2025 Canadian General Election

[Northern Light]

Polievre's riding of Carleton saw the highest advance turnout in the nation, at 45%

Edit to add: Elections Canada has made the extraordinary move, in light of the above, to allow vote counting to begin six hours before polls close in that riding.

The results will not be released until after polls close.

However, this should mean a fairly clear picture on the outcome in that riding in the first hour or so after the polls close.

 

[Richard White]

Polievre's riding of Carleton saw the highest advance turnout in the nation, at 45%

Edit to add: Elections Canada has made the extraordinary move, in light of the above, to allow vote counting to begin six hours before polls close in that riding.

The results will not be released until after polls close.

However, this should mean a fairly clear picture on the outcome in that riding in the first hour or so after the polls close.

I wonder how many other ridings will be delayed due to high turnout on election day.

I also wonder if this election has been so polarized by Trump that we see something reminiscent of the 1984 Election where Mulroney walked away with 211 seats.

 

[slickpete83]

^ yeah could be , one flaw with these polls like nanos etc.. , from what i understand its a computer that generates random phone numbers and makes calls , but the problem is most young people don't pick up unknown numbers or hang up lol.. ,so maybe only older people are answering these polls and another thing is that we all now have mobile phones rather then home phones so tracking exact location is hard, I personally just hang up I don't know if its real or just a scam

 

[Admiral Beez]

Polievre's riding of Carleton saw the highest advance turnout in the nation, at 45%

I wonder what this means, beyond an enthusiastic engagement level? Are these Liberal voters eager to smash Poilievre, or diehard Cons wanting to ensure their man wins. We have no way of knowing of course, as we don't do exit polls, thank goodness. But this will be one to watch tonight! That and the erasure of the Greens and much of the NDP.

And then there's Quebec, where Radio Canada has reported on the tweet, https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/fr/nouvelle/2160946/trump-vote-canada-canadiens. In 2000 the Liberals won their best ever showing in post-BQ Quebec with 48% of the seats. I expect they'll win over half of Quebec's seats this time around. And every seat in Atlantic Canada.

 

[Richard White]

I wonder what this means, beyond an enthusiastic engagement level? Are these Liberal voters eager to smash Poilievre, or diehard Cons wanting to ensure their man wins. We have no way of knowing of course, as we don't do exit polls, thank goodness. But this will be one to watch tonight!

What happens if it's a 50/50 split in seat counts?

 

[Admiral Beez]

What happens if it's a 50/50 split in seat counts?

It's not codified anywhere in Westminster tradition, but AIUI, the government stands as is for the moment, with the Speaker voting to maintain the status quo. Unless some members of the opposition will support the government, a new election is called. I did a quick check on ChatGPT:

Quebec, Canada — 1878 Election​

• Result:
  
  • Conservatives: 32 seats
  • Liberals: 32 seats
• What happened:
  
  • It triggered negotiations and cross-floor support.
  • A coalition-like government managed to function briefly.
• Key point: This showed that even in strict 50/50 outcomes, the Westminster model defaulted to negotiation first, not immediate collapse.

 

[evandyk]

Polievre's riding of Carleton saw the highest advance turnout in the nation, at 45%

Edit to add: Elections Canada has made the extraordinary move, in light of the above, to allow vote counting to begin six hours before polls close in that riding.

I found the official rationale. Apparently it's not just the high advance turnout, it's that it's also the riding targeted by those clowns in the Longest Ballot Committee and each ballot has 91 candidates and is as long as an adult giraffe's leg.

Fact sheet: Counting ballots in the electoral district of Carleton

Fact sheet: Counting ballots in the electoral district of Carleton

www.elections.ca

 

[Richard White]

I found the official rationale. Apparently it's not just the high advance turnout, it's that it's also the riding targeted by those clowns in the Longest Ballot Committee and each ballot has 91 candidates and is as long as an adult giraffe's leg.

Fact sheet: Counting ballots in the electoral district of Carleton

Fact sheet: Counting ballots in the electoral district of Carleton

www.elections.ca

I'm surprised they don't use scantron ballots in situations like this

 

[picard102]

^ yeah could be , one flaw with these polls like nanos etc.. , from what i understand its a computer that generates random phone numbers and makes calls , but the problem is most young people don't pick up unknown numbers or hang up lol.. ,so maybe only older people are answering these polls and another thing is that we all now have mobile phones rather then home phones so tracking exact location is hard, I personally just hang up I don't know if its real or just a scam

But they also do online polling, and their models account, or should, for any imbalance.

 

[PinkLucy]

I found the official rationale. Apparently it's not just the high advance turnout, it's that it's also the riding targeted by those clowns in the Longest Ballot Committee and each ballot has 91 candidates and is as long as an adult giraffe's leg.

Fact sheet: Counting ballots in the electoral district of Carleton

Fact sheet: Counting ballots in the electoral district of Carleton

www.elections.ca

I am sitting here working a poll and looking at the piles of paperwork required for a ballot with just a few names. What a nightmare to deal with 91!

 

[evandyk]

This is why the results in the St. Paul's byelection weren't announced until early the next morning, despite low turnout. Quick learners at Elections Canada!

 

[evandyk]

I'm surprised they don't use scantron ballots in situations like this

I think it's a point of pride for Elections Canada that they have always hand-counted every single ballot. They read every vote out loud, and scrutineers from the parties are allowed to ask to see the ballots to make sure the counter has counted it right. At the end of the box of ballots, someone else validates that the box is empty. Pretty much the gold standard for ensuring transparency and accountability in vote counting.

 

[Richard White]

I think it's a point of pride for Elections Canada that they have always hand-counted every single ballot. They read every vote out loud, and scrutineers from the parties are allowed to ask to see the ballots to make sure the counter has counted it right. At the end of the box of ballots, someone else validates that the box is empty. Pretty much the gold standard for ensuring transparency and accountability in vote counting.

That I can understand although at some point somethings gotta give.

Either you electrify the ballots or you limit the number of candidates (which is unconstitutional)

 

[Admiral Beez]

That I can understand although at some point somethings gotta give.

Either you electrify the ballots or you limit the number of candidates (which is unconstitutional)

Don't let the exceptions set the rule. If you need more counters, get them.

The only hanging chads I want to hear about are in the village.

 

[adma]

That I can understand although at some point somethings gotta give.

Either you electrify the ballots or you limit the number of candidates (which is unconstitutional)

There are other means in place, real or potential, to limit nuisance cases like the Longest Ballot types.

One other advantage of Elections Canada's "old school" methods (besides being immune to potential bad-actor electronic tampering): a good, generous number of polling subdivisions rather than the "megapolls" which have come together w/electronic balloting in many jurisdictions. (My own polling location had *9* polls--as opposed to the single megapoll it had provincially. And from an electoral-psephology standpoint as well as a manageable-proportion tool for future campaigns, that's more satisfying.)