Baby, we got a bubble!?

[TCW]

CMHC fires back at critics

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/cmhc-fires-back-at-critics/article1906882/

- CMHC argues that the Canadian model is cost-effective, and has provided the Canadian taxpayer with $12-billion over the last decade in profits and income taxes.

 

[daveto]

CMHC fires back at critics

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/cmhc-fires-back-at-critics/article1906882/

- CMHC argues that the Canadian model is cost-effective, and has provided the Canadian taxpayer with $12-billion over the last decade in profits and income taxes.

Yup. $12b in profit for the Canadian Taxpayer. And the only downside has been $300-$400b of more expensive housing and the associated costs (interest, Realtor fees, etc).

 

[rbt]

Yup. $12b in profit for the Canadian Taxpayer. And the only downside has been $300-$400b of more expensive housing and the associated costs (interest, Realtor fees, etc).

I don't think you can blame that exclusively on CMHC's existance.

 

[CN Tower]

Yup. $12b in profit for the Canadian Taxpayer. And the only downside has been $300-$400b of more expensive housing and the associated costs (interest, Realtor fees, etc).

I don't consider higher housing values a negative for society when a full 70% of the population participates in the housing market.

However, I do think that it's AIG-level stupid to be boasting of $12b in profit when the exposure is $800b in loan guarantees. That is reckless and dangerous.

 

[urbandreamer]

So here's my latest prediction re: when the bubble bursts.

Rumour has it One Bloor East is getting a height extension. History tells me that whenever a new tallest building nears completion in Toronto--think BA1 in Fall-Winter 2008/09--the real estate market goes south.

So, peakish c.2011-12; pull back begins end of '12 and bottom hits c.2014....

Get back to me in 3.5 years to see how it played out....

 

[TorontoMike$$]

So here's my latest prediction re: when the bubble bursts.

Rumour has it One Bloor East is getting a height extension. History tells me that whenever a new tallest building nears completion in Toronto--think BA1 in Fall-Winter 2008/09--the real estate market goes south.

So, peakish c.2011-12; pull back begins end of '12 and bottom hits c.2014....

Get back to me in 3.5 years to see how it played out....

Some guys have been singing the same song for years.

 

[urbandreamer]

^Not me! Late last summer I in this very thread--to the shock of many bears here--called for a bull market in 2011, based on both year of the rabbit and $INDU chart analysis. I came out with my prediction weeks and months before any Bay St or TREB or CREA analyst! So as I always humbly say, I am always right.

 

[Polkaroo]

I don't consider higher housing values a negative for society when a full 70% of the population participates in the housing market.

Yeah, by borrowing way more than they should. For many people this comes at the expense of retirement savings. This will mean trouble down the road.

 

[Monaco]

Anecdotally, well-priced units have been moving pretty quickly in the downtown area. I've been helping a friend look for a place. It's kind of scary how much things cost and what you get for the price. I purchased in spring 2009 and prices have gone up quite a bit since then, and I would not be able to afford my unit today.

 

[cdr108]

Anecdotally, well-priced units have been moving pretty quickly in the downtown area. I've been helping a friend look for a place. It's kind of scary how much things cost and what you get for the price. I purchased in spring 2009 and prices have gone up quite a bit since then, and I would not be able to afford my unit today.

how much have they gone up since 2009?

IIRC, depending on where in dt Toronto, 2009 was $500-700 psf.

i bought a unit in mid-2006 for ~$300 psf, sold in mid-2010 at $500 psf because there was such a dramatic rise within 4 years that i don't think prices are sustainable without further gov't / central banks intervention / manipulation.

 

[Monaco]

how much have they gone up since 2009?

IIRC, depending on where in dt Toronto, 2009 was $500-700 psf.

i bought a unit in mid-2006 for ~$300 psf, sold in mid-2010 at $500 psf because there was such a dramatic rise within 4 years that i don't think prices are sustainable without further gov't / central banks intervention / manipulation.

I'm not sure exactly since I do not have access to sold data, just the asking price. During the lull in early 2009, I purchased for ~$420 psf including parking and locker. Later in 2009, similar units were listed for $30+ psf more (again I don't have the sale prices). Since then, prices seem to be up by $30+ psf again. I would not buy my unit at $480 psf today.

 

[cdr108]

I'm not sure exactly since I do not have access to sold data, just the asking price. During the lull in early 2009, I purchased for ~$420 psf including parking and locker. Later in 2009, similar units were listed for $30+ psf more (again I don't have the sale prices). Since then, prices seem to be up by $30+ psf again. I would not buy my unit at $480 psf today.

where did you buy dt? that sounds like a good price with parking and locker.

 

[Eug]

where did you buy dt? that sounds like a good price with parking and locker.

Hmmm... What do you define as downtown?

The condo townhouse I sold years ago north of Front and East of Bathurst still goes for around $400 per sq. ft. IIRC, and that includes a shared 2-car garage (not counted towards the square footage), directly connected to the unit. I stored my junk in the garage. It also had a 200 sq. ft. rooftop patio with natural gas hookup.

 

[InsideTorontoRealEstate]

Are Prices too high?
Are there too many condos?
Is Toronto in a real estate bubble?

Tune in tonight as we present hard facts and no conjecture. As George Carras, President of Realnet and Jason Mercer, Senior Market Analyst at the Toronto Real Estate Board present hard core economic fundamentals of what's going on in Toronto.

Tune in and call 416.446.7090 and ask host Brian Persaud all your real estate questions. Inside Toronto Real Estate airs Wednesdays at 7:00 PM only on Rogers TV.

Repeats
Thursday 12:00p

For video and more info check out our web Page http://www.rogerstv.com/itre

 

[InsideTorontoRealEstate]

Next up on Inside Toronto Real Estate: Do we have a bubble?

Are Prices too high?
Are there too many condos?
Is Toronto in a real estate bubble?

Tune in tonight as we present hard facts and no conjecture. As George Carras, President of Realnet and Jason Mercer, Senior Market Analyst at the Toronto Real Estate Board present hard core economic fundamentals of what's going on in Toronto.

Tune in and call 416.446.7090 and ask host Brian Persaud all your real estate questions. Inside Toronto Real Estate airs Wednesdays at 7:00 PM only on Rogers TV.

Repeats
Thursday 12:00p

For video and more info check out our web Page http://www.rogerstv.com/itre