urbandreamer
recession proof
Interestingly, this tacky vuglar taste of these people is apparent in the smallest properties money can buy in Toronto...cemeteries. I was rather astonished and disgusted by it.
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
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KA1
Senior Member
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-know-rates-will-stay-on-hold/article2156432/
An interesting article by Mr. Rob Carrick, personal finance columnist of The Globe and Mail.
An interesting article by Mr. Rob Carrick, personal finance columnist of The Globe and Mail.
klb86
Active Member
August 2011 stats are in:
Condo prices up 11% y/y
http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...updates/news2011/pdf/nr_market_watch_0811.pdf
Condo prices up 11% y/y
http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...updates/news2011/pdf/nr_market_watch_0811.pdf
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KA1
Senior Member
A question for anyone knowledgable with the innner workings of R/E and various reports that come out periodically.
Sales are up in August 24% as compared with last year and prices are up 11%.
I am following up a few MLS listings for RoCP1. Units are still unsold after a few weeks of listings. Any reasons as to why the increase in sales activities is passing by RoCP1?
Sales are up in August 24% as compared with last year and prices are up 11%.
I am following up a few MLS listings for RoCP1. Units are still unsold after a few weeks of listings. Any reasons as to why the increase in sales activities is passing by RoCP1?
CN Tower
Banned
Propaganda and nothing but.
A healthy market is one with slightly above inflation price increases and where demand of actual end users meets affordability of sales prices, not speculators/"investors"/safe haven'ers/etc.
I would much rather see 5% annual price appreciation than 10%. The latter signals a correction is imminent.
CN Tower
Banned
I object to your use of the term "these people". Unless you are referring to the condo buying public in general I would cautiously and delicately urge you consider the insensitivity of harmful impact of your comments.
Eug
Senior Member
Those tastes are changing. For example the new builds in Vancouver by Chinese are a lot more understated than they used to be. Monster homes are still popular, but they're not quite as "opulent" as they were in the 80s and 90s. However, it also depends on where the buyers are from and how much connection there is with North America. It seems the newly rich ones coming straight from China have different tastes than the ones where the kids have lived in Canada going to school.
And detached are up 10% yoy as well. Almost $650000 average for a detached in the 416.
However, the detached 416 prices are down from July, in contrast to condos.
Median price is now $387000 in Toronto.
In the $2 million + range, 28 detached homes and 5 condos (!) were sold last month.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2011/mw1108.pdf
CN Tower
Banned
KA1 old friend,
I view these reports with the skeptical indifference of a S&P rating of Lehman Bros stock days before it went bankrupt but I can speculate that the monthly report does not signal any kind of overall trend. One thing I can offer is that in this market properties that are priced accurately sell quickly but the MLS is littered with instances of stale and recycled listings by sellers who are not actually seller but rather 'wish price' sellers. That may be the case at College Park.
Eug
Senior Member
Date / Sales / Avg price
1986 52,919 $138,925
1987 43,475 $189,105
1988 49,381 $229,635
1989 38,960 $273,698
1990 26,779 $255,020
1991 38,144 $234,313
1992 41,703 $214,971
1993 38,990 $206,490
1994 44,237 $208,921
1995 39,273 $203,028
1996 55,779 $198,150
1997 58,014 $211,307
1998 55,344 $216,815
1999 58,957 $228,372
2000 58,343 $243,255
2001 67,612 $251,508
2002 74,759 $275,231
2003 78,898 $293,067
2004 83,501 $315,231
2005 84,145 $335,907
2006 83,084 $351,941
2007 93,193 $376,236
2008 74,552 $379,347
2009 87,308 $395,460
2010 86,170 $431,463
2011/01 4,208 $425,903
2011/02 6,074 $452,967
2011/03 9,011 $456,076
2011/04 8,785 $476,598
2011/05 9,789 $485,467
2011/06 10001 $474,993
2011/07 7,747 $459,206
2011/08 7,542 $451,663
1986 52,919 $138,925
1987 43,475 $189,105
1988 49,381 $229,635
1989 38,960 $273,698
1990 26,779 $255,020
1991 38,144 $234,313
1992 41,703 $214,971
1993 38,990 $206,490
1994 44,237 $208,921
1995 39,273 $203,028
1996 55,779 $198,150
1997 58,014 $211,307
1998 55,344 $216,815
1999 58,957 $228,372
2000 58,343 $243,255
2001 67,612 $251,508
2002 74,759 $275,231
2003 78,898 $293,067
2004 83,501 $315,231
2005 84,145 $335,907
2006 83,084 $351,941
2007 93,193 $376,236
2008 74,552 $379,347
2009 87,308 $395,460
2010 86,170 $431,463
2011/01 4,208 $425,903
2011/02 6,074 $452,967
2011/03 9,011 $456,076
2011/04 8,785 $476,598
2011/05 9,789 $485,467
2011/06 10001 $474,993
2011/07 7,747 $459,206
2011/08 7,542 $451,663
dlam
Active Member
^ interesting. I wonder how much % of single house to condos in 2011/06 compared to 2011/08. My guess is that many of the expensive house stock were sold in 2011/06, thus an average price drop in 2011/08 that might not particularly mean condo prices have dropped at all.
