44th Canadian Federal Election

[christiesplits]

They may hold off.

Cases are starting to spike again in Ontario and BC which are a large chunk of the seats in the house.

Nobody wants to hold an election when cases are spiking.

Agreed, it would be irresponsible. And it could hurt the Liberals on Election Day.

 

[Bjays92]

They should've made the announcement a few weeks ago. I suspect it will still come nonetheless. I have to imagine the liberals feel relatively untouchable

 

[Videodrome]

The rising cases are largely in conservative run provinces though. This may help Trudeau.

 

[Richard White]

The rising cases are largely in conservative run provinces though. This may help Trudeau.

Especially in Ontario where Doug Ford is unpopular.

If there is a lockdown in Ontario during an election, Ontario will be seeing red.

 

[christiesplits]

Election call today unlikely.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424698696873254917

 

[Richard White]

Election call today unlikely.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424698696873254917

They are probably waiting to see where the numbers go before Trudeau walks across the street (or in this case the yard).

Calling an election with cases spiking is never a good idea. Nobody wants a scenario where cases are rising throughout the election period as that is both bad optics and will limit the number of people willing to get out to the polls.

 

[christiesplits]

They are probably waiting to see where the numbers go before Trudeau walks across the street (or in this case the yard).

Calling an election with cases spiking is never a good idea. Nobody wants a scenario where cases are rising throughout the election period as that is both bad optics and will limit the number of people willing to get out to the polls.

B.C. had an election last year, but I'm not sure if the number of cases at the time match current levels in Ontario.

 

[Northern Light]

I believe (and may stand to be corrected), that a decision was taken not to drop the writ until after Nova Scotia's election, which is on the 17th.

 

[Richard White]

I believe (and may stand to be corrected), that a decision was taken not to drop the writ until after Nova Scotia's election, which is on the 17th.

Which makes sense. It would cause confusion having two candidates of the same party show up for two different elections.

 

[Videodrome]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424743738295848969

Drop the writ I say.

 

[lenaitch]

I believe (and may stand to be corrected), that a decision was taken not to drop the writ until after Nova Scotia's election, which is on the 17th.

Given how unengaged much of the electorate is, I can envision folks showing up at a federal poll looking for the name of their provincial candidate. Besides, it would divide and muddy media attention.

Edit: They also might want to wait until things settle down in BC. There are a lot of people who are displaced and otherwise focused on more immediate concerns. The government might be afraid they would get punished at the polls for not being sensitive to their real concerns.

 

[Videodrome]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1425281814625718282

Hmm.....

 

[Bjays92]

There is no way the liberals don't call an election right now

 

[Rufus8]

Given how unengaged much of the electorate is, I can envision folks showing up at a federal poll looking for the name of their provincial candidate. Besides, it would divide and muddy media attention.

Edit: They also might want to wait until things settle down in BC. There are a lot of people who are displaced and otherwise focused on more immediate concerns. The government might be afraid they would get punished at the polls for not being sensitive to their real concerns.

Do you think the feds want to an election before Ontario's next year? That narrows down the time frame even more.

 

[lenaitch]

Do you think the feds want to an election before Ontario's next year? That narrows down the time frame even more.

Gad, who knows. I'm not schooled in the dark arts. Ontario isn't due until June. Current pandemic; concerns of 4th wave, BC fires, typical avoidance of a 'depth of winter' election and on and on. It does leave them next March/April, but who's know how the backroom strategizes things like polls, opposition positioning, pre-election largesse timing, etc.