2025 Canadian General Election

[Johnny Au]

PP being PP of course:

Source:

https://www.reddit.com/r/onguardforthee/comments/1k5jygj/liberal_campaign_advertisement

 

[afransen]

The crime related stuff is going to lead to a massive increase in the prison population in a country which is already severely undersupplied on prison capacity. And no discussions on increasing prison capacity either.

The Conservative policies on housing affordability will likely do far more for middle class Canadians on housing affordability than anything in the Liberal platform - but definitely a lot of weak points elsewhere. The budgeting of it all is also all off with a lot of bad math going on. A lot of the tax cut promises are going to cut a lot more revenue than they are assuming.

PP is also on record that they have no plans to increase prison capacity to support these policies, since we are apparently reserving space for all these repeat offenders who only briefly leave custody.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

RGI housing is wildly expensive. Like, absurdly so. Think $500k in subsidy *per unit*. A $1 billion RGI program would deliver maybe 2,000 units. It's not practical at scale, and ultimately serves only a small proportion of the population as you note.

Er..with the risk of being overly personal here...the government (on any level) is not paying $500k for this unit, not even close, lol...which is a recent RGI conversion. Then again, this unit is not penthouse suite in The Selby in an example...so I can only say this in the anecdote. So while I am not saying RGI isn't expensive to subsidize, but I am pretty sure that figure you stated is way, way too high even in our current market.

 

[innsertnamehere]

PP is also on record that they have no plans to increase prison capacity to support these policies, since we are apparently reserving space for all these repeat offenders who only briefly leave custody.

It all comes back to housing!

 

[innsertnamehere]

Their pledge to reduce development charges by half could make townhomes and multiplex units more attainable for middleclass homebuyers and increase supply, in addition to the reduced building costs of condos and purpose built rentals. It's not as transformative as the Ontario Liberal plan to eliminate development charges for homes under 3000sf however. They'll need to reach agreements with provinces to freeze development charges and/or roll them back to 2018 levels, similar to Vaughn's initiative.

Either way the next government will need to address the demand side of the housing equation, and not only capping immigration. Absent that and Canada will likely still be in the midst of a housing crisis four years from now.

the DC charge reduction pledge, like their GST cut pledge, is too conditional.

Economists have been clear that the largest shortage and component of the market which faces the largest shortages are family-sized homes, which primarily come in the form of townhouses and detached. The Liberal DC charge cut promise is for "multi-unit homes". This will continue to prop up apartments while municipalities are free to continue to charge $150k+ in DCs for any lowrise product.

The GST cut would be a critical component to drive demand for new construction by cutting the cost of new housing by 5% overnight (more if the provinces join the Feds in cutting PST as well). But the liberals put a magical asterisk by restricting it to "new home buyers" only - who are a very, very small portion of the new home market. The new home market is the most expensive form of housing, few people are buying new housing as their first home.

 

[11th]

So the issue is we’re getting an economist as opposed to a lawyer?

Not an issue that we are getting an economist to deal with current Trump originated economy turmoil. I am questioning who has a bigger role in handling the economy, and would he be just as effective if he is BoC governor instead?

 

[guavadelic]

the DC charge reduction pledge, like their GST cut pledge, is too conditional.

Economists have been clear that the largest shortage and component of the market which faces the largest shortages are family-sized homes, which primarily come in the form of townhouses and detached. The Liberal DC charge cut promise is for "multi-unit homes". This will continue to prop up apartments while municipalities are free to continue to charge $150k+ in DCs for any lowrise product.

The GST cut would be a critical component to drive demand for new construction by cutting the cost of new housing by 5% overnight (more if the provinces join the Feds in cutting PST as well). But the liberals put a magical asterisk by restricting it to "new home buyers" only - who are a very, very small portion of the new home market. The new home market is the most expensive form of housing, few people are buying new housing as their first home.

Wouldn't townhomes be considered multi-unit homes and thus eligible for the DC reduction?

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

Not an issue that we are getting an economist to deal with current Trump originated economy turmoil. I am questioning who has a bigger role in handling the economy, and would he be just as effective if he is BoC governor instead?

Likely? Can't really say...running a bank is not like running a country. Then again, defending a client in court is not like running a country either in that example...

