2025 Canadian General Election

[DSCToronto]

One of my neighbours got THIS email, rather reeks of desperation to me!!

 

[afransen]

Polievre's riding of Carleton saw the highest advance turnout in the nation, at 45%

Edit to add: Elections Canada has made the extraordinary move, in light of the above, to allow vote counting to begin six hours before polls close in that riding.

The results will not be released until after polls close.

However, this should mean a fairly clear picture on the outcome in that riding in the first hour or so after the polls close.

That's probably also in part due to the stunt pulled by a pro-electoral reform group of registering 80+ candidates to make PP's riding the longest ballot in the country. That will surely hamper the count there. Maybe Elections Canada will throw an army of resources at it, but it's possible we won't see results there until very late.

 

[afransen]

I wonder what this means, beyond an enthusiastic engagement level? Are these Liberal voters eager to smash Poilievre, or diehard Cons wanting to ensure their man wins. We have no way of knowing of course, as we don't do exit polls, thank goodness. But this will be one to watch tonight! That and the erasure of the Greens and much of the NDP.

And then there's Quebec, where Radio Canada has reported on the tweet, https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/fr/nouvelle/2160946/trump-vote-canada-canadiens. In 2000 the Liberals won their best ever showing in post-BQ Quebec with 48% of the seats. I expect they'll win over half of Quebec's seats this time around. And every seat in Atlantic Canada.

I imagine all the parties were really emphasizing early voting there, and voters might have been more inclined to heed the call, due to the unusual ballot they have in Carlton. There will likely be long lines to vote on election day.

 

[Jonny5]

Jason Kenney is on CBC for their election night coverage?
CBC!
Oh, the irony.

 

[Jonny5]

I wonder what this means, beyond an enthusiastic engagement level? Are these Liberal voters eager to smash Poilievre, or diehard Cons wanting to ensure their man wins. We have no way of knowing of course, as we don't do exit polls, thank goodness. But this will be one to watch tonight! That and the erasure of the Greens and much of the NDP.

The riding is a mix of suburban and exurban Ottawa region towns, plus some rural areas, all known to be highly populated with federal government workers, and the word is they came out in force after Poilievre became accepted as basically planning to slash the federal government workforce DOGE-style, even if he hasn't actually said that, the perception is rampant that happens if he wins.

 

[lenaitch]

I found the official rationale. Apparently it's not just the high advance turnout, it's that it's also the riding targeted by those clowns in the Longest Ballot Committee and each ballot has 91 candidates and is as long as an adult giraffe's leg.

Fact sheet: Counting ballots in the electoral district of Carleton

Fact sheet: Counting ballots in the electoral district of Carleton

www.elections.ca

That would make sense:

A guy on another forum voted in the advanced poll in that riding and was chatting with one of the staff who said one of the problems was the number that can fit in a standard ballot box. Apparently, the boxes will hold about 100 typical ballots. This one, about 15.

I'm surprised they don't use scantron ballots in situations like this

Not currently allowed federally. I actually like our old school methods, particularly in contrast with the silliness that goes on in the US seemingly every election. It might take a little longer and require a few more temporary staff, I think it is worth it.

 

[lenaitch]

What happens if it's a 50/50 split in seat counts?

I doubt that could happen this time around since we have an odd number of ridings.

Otherwise, I'm not completely certain, but I believe the convention is the incumbent (Liberal) government would be invited to demonstrate to the GG that they somehow enjoy the confidence of the House and allowed to form a government (after backroom wrangling with either other parties or even individual members). The Speaker has nothing to do with since, at this point, a Speaker has not be elected yet.

 

[Jonny5]

I think this data from CBC on New Brunswick shows what's going to happen across the country.

 

[Jonny5]

Well here we go. Ontario and Quebec polls closing now.

 

[Northern Light]

When one is looking at preliminary seat totals out of Atlantic Canada, the Liberals may have cause for concern, they have underperformed expectations.

That said, that's less than 10% of the seat total for the country.......so the real deal news is yet to come.

 

[Richard White]

When one is looking at preliminary seat totals out of Atlantic Canada, the Liberals may have cause for concern, they have underperformed expectations.

That said, that's less than 10% of the seat total for the country.......so the real deal news is yet to come.

They are tentatively up by 20 nationally.

BQ and NDP support is tanking in Quebec

 

[Northern Light]

They are tentatively up by 20 nationally.

BQ and NDP support is tanking in Quebec

What's interesting under the hood is that the Liberal popular vote is over-performing, while the seat count is under-performing.

Still early. No assumptions just yet.

But fascinating.

 

[Richard White]

Depending on how tonight's election plays out I've got a placeholder thread for the next one here: https://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/46th-canadian-federal-election.42005/

 

[Coolibop]

And it's done. Cbc calls for the Liberals.

 

[Jonny5]