan city of late; prices have grown to reflect that. Continued price increases in a bad economy, World wide problems will require the Canadian economy to continue to perform at outstanding levels which in my view is a big risk. I fully expect prices to level off and even possibly drop. I stick to my prediction that 10-15% price depreciation over the next 3-5 years is certainly not to be unexpected. Of course, my crystal ball will have to be altered to reflect world events as they change.
 
Agreed, Toronto does not compare favourably to London/NY/etc. Nobody in the world thinks it does except for those who listen to Toronto real estate marketing.

The "Global Cities" index is the benchmark for comparing the world's leading cities. Here is the summary of the 2010 results.
http://www.globalsherpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/at-kearney-global-cities-index-2010.jpg

You'll note that NY/London/Tokyo/Paris/Hong Kong rank 1st to 5th, with scores of 6.22/5.86/5.42/5.35/4.14 respectively.

In contrast Toronto is rated at 3.13. Comparable with Washington/Brussels/Beijing/Boston/Madrid.

Finally, cities such as Paris, London, NY, Tokyo and Hong Kong face an acute shortage of undeveloped real estate. Contrast this with Toronto and our acres of undeveloped land in the city core.
 
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Kettal made a prediction based on evaluation of facts and events as he sees them I assume. Just because it has not yet occurred does not mean he will be wrong in the longer term. Predicting the exact moment of change is difficult. I think all one can hope for is to be reasonably close.
If you make the same prediction repeatedly, maybe eventually it will be correct. That doesn't mean you have any better forecasting abilities than anyone else though, if you're off by say 4 years. Or a decade for that matter. People (myself included) have been predicting a significant real estate pullback for a decade now.
 
A little off topic but I figure I'll just ask this here instead of making a new thread. Is there a website that shows what a house in Toronto actually sold for? Not just the list price...
 
If you make the same prediction repeatedly, maybe eventually it will be correct. That doesn't mean you have any better forecasting abilities than anyone else though, if you're off by say 4 years. Or a decade for that matter. People (myself included) have been predicting a significant real estate pullback for a decade now.

Indeed. My place is up about 25% since 2009 based on what the neighbours are selling for. A 15% drop off today's price would make me pretty happy. If it takes another 2 years before prices stabilize or drop then there is a good chance I'll be up another 10%.

NOTE, a market crash (50% drop) wouldn't hurt my feelings as I'm looking to upgrade to something with more land for the next ~60 years based on my grandparents longevity.
 
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At this point, I think you'd have to be a fool to invest in Toronto real estate...that is if you're not in it for the long haul. We're headed for a recession (hell, it feels like we've been in one over the last several years)...buckle up!
 
Question for the folks in this thread. In your opinion, assuming someone is looking for a place to live for the next 5-7 years (house not condo) as opposed to an investment property, would it still be a bad time to buy?

I will also add that I agree with RE bears. The fundamentals are out of whack. With that said, prices have held. I just don't know what to make of this market. :confused:
 
Question for the folks in this thread. In your opinion, assuming someone is looking for a place to live for the next 5-7 years (house not condo) as opposed to an investment property, would it still be a bad time to buy?
1. We're all just guessing.

2. It's a lot easier to justify a purchase if you plan on living there 7-8 years than if it's just 4-5 years. The shorter the time frame, the less it makes sense, because of all the costs associated with buying a selling a home.

3. If you really are a real estate bear, then you might want to listen to yourself. That said, I expected the market was going to drop but bought anyway in 2007, just because I wanted to move out of my condo into a detached house. However, my time frame for staying in the place was hopefully 20+ years. See #2. By that time I would hope the place would have doubled in price. Similarly, my sister just bought a place a couple of months ago. She just needed a place to live, and hopes to be there for a decade or more.
 
The trend to miniaturization continues:

301 square foot condo with 89 square foot balcony (with world's shortest video tour)

Sold for $166000 ($551 per square foot, pre-construction).

A similar one is on sale for $200000 now. Granite counters, in-suite washer/dryer, but no closet space.

Stop the clock! $551 per square foot for a 301 square foot condo in REGENT PARK? Bought by a real estate agent as an investment?

Does Toronto have a bubble? There's your answer right there.
 
^ this efficient apartment is small but nicely done. For $1000/month, I don't think the investor will have a problem renting it out. But the $551psf is insane for pre-construction in regent park.

As for the article mentioning the 270 sf apartment at $200,000, that's a whopping $740psf. Stay far far away from these units
 

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