Baby, we got a bubble!?

[interested]

More of the older condos are owner occupied as a rule because back then, condo price escalation was not as drastic.

As well, buildings with lots of very small units are designed to cater to investors.

Finally, small buildings with few units tend not to attract as many investors. That said, however, costs tend to be proportionately higher.

If the building exists, the building manager can usually tell you what proportion are renters. In one of the older condos that my mother lives in, they actually publish in the news letter the number of owners and the percentage of renters (other than family members occupying).

Once you get the advise, what CN Tower suggested is a good suggestion and true to a degree.

Our condo in Florida was about 90% owner occupied. When prices started to go crazy, everyone started to buy. We went up to I am guessing 30% non owner occupied. However, compared to alot ofthe newer buildings on the beach, some of which were 90% investors, we did somewhat better. However, this did not shield us fully. We currently are down about 50-60% from the peak of 2006 (which was up 200% from 2000 to put things in perspective) but some of the buildings in Florida are 65-70% down. That is not the problem in Florida however.
The problem is that condo fees are not being paid by alot of deliquent units and as such the other owners are responsible for more than their fees as it is a collective liability. An interesting warning of what could happen if one buys in a building that is predominently investor driven as most new condo starts seem to be in the Core of the city at least.

 

[cdr108]

Our condo in Florida was about 90% owner occupied. When prices started to go crazy, everyone started to buy. We went up to I am guessing 30% non owner occupied. However, compared to alot ofthe newer buildings on the beach, some of which were 90% investors, we did somewhat better. However, this did not shield us fully. We currently are down about 50-60% from the peak of 2006 (which was up 200% from 2000 to put things in perspective) but some of the buildings in Florida are 65-70% down. That is not the problem in Florida however.

as an aside, what is the current rate PSF for condos in FL?

i ask b/c i recently received an email from Baker R/E for a project they are brokering in West Palm Beach by Kolter. There was also an article in the Star the weekend.

 

[urbandreamer]

So, a surge towards $1000PSF average downtown, then a pullback in late 2012 (doomsday will scare ppl, even though we know it's bs, much like the y2k nonsense...) to the fib $650 support area?

 

[CN Tower]

More of the older condos are owner occupied as a rule because back then, condo price escalation was not as drastic.

As well, buildings with lots of very small units are designed to cater to investors.

Finally, small buildings with few units tend not to attract as many investors. That said, however, costs tend to be proportionately higher.

If the building exists, the building manager can usually tell you what proportion are renters. In one of the older condos that my mother lives in, they actually publish in the news letter the number of owners and the percentage of renters (other than family members occupying).

Once you get the advise, what CN Tower suggested is a good suggestion and true to a degree.

Our condo in Florida was about 90% owner occupied. When prices started to go crazy, everyone started to buy. We went up to I am guessing 30% non owner occupied. However, compared to alot ofthe newer buildings on the beach, some of which were 90% investors, we did somewhat better. However, this did not shield us fully. We currently are down about 50-60% from the peak of 2006 (which was up 200% from 2000 to put things in perspective) but some of the buildings in Florida are 65-70% down. That is not the problem in Florida however.
The problem is that condo fees are not being paid by alot of deliquent units and as such the other owners are responsible for more than their fees as it is a collective liability. An interesting warning of what could happen if one buys in a building that is predominently investor driven as most new condo starts seem to be in the Core of the city at least.

The higher end oceanfront buildings that I am familiar with have not dropped anywhere near that much from the peak. Ocean is Ocean. I'm not sure where you are looking Interested but my experience is much more moderate.

 

[CN Tower]

So, a surge towards $1000PSF average downtown, then a pullback in late 2012 (doomsday will scare ppl, even though we know it's bs, much like the y2k nonsense...) to the fib $650 support area?

It's unclear whether you are being your habitual facetious self or not, but the only way downtown condo prices don't reverse course (as the trend indicates) is if Toronto morphs into a full Asian or Chinese wealth sheltering outpost like Vancouver. (see G&M article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ble/article1808967/singlepage/#articlecontent)

The local market cannot afford today's prices with 10% unemployment and flat household incomes.

I doubt anyone living, working and loving our Toronto really wants it to turn into this kind of place:

Still, it’s undeniable that there has been a downside to the influx of wealthy people; Bing Thom, whose firm has given Vancouver some of its most iconic buildings, expresses a common view when he laments how real estate prices have banished young families from close-in neighbourhoods, except for the increasing number who choose high-rise condos over houses. He also worries about the city losing the bohemian air that has always contributed to the Lotus Land effect: Where will all the chefs and designers live, let alone the artists and musicians? “We are emptying our city,†he says. “A lot of young people are forced to leave.â€

 

[cdr108]

It's unclear whether you are being your habitual facetious self or not, but the only way downtown condo prices don't reverse course (as the trend indicates) is if Toronto morphs into a full Asian or Chinese wealth sheltering outpost like Vancouver. (see G&M article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ble/article1808967/singlepage/#articlecontent)

The local market cannot afford today's prices with 10% unemployment and flat household incomes.

I doubt anyone living, working and loving our Toronto really wants it to turn into this kind of place:

only the developers and R/E agents as long as foreign buyers are purchasing b/c there's no risk to them (developers and R/E agents) and they don't care who the buyers are as long as the $$$ is there ... very short sighted, but what do you expect.

 

[ILuvTO]

Thank you, Interested!

 

[interested]

as an aside, what is the current rate PSF for condos in FL?

i ask b/c i recently received an email from Baker R/E for a project they are brokering in West Palm Beach by Kolter. There was also an article in the Star the weekend.