...I will say though that since the BoC is tied to our economics, Carney will likely have a better grasp of that than most. And for what that's worth.

 

[chrisw]

Ontario raises questions over future of $10-a-day child-care deal | Globalnews.ca

Education Minister Paul Calandra sent a letter to parents on Tuesday raising concerns as the federal election campaign enters its final, frenzied stretch.

globalnews.ca

Ontario government sends letters to parents regarding the expiry of the current childcare deal in March 2026. Either pressuring the CPC to commit to extending the agreement or an endorsement of the LPC. Quite the move.

"In the letter, seen by Global News, Calandra said Ontario had “informed the federal government” it would like to see $10-a-day child care renewed. The current agreement, he wrote, is set to expire at the end of March 2026.

The Liberal platform says it would “protect and strengthen” $10-a-day child care and increase support for public and non-profit centres. The Conservative party’s platform promises to “honour existing deals” with provinces and territories to provide $10-a-day child care."

 

[evandyk]

I thought Ontario and Canada had recently signed a deal for an extension?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-announces-20-billion-child-care-deal-provinces-1.7476199

 

[Admiral Beez]

What of the west? What are the chances of the Liberals keeping and growing beyond their two seats in Alberta (Edmonton Centre, and Calgary Skyview)? A few more wins in Alberta, along with a PM from Edmonton, may help defuse some of that Alberta isolation. What about Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives own every riding? In Manitoba the Liberals own five of the 17 seats - will they get some of the four owned by the NDP?

 

[Richard White]

What of the west? What are the chances of the Liberals keeping and growing beyond their two seats in Alberta (Edmonton Centre, and Calgary Skyview)? A few more wins in Alberta, along with a PM from Edmonton, may help defuse some of that Alberta isolation. What about Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives own every riding? In Manitoba the Liberals own five of the 17 seats - will they get some of the four owned by the NDP?

Short of Trump invading Canada (and even then) there is no way the west will vote Liberal.

 

[adma]

What of the west? What are the chances of the Liberals keeping and growing beyond their two seats in Alberta (Edmonton Centre, and Calgary Skyview)? A few more wins in Alberta, along with a PM from Edmonton, may help defuse some of that Alberta isolation. What about Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives own every riding? In Manitoba the Liberals own five of the 17 seats - will they get some of the four owned by the NDP?

Sask is practically guaranteed at least one new Lib seat, thanks to the far-north Desnethe et al riding being redrawn into an indigenous-dominant seat.

As for Manitoba, the NDP has only 3. Niki Ashton's Churchill looks a possibility, Elmwood-Transcona's more of an NDP/CPC seat going off the recent byelection win (that is, the Libs *there* are genuinely a "wasted vote"), and Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre is a powerhouse that's likelier to be a "Stiles Democrat" kind of local-machine survivor. All politics is local, IOW (something forgotten when projection sites advance a myth of generic "waves")

 

[Jonny5]

The Star reporting there is some concern behind the scenes that Poilievre is at risk of losing his riding to the Liberals.
Carleton is a sort of mixed exurban and rural area but is populated by a lot of federal government workers that commute to Ottawa, and many of them fear there will be mass job cuts under a Conservative government.

Conservatives pour resources into Pierre Poilievre’s riding amid fears of a tight race

The federal Conservatives are funnelling resources into Pierre Poilievre’s local campaign, shoring up volunteer support in the leader’s Ottawa-area riding over concerns that winning his seat is not guaranteed, the

www.thestar.com

 

[Richard White]

The Star reporting there is some concern behind the scenes that Poilievre is at risk of losing his riding to the Liberals.
Carleton is a sort of mixed exurban and rural area but is populated by a lot of federal government workers that commute to Ottawa, and many fear there will be mass job cuts under a Conservative government.

Conservatives pour resources into Pierre Poilievre’s riding amid fears of a tight race

The federal Conservatives are funnelling resources into Pierre Poilievre’s local campaign, shoring up volunteer support in the leader’s Ottawa-area riding over concerns that winning his seat is not guaranteed, the

www.thestar.com

I heard that as well.

If he loses his seat and the conservatives can't pull off a win he is toast.

It would be interesting to see the effects if Jagmeet and PP both lose their seats.