407 Rail Freight Bypass/The Missing Link

[jcam]

A very valid question, that has multiple angles.

The first is whether the land is valued as a going concern ie railway versus as land by itself. The CP’s swath of real estate across North Toronto has sufficient value for development that CP must periodically wonder if they would be smarter to get out of the railway business and just build things. (In essence, that’s what the entire move off the Railway Lands has been about, up to and including the Raildeck Park story). One needs to stay grounded in the belief that Cp does see value in being a railway for the long term, and needs a route across town. And if they don’t, Metrolinx does. So selling the land to build on may be a fantasy. Further, cost of a new route would also be huge, and CP would not move simply out of kindness. The land valuation issues would be a big point of contention.

The second consideration is that railways prefer to own than to rent. On paper, the bypass route from Milton is flatter and shorter than the route CN currently uses. At face value, one ought to assume that the bypass would be cheaper, and even be able to quantify how much the bypass would save CN. That might inform how much they would be willing to pay the CIB for that opportunity, and that in turn might establish whether that looked like a good deal to CIB to be worth financing. On face value it’s a slam dunk…..Except…. once one establishes that there might be shared use of that asset with CP, and perhaps with GO/VIA, as some documents suggest….CN will get nervous about their ability to retain control of their operation, and whether they can retain needed capacity. It’s just safer to keep the asset that they have to themselves at present.

Lastly, railways are competitive about this stuff. Even if the bypass were built as two separate domains - one for CP, one for CN - CN knows how many miles of track CP has between Agincourt and Milton, and what their grades are, etc. If CN found that the bypass reduced CP’s costs more than it reduced CN’s, then as a simple matter of competitive equity CN would oppose the deal - and CP would also as vice versa.

So yeah, on some macro level one can construct a balance sheet with puts and takes that would look like economic sense to the railways. And yes, if there was the right ROI, it’s exactly the sort of infrastructure project that the CIB was set up to facilitate. But I can’t see it happening without a big policy nudge. Even with the CIB offering cheap money, Railways just don’t budge on these things, even for money, unless their other interests and risks align.

- Paul

Paul, great thoughts as usual. This IS the type of messy project the CIB was intended (in its ideal state) to facilitate. Question is whether the new regime is ready to think bigger. Just to clarify, my thinking on redevelopment of land was intended to keep a transit corridor at a minimum, so the land value I'm talking about is centred on the Agincourt Yard, Lambton Yard, etc....would be sale of minimum corridor width to Metrolinx, with all surplus to be dealt with separately.

 

[crs1026]

^I’m sure CP has irons in the fire with respect to Agincourt. As with everything in land development, it can take years for projects to come together.

Lambton is interesting, because CP can’t figure out how to keep it closed. Every time they clear it out, it fills up with cars all over again. Tearing up the tracks might be the only option. But I’m sure it too has development potential.

The only way I can see the Bypass happening is for a third party to build it (here’s where CIB funding comes in) and then declare a move-in price offer for each railroad, with a very messy negotiation around that price.

- Paul

 

[mdu]

As mentioned in the GO Construction thread, both the federal and provincial governments seem to be gesturing towards direct capacity improvements to the Milton corridor. I also recall Mx CEO Verster also indicating that he did not believe that the Missing Link was necessary, and today's statements reflect that reality. I very much doubt the Missing Link will be serious planned at a provincial level for a long time.

 

[innsertnamehere]

If it's cheaper to build dedicated go tracks on the milton line than to bypass freight tracks from the line intirely, who cares?

The Kitchener line still has some issues through downtown Brampton, but even those probably have some solutions which are more affordable than the missing link.

 

[nfitz]

The Kitchener line still has some issues through downtown Brampton, but even those probably have some solutions which are more affordable than the missing link.

Indeed. A grade separation and another track or two should solve that. Solutions that have worked fine elsewhere.

 

[Amare]

Sure capacity improvements and additional trackage would help and would be well worth the money on the Milton Line, no one is arguing about that (at least i'm not). But both the Feds and the province need to get their head out of their collective a**** and start having the foresight to think ahead for once in their bloody lives. The missing link would allow the Toronto midtown corridor to be freed up, which would allow for passenger rail service along this very key corridor. Obviously they dont realize just how much substantial demand their would be for this kind of service, and it would monumentally transform commuting patterns in the city.

