2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[W. K. Lis]

Which candidate would bring back the Yonge Street Mall?

See link.

Historicist: The Yonge Street Mall​

A brief 1970s experiment turned our main drag into a pedestrian-only zone.

Yonge Street Mall, circa 1971. City of Toronto Archives, Fonds 200, Series 1465, File 312, Item 55.

Wonder how New York City's pedestrianization doing?

 

[Northern Light]

The Star out with an article discussing a new Forum Poll, along with another poll taken in the last couple of days by Liason and the prior Mainstreet poll.

Olivia Chow expands her lead as the front-runner in Toronto’s mayoral campaign, says a new poll

Former NDP MP Olivia Chow has the most support of decided voters, according to Forum Research and two other pollsters.

www.thestar.com

Across the board consensus that Chow is the leader, though some discrepancies on the extent of said lead.

Some variation though as you go lower in the ranks.

Liason:

(% of decided voters)

Chow 20
Saunders 11
Matlow 10
Bradford 8
Hunter 8
Bailao 5
Peruzza 1
Furey 1


Forum:

Chow 36
Saunders 18
Matlow10
Hunter 10
Bailao 7
Bradford 6

Comments:

Matlow has very little time, if any, left to begin to gain traction. I still don't get Chow's lead. Right wing vote seems to be coalescing around Saunders
Hunter has actually picked up a bit......

But 2 polls have Bailao in single digits and behind Hunter............not what I would have been expecting at this juncture.

 

[Fresco]

First debate is tonight

First Toronto mayor debate tonight

Some of the candidates running in Toronto's mayoral race will square off in a debate tonight at the Daily Bread Food Bank.

www.cp24.com

 

[tiffer24]

Saunders has already said he will not be partipating in tonight's first debate.

 

[Pacer]

Saunders has already said he will not be partipating in tonight's first debate.

His team have found out blaming bike lanes and underfunded police for everyone of the cities struggles is not a debate winning strategy

 

[picard102]

Not enjoying the idea that the Anyone But Chow contingent will have to coalesce behind Saunders.

 

[TonyV]

It really is becoming a Chow - Saunders matchup. I see Matlow and Bailão backing out and endorsing Chow (can’t conceivably see either endorsing Saunders. I could be quite incorrect there, though). Saunders will get suburban support for sure.

Most impressed with the variety of candidates, though. I call it a good thing (except that we need ranked ballots in this situation!).

Strong powers have lured many to the race.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Chow has been ahead for a while; I would certainly understand why left-leaning voters would switch to her when faced with the prospect of Saunders being elected.

But notice how Chow hasn't said a thing yet. She's hoping to slide in riding on her name recognition and the competition's paralysis of choice.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

It really is becoming a Chow - Saunders matchup. I see Matlow and Bailão backing out and endorsing Chow (can’t conceivably see either endorsing Saunders. I could be quite incorrect there, though). Saunders will get suburban support for sure.

Most impressed with the variety of candidates, though. I call it a good thing (except that we need ranked ballots in this situation!).

Strong powers have lured many to the race.

I don't see Ana Bailao backing Olivia Chow at all. Seems Josh Matlow isn't going anywhere.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

But notice how Chow hasn't said a thing yet. She's hoping to slide in riding on her name recognition and the competition's paralysis of choice.

Yep. She is barely visible with the hope that her name will carry her over the winning line. It looks like she is on her way to a victory at the moment, however, that's what everyone thought once the 2014 mayor race started to really heat up. We all know what happened. I'm curious to see how she does in the debates.

I'm waiting to hear if John Tory is actually going to endorse a candidate (likely Ana Bailao) in the next few weeks. It really could be a game changer. I have no doubts that the Bailao campaign, the Bradford campaign and the Saunders campaign have been reaching out to Tory.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I'm waiting to hear if John Tory is actually going to endorse a candidate (likely Ana Bailao) in the next few weeks. It really could be a game changer.

IDK, if I'm a woman candidate do I want an endorsement from a former mayor who shagged his young employee(s?) and allegedly used his corporate connections at MLSE to keep her quiet and out of sight, before ultimately resigning in shame over the matter? It would be like a candidate for NY governor seeking Andrew Cuomo's endorsement. No thanks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624238076909305856

 

[SJD_Toronto]

IDK, if I'm a woman candidate do I want an endorsement from a former mayor who shagged his young employee(s?) and allegedly used his corporate connections at MLSE to keep her quiet and out of sight, before ultimately resigning in shame over the matter? It would be like a candidate for NY governor seeking Andrew Cuomo's endorsement. No thanks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624238076909305856

Yet polls showed voters would have likely put John Tory back into office if he had run in this race. That tells me there are enough Torontonians would be open to him returning to the position of mayor regardless of the affair he had. Point being is that if that is the case, a popular former mayor like Tory backing another mayoral candidate could help in stopping Olivia Chow from winning. This happened to Bonnie Crombie in 2014 when Hazel McCallion backed her just before the election happened - Crombie went from likely coming in second place to winning in a landslide. If John Tory endorses someone, like Ana Bailao, I don't think that would lead to a landslide win. More likely it could help lock up a win over Chow, who is still running a campaign that screams her name is only thing you really need to elect her.

We will see what happens.

 

[picard102]

IDK, if I'm a woman candidate do I want an endorsement from a former mayor who shagged his young employee(s?) and allegedly used his corporate connections at MLSE to keep her quiet and out of sight, before ultimately resigning in shame over the matter? It would be like a candidate for NY governor seeking Andrew Cuomo's endorsement. No thanks.

She likely would know most people don't care that much, and don't put much stock in the allegations.

 

[Admiral Beez]

This happened to Bonnie Crombie in 2014 when Hazel McCallion backed her just before the election happened - Crombie went from likely coming in second place to winning in a landslide.

Good point, but I'm not sure it's analogous. Hazel was the only mayor Mississauga had ever known and, notwithstanding (or because of) being the Queen of Sprawl and a leading proponent of car-dependent suburbs, was immensely popular.

Hazel McCallion had the Midas touch, whereas the John Tory touch has another meaning altogether.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

Point being is that if that is the case, a popular former mayor like Tory backing another mayoral candidate could help another c

Good point, but I'm not sure it's analogous. Hazel was the only mayor Mississauga had ever known and, notwithstanding (or because of) being the Queen of Sprawl and a leading proponent of car-dependent suburbs, was immensely popular.

Hazel McCallion had the Midas touch, whereas the John Tory touch has another meaning altogether.

Hazel had the magic touch. She was the queen maker in 2014, however, if the data has shown that lots of residents would rather have John Tory back but they can't have him back, an endorsement of someone else who was politicially close to him could help. My sense is a majority of residents would see past the affair he had as they liked having him as mayor. Look what happened with President Bill Clinton in the 1990s and early 2000s in the United States. While he didn't resign from office over his affair, he left office with a high approval rating because a majority Americans liked how he handle his job. If he could have run for a third term, he could have easily won again.

I'm not saying a Tory endorsement would be a for sure game changer - it could be something to explore using as a campaign tactic.