Very variable. The condo project in West Palm is not on the Ocean.

I follow Ocean front more. Prices in Sunny Isles on the Atlantic side and new high end/luxury was as high as $700-1000/sq.ft. Now closer to $500-700/sq.ft for new luxury.
Older buildings like ours: $125-300/sq.ft. with the highest amounts for direct ocean views or South views. (Ocean is to the East).
Some on the ocean can even be had for $100/sq.ft.
Most new stuff has been trading at quite severe discounts. Some bulk sales in Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and Palm Beach counties at anywhere from $150-300/sq.ft. for mid to high end.

Best example of a deal. Trump Hollywood. Was around $700+/sq.ft. Then offered at $550/sq.ft. and they would finish the suite flooring and painting whereas they were more prior to this of kitchen bathrooms were provided and concrete flooring for you to finish.
Bulk buyer just swooped in and picked up the last 175 of 200 units (only 25 closed). Hollywood is a neighbourhood on the ocean which is builtup and mostly older condos ($150 - 300/sq.ft. range with perhaps about $200-250 average. Trump is a very high end building and it was sold at $300/sq.ft. bulk and I would expect it will come on at $400-450/sq.ft. However units are 2000 sq.ft under air (indoors) and up so it will still be expensive but all have ocean views. There are still buildings that are selling in Sunny Isles (Jade Beach/Ocean: can't remember which which is a luxury 40+ story tower on the ocean and is selling around $650-800 but was at or near $1000 before.

Big huge divide between new and old buildings. Problem is in FLorida many older buildings don't have reserve funds at all and are voted down so special assessments, defaults etc. are really hitting the market. However, they were also bid up stupidly over a short period of time. Also, mainly investor buildings are being hit very hard as well. A building cluster of 3 called the Beach Club in Hallendale had condos at $1.8 million that are now listed for $1 million (new never lived in 3000 sq.ft. on the ocean.) Even Trump in Sunny Isles is around $400/sq.ft. starting on the ocean though probably no direct ocean view and this was $600-700 before. And of course, is it selling and at what price. Main sales are cash now and approved short sales which are discounted. People who bought in the past 7 years (if not past 8-10 years) to now are probably under water from purchase price.

Hope this helps cdr.

 

[interested]

The higher end oceanfront buildings that I am familiar with have not dropped anywhere near that much from the peak. Ocean is Ocean. I'm not sure where you are looking Interested but my experience is much more moderate.

CN Tower,
where are you looking. If you are looking at the Gulfside, perhaps it is different. I can tell you that there has been some stabilization and certainly the very high end product while affected is not down to the degree I described as the very high end limited supply is now in the realm of alot of people who are willing to spend $1 million dollars and $20000 for tax and $18000 for condo fees. This was $1.5 to 2 million. The problem is more older on the beach area which have alot of expenses and attracted alot of speculation because it was more affordable.

I am looking for a bargain on the Atlantic side. Unfortunately, usually there is a catch. For eg. The Trump Hollywood is one of 3 new towers on the Ocean along Hollywood. The rest is built up. So do you want to have the $500/sq.ft. building when next door on either side is $250/sq.ft. However, if one can get the Trump for $400 for 2000 sq.ft., given the level of completion of the spot, it probably can't be replaced for that and being new will start out with a Reserve fund. But only 25 of 200 closed when 1 year ago when completed they had 130 or so of 200 sold.

The advantage of Sunny Isles, is that most of that has been built in the past 10 years so it is all relatively in the same price range without mainly older buildings around. I think to a degree a good buy in Sunny Isles for that reason would be safer.

 

[rbt]

Sounds like a better deal for him that you- 2 days and his client finds a property and he collects a 2.5% commission. Not bad. Most agents have to spend weeks or months looking diligently for their buyers.

The absolute last thing I want from an agent is their time, especially if I have to be there with him (I don't want to be home shopping as a second career).

If the agent can't interview me for an hour and present a half dozen options that fit what I'm looking for, then I need a new agent.

 

[interested]

So, a surge towards $1000PSF average downtown, then a pullback in late 2012 (doomsday will scare ppl, even though we know it's bs, much like the y2k nonsense...) to the fib $650 support area?

So does this mean UD you are out buying condos now?
I know you feel you can make easier money elsewhere but if average price in downtown is $600/ say $700 for the core: to $1000/sq.ft. by 2012 I am sure you would agree represents a good return, esp. if you have to put 25% down only.

PS what does FIB mean? Thanks. I get you are talking about a support floor price of $650/sq.ft.

 

[interested]

Thank you, Interested!

Your welcome. Maybe others have some further thoughts.

 

[cdr108]

PS what does FIB mean? Thanks. I get you are talking about a support floor price of $650/sq.ft.

considering his line of work, FIB=fibonacci technical analysis

 

[interested]

considering his line of work, FIB=fibonacci technical analysis

Thanks cdr. Can you or UD briefly and simply explani how fibonacci tech analysis would allow him to arrive at the conclusions he is making. Please remember you are talking to someone readily admitting he knows nothing more about Fibonacci than its sequence.

thank you guys.

 

[Condo George]

More self-serving rhetoric from the ridiculously conflicted industry talking head.

George, from now on you should add a disclaimer to your signature:

"Please note: I derive the bulk of my income from selling pre-construction condos. Have a nice day."

You think I make comments here for my pocket and not to share my opinion and knowledge ? Shallow thinking, I am done.