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2025 Canadian General Election

I am told a higher voter turnout doesn't usually favour the Conservatives...

...but I am not sure I would stake anything on that. So please get out and vote when you can! And don't do what the Dems did in the last US Election and stay home! >.<
 
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UtakataNoAnnex said:
I am told a higher voter turnout doesn't usually favour the Conservatives...

...but I am not sure I would stake anything on that. So please get out and vote when you can! And don't do what the Dems did in the last US Election and stay home! >.<
Click to expand...

Generally, the conventional wisdom is that higher than normal turnout favours the candidate that represents change, which should be the conservatives here.

But to determine whether turnout is "higher than normal" you need something to compare it to. Since we have never had advance voting on a holiday weekend before, it's pretty tough to say whether 7.3 is more than you would have expected or less.
 
Bayer said:
A referendum every time a tax increase is proposed? What nonsense.
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Ontario has that law. So now when the Ontario government passes a bill that includes a tax increase, they don't actually have to hold a referendum, but they do have to include in the new law a provision stating that the tax increase applies notwithstanding anything set out in the Taxpayer Protection Act of 1999.

It's one of the dumber laws we have on the books.
 
Northern Light said:
There are a smattering of good ideas buried in that doc........... which is loooong, one area they didn't need to copy Liberal habits...

But the bad ideas that will never fly........are quite abundant.......

Defunding Englsh CBC TV is needlessly controversial and stupid.

But its the tough on crime stuff that includes the most problems......it has a series of proposals that aside from not being grounded in evidence, would almost certainly fail their first constitutional test.

Life sentences for Fentanyl trafficking. No chance.

Three strikes laws, which the U.S. has largely been un-doing as it was expensive, resulted in severe overcrowding of prisons, and wasn't effective, not to mention terribly unjust in some cases. I don't see that passing
constitutional muster here either.

Jailing people in homeless encampments if they've been cleared repeatedly.

If a convicted murderer withholds information on where the bodies are.........they can be held indefinitely........ no way does that pass muster and it directly conflicts with the right not to self incriminate.

Just so much junk.

****

There's a proposal to expand the port at Churchhilll and make it an icebreaker base. While I'm open to this in theory, there's a very sensitive whale estuary/calving ground nearby to keep in mind. Also the Hudson's Bay polar bear population is reliant on intact sea ice.

****

Its a shame that some genuinely decent ideas are buried in a morass of really, really bad ones.

I also find some of the costing assumptions suspect.........
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The crime related stuff is going to lead to a massive increase in the prison population in a country which is already severely undersupplied on prison capacity. And no discussions on increasing prison capacity either.

The Conservative policies on housing affordability will likely do far more for middle class Canadians on housing affordability than anything in the Liberal platform - but definitely a lot of weak points elsewhere. The budgeting of it all is also all off with a lot of bad math going on. A lot of the tax cut promises are going to cut a lot more revenue than they are assuming.
 
Bayer said:
I oppose any kind of public assistance for home ownership. I think we should rather invest a lot more in social housing or rent-geared-to-income housing. I have a friend who is 69 and cannot retire, because you cannot apply unless you are already destitute, and then you still have to wait 8 to 10 years for an apartment.
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RGI housing is wildly expensive. Like, absurdly so. Think $500k in subsidy *per unit*. A $1 billion RGI program would deliver maybe 2,000 units. It's not practical at scale, and ultimately serves only a small proportion of the population as you note.

If we want to deliver housing affordability to millions of Canadians, we need to either create a massive social housing machine with hundreds of billions in subsidies (impractical), or find ways for market-rate housing to be delivered in a way which the median Canadian can afford. The latter requires Canadians to be able to access the required capital (raise median incomes and provide appropriate support for access to mortgages which Canadians can afford and which cover the cost of new housing) and to lower the cost to deliver new housing, which requires lower tax and regulatory burdens.

The big problem to me with the Liberal housing platform is that it focuses on continuing to subsidize and build out rental and low-income housing. Important work, but it's not what Canadians aspire to and not what many complain about when it comes to housing affordability - most Canadians still manage to make rent every month. The problem is that they feel stuck in their rental units and ownership options seem out of reach.
 
evandyk said:
Generally, the conventional wisdom is that higher than normal turnout favours the candidate that represents change, which should be the conservatives here.
Click to expand...
This would likely be true if Trump never won the last US Election. However, that "change" has already happened thanks to him. Now the onus appears to be on the candidate and party to best deal with that...which will likely also bring "change" regardless. So this would likely favour the Liberals here.
 
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of the advance voting increase by riding. That might tell us if it's happening in Conservative safe seats, Liberal safe seats, or all over.

Though the reports I saw about line-ups were all for very urban ridings - I don't think any were Conservative safe seats.

This could very likely just a trend in how people vote. Look at 2021 - advance polls were were 5.8 million, up from 4.7 million in 2019. But the total number of people who voted dropped from 18.4 million to 17.2 million! Major party support was pretty much unchanged.
 
innsertnamehere said:
The big problem to me with the Liberal housing platform is that it focuses on continuing to subsidize and build out rental and low-income housing. Important work, but it's not what Canadians aspire to and not what many complain about when it comes to housing affordability - most Canadians still manage to make rent every month. The problem is that they feel stuck in their rental units and ownership options seem out of reach.
Click to expand...
Their pledge to reduce development charges by half could make townhomes and multiplex units more attainable for middleclass homebuyers and increase supply, in addition to the reduced building costs of condos and purpose built rentals. It's not as transformative as the Ontario Liberal plan to eliminate development charges for homes under 3000sf however. They'll need to reach agreements with provinces to freeze development charges and/or roll them back to 2018 levels, similar to Vaughn's initiative.

Either way the next government will need to address the demand side of the housing equation, and not only capping immigration. Absent that and Canada will likely still be in the midst of a housing crisis four years from now.
 
nfitz said:
... This could very likely just a trend in how people vote...
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Yes, I think more people are realizing they can do this, and get it done ahead of election day line-ups. And how many people are really still undecided at that point?
I think it must be 20 years or more now since I last waited for the election day (at any level). I remember getting there right as the polls were opening, only to see a long line of senior citizens (and the buses and vans that had brought them parked nearby) already waiting at the entrance.
 
nfitz said:
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of the advance voting increase by riding. That might tell us if it's happening in Conservative safe seats, Liberal safe seats, or all over.

Though the reports I saw about line-ups were all for very urban ridings - I don't think any were Conservative safe seats.

This could very likely just a trend in how people vote. Look at 2021 - advance polls were were 5.8 million, up from 4.7 million in 2019. But the total number of people who voted dropped from 18.4 million to 17.2 million! Major party support was pretty much unchanged.
Click to expand...
According to Elections Canada, "A breakdown of the estimated number of electors who voted at the advance polls for all electoral districts is being calculated and will soon be available on elections.ca."
 
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