 

[crs1026]

Sure capacity improvements and additional trackage would help and would be well worth the money on the Milton Line, no one is arguing about that (at least i'm not). But both the Feds and the province need to get their head out of their collective a**** and start having the foresight to think ahead for once in their bloody lives. The missing link would allow the Toronto midtown corridor to be freed up, which would allow for passenger rail service along this very key corridor. Obviously they dont realize just how much substantial demand their would be for this kind of service, and it would monumentally transform commuting patterns in the city.

The situation east of West Toronto is no different than further west towards Milton - there's room to fit two GO tracks in alongside the two CP tracks, at least to Mount Pleasant where the bridges over ravines begin.. So getting a cross town passenger corridor does not really depend on evicting the freight line. It can be done affordably once the subways and RER have been paid for.

Moving CP off its mid-Toronto line, and presumably squeezing it into the corridor owned by CN, is a whole tangle of issues. One aspect is forcing something on both freight railways that neither of them wants. Our hands-off federal transportation policy just doesn't encourage that.

The second issue is that a shift places the total environmental impact, and the risk of freight accidents in the GTA on residents of Vaughan/Markham, to the benefit of residents in central Toronto. That may seem like a good deal as a simple x votes lost for y votes gained proposition, but the perception of government giving Toronto that kind of relief while asking the burbs to take the hit, would be toxic. No provincial or federal party is going to take sides on that one.

While the logic of getting freight away from the city centre is certainly appealing, and downright sensible given relative population density and adjacency.... maybe it's better if Toronto shares in the risks and environmental nuisances of having CP run right through the middle of town. The fear of what might happen might actually force political and regulatory attention where hiding the freight up in the less dense burbs might not. the more I think of it, the technocratic solution might not set things up in the best way to drive accountability.

- Paul

 

[Amare]

The situation east of West Toronto is no different than further west towards Milton - there's room to fit two GO tracks in alongside the two CP tracks, at least to Mount Pleasant where the bridges over ravines begin.. So getting a cross town passenger corridor does not really depend on evicting the freight line. It can be done affordably once the subways and RER have been paid for.

Moving CP off its mid-Toronto line, and presumably squeezing it into the corridor owned by CN, is a whole tangle of issues. One aspect is forcing something on both freight railways that neither of them wants. Our hands-off federal transportation policy just doesn't encourage that.

The second issue is that a shift places the total environmental impact, and the risk of freight accidents in the GTA on residents of Vaughan/Markham, to the benefit of residents in central Toronto. That may seem like a good deal as a simple x votes lost for y votes gained proposition, but the perception of government giving Toronto that kind of relief while asking the burbs to take the hit, would be toxic. No provincial or federal party is going to take sides on that one.

While the logic of getting freight away from the city centre is certainly appealing, and downright sensible given relative population density and adjacency.... maybe it's better if Toronto shares in the risks and environmental nuisances of having CP run right through the middle of town. The fear of what might happen might actually force political and regulatory attention where hiding the freight up in the less dense burbs might not. the more I think of it, the technocratic solution might not set things up in the best way to drive accountability.

- Paul

All the points you raise are certainly valid and true, and really point towards political will to implement that solution.

The problem these days is virtually all politicians these days lack the cajones to do things at a grand scale. Squeezing CP and CN into a corridor (with potential separate tracks for a segment of trackage) shouldnt be really be a prime concern of the government. The Feds have been acting as if the transportation industry is still in the 20th century, and it's only recently they've started to look into doing something about it through their various studies and all that.

As for the environmental impact in terms of freight accidents, that's something that really should not be of significant concern if the worry was just about upsetting residents who live along the freight bypass corridor. The populaion that lives along the 407 corridor significantly pales in comparison to the population the lives along the midtown corridor. Frankly I wouldnt care much about potentially pissing off only ~5000-10,000 residents vs. the tens of thousands of residents who would be relieved of freight traffic, and who would benefit from expansive new transit options (which could even include those living in Mississauga).

 

[drum118]

The situation east of West Toronto is no different than further west towards Milton - there's room to fit two GO tracks in alongside the two CP tracks, at least to Mount Pleasant where the bridges over ravines begin.. So getting a cross town passenger corridor does not really depend on evicting the freight line. It can be done affordably once the subways and RER have been paid for.

Moving CP off its mid-Toronto line, and presumably squeezing it into the corridor owned by CN, is a whole tangle of issues. One aspect is forcing something on both freight railways that neither of them wants. Our hands-off federal transportation policy just doesn't encourage that.