KA1
Senior Member
Thanks for the enlightened comments.
js97
Senior Member
I want to also point out the type of jobs available in TO, household income, and expected mortgages...
I think the crash will come in the next couple of years when the 35 and 40 yr mortages come up due...
a 500k mortgage increase by 500-700 dollars if interest rates go up 2 points (although that's not happening anytime soon)
And as we saw in 2006/7, it can go up quickly!
People forget you may only be accumulating 10 K a year in equity on an approx 300k property... that's a vary small number in terms of price fluctuation... If you factor in interest rates, buying is really not that worth while in the face of uncertain market
I think the crash will come in the next couple of years when the 35 and 40 yr mortages come up due...
a 500k mortgage increase by 500-700 dollars if interest rates go up 2 points (although that's not happening anytime soon)
And as we saw in 2006/7, it can go up quickly!
People forget you may only be accumulating 10 K a year in equity on an approx 300k property... that's a vary small number in terms of price fluctuation... If you factor in interest rates, buying is really not that worth while in the face of uncertain market
Eug
Senior Member
Interestingly, a lot of people are breaking their mortgages now and getting new fixed rate mortgages. With Canadian 5-year bond yields now below 1.4% and near record lows, fixed rate mortgage rates have fallen through the floor. There is now availability of a 5-year fixed rate rate mortgage from a major bank with all the normal repayment privileges, for under 2.9%. And it's under 2% for a 3-year fixed. Both the 3% and the 2% barriers have been broken.
Think about that for a sec. LESS THAN 3% FOR A 5-YEAR FIXED. Yowza! This is absolutely unprecedented. To a certain extent, this will ease the price drop pressure through to 2016. Even if price increases were to average just 4% per year over those 5 years, a drop of a quarter off prices then will just bring prices back to 2010 levels.
I am not actually predicting price increases of 4% per year going forward, but I do think it's possible, given the status of the economy, current interest rates, and interest rate forecasts for the coming year.
Think about that for a sec. LESS THAN 3% FOR A 5-YEAR FIXED. Yowza! This is absolutely unprecedented. To a certain extent, this will ease the price drop pressure through to 2016. Even if price increases were to average just 4% per year over those 5 years, a drop of a quarter off prices then will just bring prices back to 2010 levels.
I am not actually predicting price increases of 4% per year going forward, but I do think it's possible, given the status of the economy, current interest rates, and interest rate forecasts for the coming year.
Ric
Active Member
interested
Senior Member
I agree with Ric and with what Eug points out.
It looks like the party will roll on for longer. The problem still remains that low interest rates are getting more individuals in the market. At some point, maybe it will be 2016 as suggested; as interest rates rise eventually unless we remain in economic turmoil "forever"; not a good thing.....there will be a price to pay.
To me this is akin to playing Russian Roulette with a loaded gun and a bigger prize every time you click the trigger. No one knows exactly when the gun will go off, except that it will, and then everyone still left playing the game will realize they waited too long.
For now; with few places to invest and get a yield; the return of a rental source of income will appeal to some investors though I am not sure that a lot of people realize just how frustrating being a landlord can be. This is definitely not the easiest investment to manage compared to say a REIT or other investments.
It looks like the party will roll on for longer. The problem still remains that low interest rates are getting more individuals in the market. At some point, maybe it will be 2016 as suggested; as interest rates rise eventually unless we remain in economic turmoil "forever"; not a good thing.....there will be a price to pay.
To me this is akin to playing Russian Roulette with a loaded gun and a bigger prize every time you click the trigger. No one knows exactly when the gun will go off, except that it will, and then everyone still left playing the game will realize they waited too long.
For now; with few places to invest and get a yield; the return of a rental source of income will appeal to some investors though I am not sure that a lot of people realize just how frustrating being a landlord can be. This is definitely not the easiest investment to manage compared to say a REIT or other investments.