The second issue is that a shift places the total environmental impact, and the risk of freight accidents in the GTA on residents of Vaughan/Markham, to the benefit of residents in central Toronto. That may seem like a good deal as a simple x votes lost for y votes gained proposition, but the perception of government giving Toronto that kind of relief while asking the burbs to take the hit, would be toxic. No provincial or federal party is going to take sides on that one.

While the logic of getting freight away from the city centre is certainly appealing, and downright sensible given relative population density and adjacency.... maybe it's better if Toronto shares in the risks and environmental nuisances of having CP run right through the middle of town. The fear of what might happen might actually force political and regulatory attention where hiding the freight up in the less dense burbs might not. the more I think of it, the technocratic solution might not set things up in the best way to drive accountability.

- Paul

As I stated in the past, neither railway want to be in the same corridor as it will have an impact on each other operation even with a 4/5 track corridor. It also exposed both RR and the communities they run through with a greater chance of derailment with more effect on everyone than one on a one system line. Most of all, a greater effect than the 1979 Mississauga derailment if a derailment took place when both lines were passing each other,.

Both corridors can be 4 track with room for a 5th at various location.

Downtown Brampton in the past could see 3 tracks with a 4th been fitted in, but with the removal of the office building and narrowing Railroad road as well pushing the VIA station north, easy to fit in the 4 tracks. Downside is the closing of Mills St and the streets east of Queen St as there is no way you can grade separate them. Cars can drive around the close road, but a pedestrian tunnel is need.

When CP arm Quebec Central built the current mainline into Toronto, it was outside the city limit, not the centre of Toronto like it is today..

At the end of the day, moving the RR lines to another location than where they are currently are will add extra operation cost, longer travel time and will still effect communities like they do today. No one know what the areas where the new lines will run through will look like 25-100 years down the road, nor how goods will be move then.

Adding bridges where require is a fact of life and easy to do at a cost. Grade separation is a different story that will have a higher cost and impact on the areas where they need to be done, A number of location will never see grade separation as it is impossible to do it without doing a major tear down of the area. CP line in Mississauga have a number of these locations starting with Mississauga Rd as well in Streetsville. Even the Lakeshore line in Mississauga has the same issues at various locations.

 

[drum118]

All the points you raise are certainly valid and true, and really point towards political will to implement that solution.

The problem these days is virtually all politicians these days lack the cajones to do things at a grand scale. Squeezing CP and CN into a corridor (with potential separate tracks for a segment of trackage) shouldnt be really be a prime concern of the government. The Feds have been acting as if the transportation industry is still in the 20th century, and it's only recently they've started to look into doing something about it through their various studies and all that.

As for the environmental impact in terms of freight accidents, that's something that really should not be of significant concern if the worry was just about upsetting residents who live along the freight bypass corridor. The populaion that lives along the 407 corridor significantly pales in comparison to the population the lives along the midtown corridor. Frankly I wouldnt care much about potentially pissing off only ~5000-10,000 residents vs. the tens of thousands of residents who would be relieved of freight traffic, and who would benefit from expansive new transit options (which could even include those living in Mississauga).

It is a big different between traffic on the 407 vs the RR that is about 100' from your house. There is more than 50,000 next to CP line and one reason crash walls are now being built along the property line of new residential development.

Having to deal with the Mississauga derailment in 1979 as well a few others, the effect is felt for a larger area where you are over 100,000 than your small numbers.

Both CN and CP needs to move to the 21st century world of having electrification in their corridors even if it is only over 2 of the 4 track.

 

[robmausser]

If it's cheaper to build dedicated go tracks on the milton line than to bypass freight tracks from the line intirely, who cares?

The Kitchener line still has some issues through downtown Brampton, but even those probably have some solutions which are more affordable than the missing link.

Not only that, but if the Missing Link is built and the Milton Line is triple tracked, heaven forbid they get express service.

 

[Allandale25]

Latest version of a map showing the Missing Link in this map from the City of Mississauga as part of their federal election campaign asks as shown in this article:

Erin O’Toole visits Mississauga to convince Peel voters to return

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole was in Mississauga on Friday as the federal election enters its final phase with him in a neck-and-neck race alongside Justin Trudeau.

thepointer.com

 

[crs1026]

^Malton GO has been incorrectly placed…. or is there a hint in that?

- Paul

 

[kamira51]

Any news on this project?

The provincial elections are soon and I was wondering if any party has this on their platform.

 

[Bordercollie]

Any news on this project?

The provincial elections are soon and I was wondering if any party has this on their platform.

Its not that hard to build beside the YORK sub. You will need to build some bridges thou.